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future_fabulators:horizon_scanning [2014-02-18 03:57] majafuture_fabulators:horizon_scanning [2014-03-04 07:08] (current) maja
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 ==== Horizon Scanning ==== ==== Horizon Scanning ====
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 +How do we create the big picture in which our core question or issue is embedded? How do we identify constants and variables? How do we talk about change in the world on a macro scale? How do we filter and select things that are important to a possible future scenario? These and other questions informed our inquiry into existing horizon scanning (aka environmental scannning) tools and processes. We collected some interesting examples below:
  
 <blockquote>Almost all foresight work starts with or involves Horizon Scanning. ‘Horizon, or Environmental, Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to (1) better understand the nature and pace of change in that environment, and (2) identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments"</blockquote> <blockquote>Almost all foresight work starts with or involves Horizon Scanning. ‘Horizon, or Environmental, Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to (1) better understand the nature and pace of change in that environment, and (2) identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments"</blockquote>
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   * [[http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/|Online collection of trends]]   * [[http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/|Online collection of trends]]
   * [[http://www.trendwiki.fi/en/|TrendWiki]]   * [[http://www.trendwiki.fi/en/|TrendWiki]]
-  * [[http://www.futurescaper.com/|Futurescraper]] +  * [[http://www.futurescaper.com/|Futurescaper]] 
-  * [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/wls-three-horizons-18-sept-2013|Three horizons]] +  * [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/wls-three-horizons-18-sept-2013|Three horizons]] and [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S04.pdf|The hero's Journey across Turbulent Systems]] by Wendy Schulz et al
-  * [[http://www.slideshare.net/dajarvis/mgt581-sensing-the-future|Overview of environmental scanning]]+
   * [[http://www.superflux.in/work/tarotcards|Synbio Tarot]] downloadable from this page   * [[http://www.superflux.in/work/tarotcards|Synbio Tarot]] downloadable from this page
 +
 +<blockquote>
 +
 +Thirteen rules for scanning (by D. Jarvis):
 +
 +  * The future is already here, you need to find it
 +  * Look for clues, not comprehensive evidence
 +  * Go deep, explore, focus broadly
 +  * Do not ignore evidence to the contrary, have an open mind
 +  * Take a global perspective
 +  * Look for the novel, unfamiliar and uninteresting
 +  * Look for interactions and combinations
 +  * Study history to understand the context
 +  * Make scanning an ongoing, integrated activity
 +  * Make scanning a shared, social process
 +  * Identify credible sources
 +  * Scanning should be relevant (to the organisation)
 +  * Get out from behind the computer - the future isn’t online:
 +    * "The future is not yet written down, it is concentrated in people and places - find and engage with remarkable people
 +    * Learning journeys (seek out and learn from innovators and thinkers, have immersive experiences ("Finding the future: Why "learning Journeys Give and Adaptive Edge" Nicole-Anne Boyer)
 +
 +Existing scanning frameworks:
 +  * STEEP(VD): Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, (Values), (Demographic)
 +  * DEGEST: Demography, Environment, Government, Economy, Society, Technology
 +  * PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, (Legal), (Environmental)
 +  * FAFA (an [[integral futures]] method: 
 +    * Find: where and how to look for scanning hits
 +    * Analyse: use cross-level analysis (as well as causal-layered analysis) to expand the interpretation of the resulting scanning hits
 +    * Frame: create a framework for organising insights from the scanning hits
 +    * Apply: use the insights to inform the subsequent phases of the project
 +
 +
 +Phases of environmental scanning:
 +  * Framing (understanding the need)
 +  * Planning (sources and methods)
 +  * Executing (monitor sources, perform searches…)
 +  * Sense making (determine the relevance and implications)
 +  * Adapting (review and adjust the system)
 +
 +Keep a scanning journal: title, source, summary, category (STEEP), creating/confirming/countering (and why), impact and relevance
 +
 +</blockquote>
 +
 +From [[http://www.slideshare.net/dajarvis/mgt581-sensing-the-future|Overview of environmental scanning]] by D. Jarvis
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