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forecasting [2008-01-13 23:31] 121.45.187.182forecasting [2019-03-13 11:18] (current) maja
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-==== Six Rules for Effective Forecasting ====+==== Effective Forecasting ====
  
 "The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present." "The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present."
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- +=== some other rules for Effective Forecasting === 
- + from Paul Saffo's talk at [[:long now|the long now foundation]]  summarised by stewart brand
-==== some other rules for Effective Forecasting ==== +
- from Paul Saffo's talk at [[the long now foundation]]  summarised by stewart brand+
  
 Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster's job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the "cone of uncertainty" on a subject.  Where are the edges of what might happen?  (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future--- next decade has more surprises in store than next week.) Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster's job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the "cone of uncertainty" on a subject.  Where are the edges of what might happen?  (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future--- next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)
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 --Stewart Brand --Stewart Brand
  
----- 
  
 +==== Trend Forecasting (design) ====
 +
 +(originating in fashion and textile design)
 +
 +<blockquote>  Lidewij Edelkoort is one of the world’s most renowned trend forecasters. From her creation of innovative trend books and audiovisuals since the 1980s to lifestyle analysis and research conducted for the world’s leading brands today, Lidewij has pioneered trend forecasting as a profession.</blockquote>
 +From http://www.edelkoort.com/
 +
 +
 +<blockquote>Helping our clients to adopt "the right approach" in maintaining an up-to-date presence. Enabling our clients to stay ahead of the curve as we anticipate emerging trends. Detecting and interpreting trends, sociocultural movements that define new creative directions, new lifestyles and customer expectations. Creating synergy between marketing and design in order to propose strategic tools to our clients.</blockquote>
 +
 +From: http://www.promostyl.com/
 +
 +<blockquote>Stylesight is one of the leading content and technology solutions for professionals in the style, fashion and design sectors. We deliver global information and a visionary online workspace designed to help you anticipate and analyze an ever-changing marketplace.</blockquote>
 +http://www.stylesight.com/
 +
 +<blockquote>Fashion forecasting is a global career that focuses on upcoming trends. A fashion forecaster predicts the colors, fabrics and styles that will be presented on the runway and in the stores for the upcoming seasons. The concept applies to not one, but all levels of the fashion industry including haute couture, ready-to-wear, mass market, and street wear. Trend forecasting is an overall process that focuses on other industries such as automobiles, medicine, food and beverages, literature, and home furnishings.</blockquote>
 +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fashion_forecasting
 +
 +Online resources, indexes, books etc:
 +http://libraries.uc.edu/libraries/daap/resources/researchguides/design/forecasting.html
 +[[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bwy8eTupdOeKcWVmRUZHV09vOVU/view|Practical Foresight Guide]], one of many guides to working with futures and foresight
 +
 +----
  
 +see also [[:future fabulators/non predictive strategy]], [[:future fabulators/scenario building]]
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