“The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present.”“

• Rule 1: Define a Cone of Uncertainty
• Rule 2: Look for the S Curve
• Rule 3: Embrace the Things That Don’t Fit
• Rule 4: Hold Strong Opinions Weakly
• Rule 5: Look Back Twice as Far as You Look Forward
• Rule 6: Know When Not to Make a Forecast

Paul Saffo in http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/hbsp/hbr/articles/article.jsp?articleID=R0707K&ml_action=get-article&print=true&ml_issueid=BR0707