| Both sides previous revision Previous revision Next revision | Previous revision |
| forecasting_and_prediction [2014-02-18 03:26] – nik | forecasting_and_prediction [2014-06-27 09:56] (current) – [Specific Timeframes] nik |
|---|
| |
| ====Prediction, Preemption, Presumption==== | ====Prediction, Preemption, Presumption==== |
| | |
| | Prediction, Preemption, Presumption. How Big Data Threatens Big Picture Privacy. Ian Kerr & Jessica Earle |
| | http://www.stanfordlawreview.org/online/privacy-and-big-data/prediction-preemption-presumption |
| | |
| | * "We call predictions that attempt to anticipate the likely consequences of a person’s action **consequential predictions.**" |
| | * "When you permit iTunes Genius to anticipate which songs you will like or Amazon’s recommendation system to predict what books you will find interesting, these systems are not generating predictions about your conduct or its likely consequences. Rather, they are trying to stroke your preferences in order to sell goods and services. Many of today’s big data industries are focused on projections of this material sort, which we refer to as **preferential predictions**." |
| | * " Unlike consequential and preferential predictions, **preemptive predictions** are intentionally used to diminish a person’s range of future options. Preemptive predictions assess the likely consequences of allowing or disallowing a person to act in a certain way. In contrast to consequential or preferential predictions, preemptive predictions do not usually adopt the perspective of the actor." |
| |
| <blockquote>The power of big data’s preemptive predictions and its potential for harm must be carefully understood alongside the concept of risk. When sociologist Ulrich Beck coined the term risk society in the 1990s, he was not suggesting that society is riskier or more dangerous nowadays than before; rather, he argued that society is reorganizing itself in response to risk. Beck believes that in modern society, “the social production of wealth is systematically accompanied by the social production of risks,” and that, accordingly, “the problems and conflicts relating to distribution in a society of scarcity overlap with the problems and conflicts that arise from the production, definition, and distribution of techno-scientifically produced risks.”[13] | <blockquote>The power of big data’s preemptive predictions and its potential for harm must be carefully understood alongside the concept of risk. When sociologist Ulrich Beck coined the term risk society in the 1990s, he was not suggesting that society is riskier or more dangerous nowadays than before; rather, he argued that society is reorganizing itself in response to risk. Beck believes that in modern society, “the social production of wealth is systematically accompanied by the social production of risks,” and that, accordingly, “the problems and conflicts relating to distribution in a society of scarcity overlap with the problems and conflicts that arise from the production, definition, and distribution of techno-scientifically produced risks.”[13] |
| --Prediction, Preemption, Presumption. How Big Data Threatens Big Picture Privacy. Ian Kerr & Jessica Earle | --Prediction, Preemption, Presumption. How Big Data Threatens Big Picture Privacy. Ian Kerr & Jessica Earle |
| http://www.stanfordlawreview.org/online/privacy-and-big-data/prediction-preemption-presumption | http://www.stanfordlawreview.org/online/privacy-and-big-data/prediction-preemption-presumption |
| | |
| </blockquote> | </blockquote> |
| | |
| | |
| | ====Specific Timeframes==== |
| | * [[future fabulators/World in 2025]] |
| | * [[future fabulators/World in 2030]] |
| | * [[future fabulators/World in 2034]], etc |
| | |
| | |
| | |
| |
| |
| |
nik