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forecasting [2008-01-13 23:29] – 121.45.187.182forecasting [2014-02-26 06:46] – [Affective Forecasting] maja
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-==== Six Rules for Effective Forecasting ====+==== Effective Forecasting ====
  
 "The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present." "The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present."
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-==== some other rules for Efeective Forecasting ==== 
- from paul saffo's talk at [[the long now foundation]]  summarised by stewart brand 
  
-<file>+ 
 + 
 +=== some other rules for Effective Forecasting === 
 + from Paul Saffo's talk at [[:long now|the long now foundation]]  summarised by stewart brand 
 Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster's job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the "cone of uncertainty" on a subject.  Where are the edges of what might happen?  (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future--- next decade has more surprises in store than next week.) Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster's job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the "cone of uncertainty" on a subject.  Where are the edges of what might happen?  (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future--- next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)
  
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 Saffo ended with a photo he took of a jar by the cash register in a coffee shop in San Francisco.  The handwritten note on the jar read, "If you fear change, leave it in here." Saffo ended with a photo he took of a jar by the cash register in a coffee shop in San Francisco.  The handwritten note on the jar read, "If you fear change, leave it in here."
  
-</file>+--Stewart Brand 
 + 
 +==== Affective Forecasting ==== 
 + 
 +Affective forecasting (also known as hedonic forecasting or the hedonic forecasting mechanism) is the prediction of one's affect (emotional state) in the future. As a process that influences preferences, decisions, and behavior, affective forecasting is studied by both psychologists and economists, with broad applications. 
 + 
 +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_forecasting 
 + 
 +----
  
 +see also [[:future fabulators/non predictive strategy]], [[:future fabulators/scenario building]]
  • forecasting.txt
  • Last modified: 2019-03-13 11:18
  • by maja