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| future_fabulators:antipodean_musings [2014-03-10 02:21] – alkan | future_fabulators:antipodean_musings [2014-03-10 02:29] – [Scenario thinking] alkan |
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| The question how to construct rich [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#scenarios|scenarios]] lead us deeper into the territory of axes, branches, layers, fans and cones (no specialist field is complete without a working vocabulary) - all of which can represent different relationships between (elements) of possible, probable and/or preferred futures. It is interesting that several researchers warn that different methods will produce different types of future scenarios. This is something that we intuitively grasped after facilitating several workshops. The research confirmed that we have to be very careful about not just the methods we use, but also of our influence as facilitators on the process and outcome of the scenarios. A lot of the [[integral futures]] research talks about the inclusion of the practitioner as part of scenario creation. Our personal development, history, worldviews, presence and other factors has an impact on the content and the process of the workshop. This lead us to search for different ways to ask questions during the constructions of scenario skeletons, that might lead to different answers and therefore different stories, than if we intuitively ask questions that interest us. | The question how to construct rich [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#scenarios|scenarios]] led us deeper into the territory of axes, branches, layers, fans and cones (no specialist field is complete without a working vocabulary) - all of which can represent different relationships between aspects of possible, probable or preferred futures. Interestingly, several researchers warn that different methods will produce different types of future scenarios. This is something that we intuitively grasped after facilitating several workshops. The research confirmed that we have to be very careful not only of the methods we use, but also of our influence as facilitators on the process and outcome of the scenarios. A lot of the [[integral futures]] research talks about the inclusion of the practitioner as part of scenario creation. Our personal development, history, worldview, and other factors all have an impact on the content and process of the workshop. This made us search for different ways to ask questions during the construction of scenario skeletons that could lead to different answers and therefore different stories, rather than if we just asked the questions that interested us alone. |
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| What we have previously called 'retrocasting' or 'scenario testing' (probing the paths from "here" to various projected futures) goes by several names in the futures field, the most widespread being "[[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#retrocasting|backcasting]]" and/or "incasting". The difference between backcasting and retrocasting (if we understood this correctly) is that backcasting envisions a preferred future and asks what would have to be done in the present to get to that future, while incasting looks at finding signals of emergence different possible or probable futures (preferred and otherwise). | What we have previously called 'retrocasting' or 'scenario testing' (probing the paths from 'here' to various projected futures) goes by several names in the futures field, the most widespread being '[[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/scenario_methods#retrocasting|backcasting]]' or 'incasting'. The difference between backcasting and retrocasting (if we understood this correctly) is that backcasting envisions a preferred future and asks what would have to be done in the present to get to that future, while incasting looks at finding signals of emergence different possible or probable futures (preferred and otherwise). |
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| Exploring each of these methods and techniques has of course revealed many promising leads, some of which have been left unexplored for now. However, our initial collection of [[scenario methods]] is now more extensive and has already sparked ideas about how we could use or adapt some of them in our work. | Exploring each of these methods and techniques has of course revealed many promising leads, some of which have been left unexplored for now. However, our initial collection of [[scenario methods]] is now more extensive and has already sparked ideas about how we could use or adapt some of them in our work. |
nik