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--- future_fabulators:food_scenarios [2014-04-03 18:54] – nik
+++ future_fabulators:food_scenarios [2014-10-14 08:11] (current) – [Design process LateLab] nik
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-==== Food Scenarios ====
+==== Food scenarios ====
-'Four Generic Futures' from [[food futures]] scenarios...
+'Four Generic Futures' from [[food futures]] scenarios, looking at the relationship between food, well-being and the environment, based on basic [[horizon scanning]] and Causal Layered Analysis of change drivers. The scenarios were translated into two thematic food events.
-==== Continue ====
+The first event is a five course [[latelab_menu|tasting dinner]] (with the Discipline scenario split into two courses) for the Edinburgh Science Festival. We designed dishes that would illustrate the tastes, ingredients and processes likely to be used in food and cooking in each of the four scenarios. At the dinner, as a dish was served, the host proposed discussion topics/questions for that course, in the form of a short speech and a toast that used the dish instead of a slideshow to illustrate the scenario. The participants were asked to have a conversation about the scenario and the questions. They could take notes on the table cloth, guided by a 'table host' - a moderator who helped guide the discussions. The discussions were summarised at the dessert table.
-The myth of anthropocentrism is alive and well in the majority of the population. Climate change that effects productive food environments are mitigated through large scale geo-engineering. Oil is still the dominant fuel, coming from non-conventional sources. Pricing of eco-system services (such as RED or TEEB) thrives. Food production and distribution are largely automatised. Food is grown, monitored and transported through artificial systems within and in between large cities. This lead to an increased disconnect from the supply chain, that is driven by its financialisation and high-frequency trading (farmville subsidies…). Through advanced tracking and tracing technologies, supply chain information is relatively available and transparent (for those who make an effort and know where to look). With a proliferation of home delivery and disposal services, the supply chain extends into the kitchen. Although there seems to be much choice, the majority of food on offer is rather homogeneous, which prompts food conscious consumers to search for more authenticity in their diet, that comes at a price. For the majority of the population, food is more about quantity than quality, functional entertainment rather than wholesome nourishment. Cooking shows are the order of the day, where cooking competitions and celebrity chefs’ take-aways turn food preparation into an instantly gratifying game. The intensive agriculture, including creation and spread of GMOs has proven fragile to propagation of diseases (in animals, plants and humans), hence extensive disease (propagation) controls are in place. In humans, chronic diet-related illnesses are rampant, from allergies to obesity, cancers and heart failures.
+The second event is the opening of the [[http://www.z33.be/en/projects/future-fictions|Future Fictions]] exhibition, where the scenarios are translated into a [[future_fictions_menu|flow of finger-foods]], served in four phases, according to the scenarios.
-As a response to chemically enhanced monocultures, organic agriculture continues scaling up and industrialising, whereas urban agriculture is optimised using technological solutions. Urban dwellers enjoy the benefits of densely populated cities by using services such as collective purchasing of food, leftovers-sharing networks, a wide variety of supper-clubs and pop-up restaurants. On the other hand, pockets of communities focused on small, slow and local food chains continue to exist, but appear rather isolated and fragmented in their attempts to change the status quo. Their impact isn’t felt by people outside of the communities themselves. After decades of trying to connect to each other and the world at large (and failing in most cases to scale up or in other ways create a larger impact), these communities become increasingly entrenched, risk averse, xenophobic and even (militantly) conservative.
+=== Continue ===
-{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13601618153/}} \\
+<html><a href="https://learnhowtomakesushi.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/designnori01a.jpg"><img src="https://learnhowtomakesushi.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/designnori01a.jpg" width="700"></a></html>
-==== Collapse ====
+(photo credit: ...)
-The myth of unlimited growth has become cancerous. The industrial expansion devoured everything it could and is now beginning to digest itself. Antibiotic resistance is one of the major threats to this fear-driven society. One of the first effects was the collapse of meat and dairy production, that eventually led to a series of brutal resource and microbe wars, malnutrition and in many cases even starvation. The (literal) hunt for animal protein is widespread. Animals previously considered non-edible have become sought after delicacies. While most people’s diet is forced veganism, there is an increase of insectivores and invasivores. Jelly-fish has become a staple in coastal regions.
+[[food scenarios continue|Continue scenario]] where the world continues business as usual, organic agriculture is industrialised, free market reigns and consumers are addicted to tastebud stimulation...[[food scenarios continue|Read more]]
-The unpredictability, fragmentation, opacity and breakdown of the food supply chains increases a sense of urgency. The synthetic food supplements is a hugely profitable industry. This is a culture of feast and famine, balancing between certain death and decadent debauchery. Masses are entertained in collective Binge & Purge parties, while the select foodie elites indulge in decadent, wasteful eating of endangered species. On TV, the new hype is a reality TV where Hunger Games meets Master Chef. On the internet, cannibalism is organised through social networks, with an alarming rise in prion diseases. The internet is a cesspit of misinformation and greenwashing campaigns.
-As the short supply chains become unsustainable due to soil degradation and extreme weather, it becomes impossible to survive exclusively on a local environment. There is little or no arable land left, that gives raise to enforced nomadims, aka plagues of human locusts (that are of course televised). The militant transition towns have moved underground, cultivating mushrooms and guarding giant apocalyptic fermentation vats (the only non-contaminated food available for vast majority of population). Bathing in digestive enzymes attempts to replace antibiotic protection, giving rise to funky rituals.
+=== Collapse ===
-A suicide cult of The Last Supper Club (with optional organ donation to Michelin star restaurants) gains popularity in major metropolitan areas. Most of humanity is sinking into a toxic "soylent green" marsh, while the select minority meets their death through consumption of exclusively poisonous last specimens of a species. Wherever you turn, there is death and decay, with no hope of redemption.
-{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13601627793/}}
+<html><a href="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02005/Da-Vinci-remastere_2005057i.jpg"><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02005/Da-Vinci-remastere_2005057i.jpg" width="700"></a></html>
-====Discipline====
+(photo credit: ...)
-After a series of extreme weather events, economic crises and pandemics, it was time for a disciplined descent. The local, national and transnational institutions from the top-down and grass roots initiatives from the bottom-up have began regulating and curbing excess in all aspects of life, from population control to amount and type of food consumed. The regulatory system has imposed taxes and fines enforced by the lifestyle police: production, distribution and consumption of food are highly constrained and regulated. This is the heyday of certification bureaucracy and micro-accountability mafia. People and products are traceable and information-rich, making use of the advanced internet of things. The "quantified self" has entered into the supply chain, making it possible for personalised diets and medicine to be delivered. Strict diets are followed as religions. Cuisine vegetal is one of the least strict regimes followed by many, in order to lower meat production. Meat and fish are still consumed, but rationed and used only as a luxury product.
+[[food scenarios collapse|Collapse scenario]], a post "resource wars" environment, where industrial food systems and agribusiness collapsed... [[food scenarios collapse|Read more]]
-Where top-down regulations aren’t effective, social enforcement is: neighbours and friends will report misconduct "for your own good", and punishments are readily accepted as character building. Supply chains are as short as possible, creating small community enclaves with strict immigration procedures. In these enclaves cradle-to-cradle practices are created and protected through customs and rituals. Seed exchanges are authorised and regulated through transnational social networks. Bali (and its traditional agricultural system) and Switzerland are depicted as ideal social organisations where community, religion and economy are tightly intertwined. Food is produced using sustainable farming technologies and ultra-optimised agro-ecology and smart feedback systems. The food supply chain is contained in a circular economy with recycling as a highly valued activity. Outside of the supply chain, environmental protection and rewilding are attempts to conserve what little non-polluted environment is left.
-{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13601636373/}}
+=== Discipline ===
-====Transform====
+<html><a href="https://lh3.ggpht.com/-AjKw3TcLhwE/T63dubHVEkI/AAAAAAAAHzM/NSNxoEGHyFc/s1600/interior-design-photography-food-photography-tablescape-decor-kitchen-decor+%285%29.jpg"><img src="https://lh3.ggpht.com/-AjKw3TcLhwE/T63dubHVEkI/AAAAAAAAHzM/NSNxoEGHyFc/s1600/interior-design-photography-food-photography-tablescape-decor-kitchen-decor+%285%29.jpg" width="700"></a></html>
-[[/future_fabulators/food_scenarios_transform|Scenario]]
+(photo credit: ...)
-{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13601624925/}}
+[[food scenarios discipline|Discipline scenario]], where humanity learns from our mistakes and enforces/begins creating a culture of descent... [[food scenarios discipline|Read more]]
+===Transform===
+<html><a href="http://is.asia-city.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/item_image/tippling-club.jpg"><img src="http://is.asia-city.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/item_image/tippling-club.jpg" width="700"></a></html>
+(photo credit: ... / Tippling Club)
+[[food_scenarios_transform|Transform scenario]], a future thriving on closed-loop industries, living in green food-forests or Bucolicities, and enjoying "astro-gastro"... [[food scenarios transform|Read more]]
+----
+==== Design process LateLab====
+The scenarios above focusing on the evolution of the relationship between food, well-being and the environment are designed by Nik Gaffney, Rasa Alksnyte, Michka Melo and Maja Kuzmanovic in April 2014. In this experiment we tested two techniques from our [[background|background research]]: the CLA (or causal layered analysis) and "four generic futures". CLA helped us narrow down the world-views and cultural myths behind a forest of change drivers that influence the future of food (such as antibiotic resistance, diet cults, soil degradation, financialisation of food markets, etc.). The three dominant but co-existing myths appeared to be the infinite growth, hybrid openness and "small, slow and local".
+To construct the scenarios we used "the four generic futures" technique from the Manoa School. The person behind this method is Jim Dator, one of the head figures of the futures field. Dator suggested that in most (or even all) scenario planning exercises, people come up with variations on the four archetypal futures: continue, collapse, discipline or transform. In our case, the Continue scenario was about increasing efficiency of food production, distribution and consumption; the Collapse scenario happened post "resource wars", evolving into a strange hybrid of decadent debauchery and food scarcity, culminating in consensual cannibalism and suicidal tendencies in the "last supper club"; Discipline bifurcated into a bureaucratic certification and audit heaven populated by quantified selves and a network of rather conservative Transition Regions; and finally in the Transform scenario people live in Bucolicities - metropolis-sized food forests with biomimetic drones delivering delicacies grown in labs on Earth as well as the moon.
+We then translated the scenarios into the types of tastes, ingredients and processes that we could use in Scotland in early spring, and created the sketch of a five course [[latelab_menu|tasting menu]], that we refined with Ginny Hunter, the chef who prepared the food in Edinburgh. The final menu consisted of a wild garlic soup, a beetroot and blue cheese tart, fried potato-skins with seaweed, vegetarian shepherd’s pie, bubblegum panna-cotta with absinthe truffles, served paired with local beers and whiskeys. This was the first time that we created a food event where we didn’t cook ourselves. It has proven feasible, although we concluded that we prefer being in the kitchen ourselves…
+Instead of cooking the dinner, Nik and Maja were hosts of the evening. We invited the participants to imagine being at a gala dinner, where delegates from different futures came to speak to them about food in the times in which they lived. As the budget for the event was tight, Maja role-played each of the delegates and proposed toasts to resilience of food and cooking, to surviving the collapse of food and agribusiness, to understanding our limits and eating within them, to continued intensification of taste and farming, and finally to openness and transformation of food systems.
+As with the original [[:/open_sauces/|Open Sauces dinner]], we used the dishes to illustrate the scenarios and asked the participants a set of questions that would help them get deeper into the different worlds, as well as reflect on what would need to happen in the present in order for them to end up in the different scenarios themselves.
+==== Design process Future Fictions ====
+We adapted the menu to a different season and different context. The research and design are presented as part of FoAM's [[future_fictions|Futures Lab]], as part of the exhibition.