==== Food Horizons ==== On this page we collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes, related to food, health and wellness. This is a preliminary step in the design of [[food scenarios]], that we then translated into a [[latelab_menu|tasting menu]] for [[http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/|Latelab Open Sauces]] at the Edinburgh Science Festival. See the whole design process on the [[food futures]] page. ==== Current situation ==== (looking back from 50-100 years to today, focusing on problems and possibilities) * hygiene, pasteurisation and the (anti)bacterial movement (better understanding of pathogens, pesticides, antibiotics and the rising dangers of antibiotic resistance) * industrialisation of food production, focus on efficiency and feeding more people; less focus on taste, more on nutrition * increased use of sugar, fat and meat (1995 the first deep-fried mars bar in Scotland) * proliferation of cold chain transport - larger volume and longer distances (allowing for delocalisation and specialisation of production), availability of a wide range of products * consumption patterns are changing: USA influence, food from around the world, seasonal flattening; food consumption moves from social to functional * disposal: city scale, burned rather than composted * wide spread of (bio-accumulative) toxins (packaging, hormones, slow-acting poisons, also in organic farming) * the battle between bacteria and chemicals (and people who prefer one or the other) * complex food distribution and production (present: focus on reduction of complexity and shortening of supply-chains) * growing awareness of health risks * present: refocusing on the local, respecialisation, relocalisation, bringing back forgotten varieties and species, focus on (hyper)seasonal products * vicious circle of more people - more food: focus on cheap and voluminous rather than nutritious; lowering of household's food budgets - health risks due to consumption of junk food * dangerous footprint of meat production (concentration of animal manure) and other industrial byproducts * internet is changing distribution and consumption patterns, as well as non-industrial food production; information spreads faster and supply-chains are becoming more convoluted and personalised * proliferation of foodies movements focused on healthy, tasty, virtuoso food preparation and consumption; * open source food movements * diet cults (and disconnection from food production and waste) ====drivers==== Social * Health * Diet * Aging * Urbanisation * Food Culture Technological * Agricultural Technology * GMO / Synthetic biology * Internet of Things * Customisation * Antibiotic availability * Food science Economic * Energy * Financing * Equality * Dominant crops * Scale * Patenting Environment * Pollution * Unpredictability * Degradation * Availability of raw materials (water, seeds, soil...) Political * Conservatism * Nationalism * Unconditional Basic Income * Food Security * Transnational Agreements * Laws and Regulations Thematically clustered drivers: {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585393644/}} \\ {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585072463/}} \\ {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585034475/}} \\ ====causal layered analysis==== Analysis of thematically clustered drivers looking at their social causes, underlying worldviews and cultural myths: {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604606344/}} \\ {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604224645/}} \\ {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604554614/}} \\ ====Drivers in detail ==== Horizon: less than 50 years. ===Technological=== * Development of "resource-efficient" large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation...) [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?|(in french), article on Reporterre on French government's strategy towards "industrial agro-ecology"]] * > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4054|(in French), article on Reporterre on adverse environmental effects of large-scale methanisation]] * Development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share [[http://rue89.nouvelobs.com/2014/03/29/mobilisation-generale-contre-grand-mechant-marche-transatlantique-251038|(in French), article on how the US-EU free-trade zone will bring GMO food to Europe]] * > unknown health effects * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers ([[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12267561|promoted by Right-to-Food special rapporteur Olivier de Schutter]]) > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects and mitigating the risk of such effects. * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23576143|the lab-grown hamburger]]) * > only for very rich people, with [[http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/08/is-lab-grown-meat-good-for-us/278778/|unknown impact on health]]. ===Environmental=== * Increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. * Changes in desertification and rainfall patterns > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. * Climate change * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, e.g. Floods & Droughts * > localized food scarcity; * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients. * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. * See detailed results from IPCC report below. * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food * > starvation for specific locations & poor people * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population * > geopolitical instability. * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on "traveling food" prices > when combined with increased inequities in personal wealth (see Economical Ttrends), reduce of food ingredients availability for most of the population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food * > starvation for specific locations & poor people * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population * > geopolitical instability. reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FGDall.pdf {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a ==Change in Plant Crops Production== * India: global loss in cereal production. * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans. * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy * Europe: * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates. * Moderate change in Continental North. * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates. * Australia: global decrease. ==Change in Livestock Production== * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy * Europe: * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields. * Italy & Netherlands: bad for mozzarella & gouda * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia. * South America: * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle. * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields. {{ :future_fabulators:giec_figure_ge_ne_rale_-_copie.jpg?800 |}} ===Economic=== * Increased globalization of economy * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; * > geopolitical instability. * Hyper-[[http://www.postcarbon.org/article/305585-specialization-and-globalization-genies-at-our|specialisation]] of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; * > geopolitical instability. * Increased financiarisation of economy * [[http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodprices.html|Adverse effects of speculation on food prices]] > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; * > geopolitical instability. * [[http://www.inegalites.fr/spip.php?page=analyse&id_article=1911&id_groupe=20&id_rubrique=28&id_mot=15|Increasing inequities in personal wealth]] > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food * > starvation for specific locations & poor people * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population * > geopolitical instability. * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4806|(in French) integral cooperatives]], local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives * > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale * > better global health at local population scale. * Global game changer: if a major demographic group, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income. It is about to be [[http://bien.ch/fr/node/417|voted by the population in Switzerland]] and has been proposed as a [[http://basicincome2013.eu/|popular initiative in Europe]] * > [[http://www.projet-decroissance.net/?p=1640|depending on how it would be defined]], it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results. ===Social & Cultural === * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. * Increase of urban population * Massive amount of energy used to bring food to urban citizens * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food * > starvation for specific locations & poor people * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population * > geopolitical instability. * > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to massive transport * > adverse health effects. * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food * > starvation for specific locations & poor people * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population * > geopolitical instability. * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) * > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture * > pollution * > adverse health effects * > low food diversity * > adverse health effects * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) * > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ? * Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health. ===Political=== * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http://blogs.mediapart.fr/blog/malto-cortese/221113/agriculteurs-et-jardiniers-seront-ils-bientot-obliges-de-cultiver-dans-la-clandestinite|(in French), an article from Mediapart on seeds patenting]] * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture. * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food * > starvation for specific locations & poor people * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population * > geopolitical instability. * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements [[http://www.lesinrocks.com/2012/05/29/actualite/le-fantasme-dune-arme-de-nonazis-11262225/|(in French), an article from les Inrocks analysing the situation of far-right parties in Europe]] > (violent) incentive back to traditional culture, and therefore cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ? ====misc/notes/sort==== "People tend to find the taste of Soylent to be familiar: the predominant sensation is one of doughiness. The liquid is smooth but grainy in your mouth, and it has a yeasty, comforting blandness about it." [[http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2014/05/12/140512fa_fact_widdicombe?currentPage=all&mobify=0|Could Soylent Replace Food?]] * Several food experts on food futures: http://time.com/3482452/future-of-food/ * e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn * e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables * https://delicious.com/zzkt/food * http://agalmic.org/tagged/food * infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/ * historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html * "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honeywell_316#Kitchen_Computer * "Bul­li­pedia is a pro­fes­sional tool based on the cod­i­fi­ca­tion of a cre­ative discipline." from elBulli Foundation. http://hackingbullipedia.org/bullipedia3-2 * "A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity" by René Redzepi. http://nyjournalofbooks.com/review/work-progress-notes-food-cooking-and-creativity * "TASTED is a project that investigates the way we taste food and its flavor." http://www.simona-derosa.com/works/#/tasted/ * network analysis "Flavor network and the principles of food pairing". http://www.nature.com/srep/2011/111215/srep00196/full/srep00196.html * general principles of cooking with coconut milk. http://ask.metafilter.com/257507/What-are-the-general-principles-for-cooking-with-coconut-milk * An app for flavour profiling. https://www.gastrograph.com/