==== Prediction Markets ====

A tool for collating group opinions (as they change over time) about well defined events using market principles. A probabilistic forecast of events.

  * [[wp>Prediction_market]]
  * http://predictionbook.com/
  * long bets

** commentry / reading / notes**
  * http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets
  * http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_80_forecast.html
  * http://ashokarao.com/2013/07/04/on-bets/
  * [[wp>Calibrated_probability_assessment]]
  * [[futarchy]]