Differences
This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
Both sides previous revision Previous revision Next revision | Previous revision Next revisionBoth sides next revision | ||
future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-10 07:22] – nik | future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-12 23:44] – nik | ||
---|---|---|---|
Line 4: | Line 4: | ||
{{future_fabulators: | {{future_fabulators: | ||
+ | |||
+ | “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous” Dator’s 2nd Law of the Future (Dator 1995) | ||
+ | |||
==== external / rational ==== | ==== external / rational ==== | ||
* [[: | * [[: | ||
* can we use predictions to help separate/ | * can we use predictions to help separate/ | ||
- | * what is the question? can it be answered | + | * what is the question? can it be answered |
==== internal / irrational ==== | ==== internal / irrational ==== | ||
* divination / invocation | * divination / invocation | ||
- | ==== present / future | + | ==== physical narratives |
- | 20140206 Having done several | + | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; |
+ | * performing text on screen | ||
+ | * Varytale | ||
+ | * "Text becomes | ||
+ | * Very based around computer games. | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * Note: Prehearsals | ||
- | Here are a few possible research questions and directions (some quite broad, others very specific), collected from various debriefs | ||
- | **How to improve the [[: | + | ====formalised decision making==== |
- | General questions: | + | A lot of the scenario planning process has to do with [[Formalised Decision Making]] |
- | * 'but why' (experiential futurism)? | + | |
- | * how do we give the participants a sense of agency when discussing ' | + | |
- | * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting | + | |
- | * what forms can ' | + | |
- | * what is the shortest and longest time in which we can do scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results | + | |
- | * how can we help increase commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future? how much follow-up | + | |
- | * what can we borrow from other fields, like improv, role playing games, LARP, disaster drills, meditation… to improve prehearsals? | + | |
- | * how can we allow participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, but discourage being distracted by email, social media…? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like the Reactable for example) | + | |
- | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | + | |
- | Preparation beforehand | + | ==== present / future ==== |
- | * what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand? | + | |
- | * what is the ideal room size (per person) for a scenario workshop? | + | |
- | Key question | + | 20140206 Having done several [[scenarios|scenario workshops]], |
- | * how to better structure designing | + | |
- | * how can we encourage | + | |
- | * why is it so difficult | + | |
- | Mapping the present situation | + | Here are a few possible research questions and directions (some quite broad, others very specific), collected from various debriefs |
- | * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question? | + | |
- | * when is this step necessary? | + | |
- | * does it help talking about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist? | + | |
- | Key factors | + | **How to improve |
- | | + | |
- | * are we talking only about success criteria here? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Macro trends | + | |
- | * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | + | |
- | * what is the relevance of facts and data related to macro trends in experiential futurism? | + | |
- | * how can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends that will result in something more meaningful than a list of assumptions? | + | |
- | * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? | + | |
- | * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | + | |
- | * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the ' | + | |
- | * are there other ways to group trends except the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | + | |
- | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | Ranking critical uncertainties | + | |
- | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | Scenarios | + | |
- | * when to use one, two, three or more axes? | + | |
- | * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | From scenarios to story-worlds | + | |
- | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | + | |
- | * what elements do we need in a scenario database? | + | |
- | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Scenario testing (signals, how to get from here to there) | + | |
- | * how is this done by others? | + | |
- | * what are important things to focus on? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Visualising | + | |
- | * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Prototyping | + | |
- | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Prehearsals | + | |
- | * how to design them? | + | |
- | * how to host them? | + | |
- | * how to evaluate them? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Follow-up | + | |
- | | + | |
- | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | ==== scenario database ==== | + | |
- | + | ||
- | 20140205 While editing | + | |
- | + | ||
- | * what is the question? | + | |
- | | + | |
- | | + | |
- | * how far in the future does the scenario take place? | + | |
- | * scenario description | + | |
- | * genaral image(s) | + | |
- | * more specific/ | + | |
- | * links to the pages of related scenarios (and a ' | + | |
- | + | ||
- | should we try to contextualise the scenarios directly in the database? | + | |
- | * a section with links to projects/ | + | |
- | * section on how the scenario is turned into a prehearsal (could be in the form of a 'day in the life of..."? | + | |
- | * reflections on the prehearsal | + | |
- | * etc. | + | |
- | + | ||
- | or should we keep the database only as a 'short story collection'? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | ==== software & protocols ==== | + | |
- | * open formats > closed formats | + | |
- | * utf-8 > ascii/ | + | |
- | * documents | + | |
- | * utf-8 text or ODF (libreoffice, | + | |
- | * pdf for reference & archiving | + | |
- | * [[: | + | |
- | * semi syncronous; email, twitter, irc (freenode -> #ff ?) | + | |
- | * asyncronous; | + | |
- | * algorithmic sketching; racket, common lisp, python, git | + | |
- | * online | + | |
- | * **libarynth** for text, tangents and collation -> http:// | + | |
- | * **flickr** for image matter -> https:// | + | |
- | * **vimeo** for video matter -> http:// | + | |
- | * **zotero** for library and references -> https:// | + | |
- | * potentially | + | |
- | * tumblr, cargo, diasp, other? | + | |
- | * prediction book | + | |
- | * wikipedia | + | |
- | + | ||
- | ==== reading/notes ==== | + | |
- | * various [[:scifi]] threads re. possible future cultures, shifting relation between humans & their environment, | + | |
- | * bloom, ventus, mars trilogy, incrementalists, | + | |
- | * "A History of the Future in 100 Objects " >> [[https:// | + | |
- | * 'the culture' | + | |
- | * https:// | + | |
- | * [[: | + | |
- | * https:// | + | |
- | * https:// | + | |
- | * The Hermetic Library reading room >> http:// | + | |
- | * Erwin Wagenhofer' | + | |
- | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http:// | + | |
- | * performing text on screen | + | |
- | * Varytale | + | |
- | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | + | |
- | * Very based around computer games. | + | |
- | * " | + | |
- | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | + | |
+ | General questions: | ||
+ | * 'but why...' | ||
+ | * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing and developing ' | ||
+ | * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | ||
+ | * what other forms can ' | ||
+ | * what is the shortest and/or longest time in which we can complete meaningful scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results while keeping the process enjoyable for the participants? | ||
+ | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | ||
+ | * what can we borrow from other fields, such as; improv, |