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future_fabulators:horizon_scanning [2014-02-21 01:50] – majafuture_fabulators:horizon_scanning [2014-03-04 07:08] (current) – maja
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 ==== Horizon Scanning ==== ==== Horizon Scanning ====
 +
 +How do we create the big picture in which our core question or issue is embedded? How do we identify constants and variables? How do we talk about change in the world on a macro scale? How do we filter and select things that are important to a possible future scenario? These and other questions informed our inquiry into existing horizon scanning (aka environmental scannning) tools and processes. We collected some interesting examples below:
  
 <blockquote>Almost all foresight work starts with or involves Horizon Scanning. ‘Horizon, or Environmental, Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to (1) better understand the nature and pace of change in that environment, and (2) identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments"</blockquote> <blockquote>Almost all foresight work starts with or involves Horizon Scanning. ‘Horizon, or Environmental, Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to (1) better understand the nature and pace of change in that environment, and (2) identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments"</blockquote>
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   * [[http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/|Online collection of trends]]   * [[http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/|Online collection of trends]]
   * [[http://www.trendwiki.fi/en/|TrendWiki]]   * [[http://www.trendwiki.fi/en/|TrendWiki]]
-  * [[http://www.futurescaper.com/|Futurescraper]]+  * [[http://www.futurescaper.com/|Futurescaper]]
   * [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/wls-three-horizons-18-sept-2013|Three horizons]] and [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S04.pdf|The hero's Journey across Turbulent Systems]] by Wendy Schulz et al   * [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/wls-three-horizons-18-sept-2013|Three horizons]] and [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S04.pdf|The hero's Journey across Turbulent Systems]] by Wendy Schulz et al
   * [[http://www.superflux.in/work/tarotcards|Synbio Tarot]] downloadable from this page   * [[http://www.superflux.in/work/tarotcards|Synbio Tarot]] downloadable from this page
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   * DEGEST: Demography, Environment, Government, Economy, Society, Technology   * DEGEST: Demography, Environment, Government, Economy, Society, Technology
   * PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, (Legal), (Environmental)   * PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, (Legal), (Environmental)
 +  * FAFA (an [[integral futures]] method: 
 +    * Find: where and how to look for scanning hits
 +    * Analyse: use cross-level analysis (as well as causal-layered analysis) to expand the interpretation of the resulting scanning hits
 +    * Frame: create a framework for organising insights from the scanning hits
 +    * Apply: use the insights to inform the subsequent phases of the project
 +
  
 Phases of environmental scanning: Phases of environmental scanning:
  • future_fabulators/horizon_scanning.1392947453.txt.gz
  • Last modified: 2014-02-21 01:50
  • by maja