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future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-10 07:34] – nik | future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-12 01:39] – maja | ||
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* [[: | * [[: | ||
* can we use predictions to help separate/ | * can we use predictions to help separate/ | ||
- | * what is the question? can it be answered | + | * what is the question? can it be answered |
==== internal / irrational ==== | ==== internal / irrational ==== | ||
* divination / invocation | * divination / invocation | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== physical narratives ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http:// | ||
+ | * performing text on screen | ||
+ | * Varytale | ||
+ | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | ||
+ | * Very based around computer games. | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====formalised decision making==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | A lot of the scenario planning process has to do with [[Formalised Decision Making]] and how this is done in groups. | ||
+ | |||
==== present / future ==== | ==== present / future ==== | ||
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General questions: | General questions: | ||
* 'but why...' | * 'but why...' | ||
- | * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing ' | + | * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing |
* how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | ||
* what other forms can ' | * what other forms can ' | ||
- | | + | |
+ | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | ||
+ | * what can we borrow from other fields, such as; improv, role playing games, LARP, disaster drills, meditation… to improve prehearsals? | ||
* how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? | * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? | ||
- | | + | * how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like Reactable for example) |
- | | + | |
- | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | + | |
Line 38: | Line 54: | ||
Key question | Key question | ||
+ | * what are good questions to ask? | ||
+ | * [[http:// | ||
* how to better structure/ | * how to better structure/ | ||
+ | * [[https:// | ||
* how can we encourage an ' | * how can we encourage an ' | ||
* why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | * why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | ||
+ | |||
+ | "In nearly all cases it should be possible to formulate the purpose of the scenarios work as a question. If this proves difficult, this is often an indication that the work will not be taken up when completed, even if it is of a good quality." | ||
Mapping the present situation | Mapping the present situation | ||
* what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question? | * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question? | ||
+ | * [[KPUU Framework]] | ||
* when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/ | * when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/ | ||
* does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist? | * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist? | ||
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Key factors | Key factors | ||
* how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors | * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors | ||
+ | * " | ||
* are we talking only about success criteria here? | * are we talking only about success criteria here? | ||
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* how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs) | * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs) | ||
* what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | ||
+ | * [[horizon scanning]] | ||
* should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the ' | * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the ' | ||
* are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | ||
* is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | ||
- | + | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | |
+ | * what does a ' | ||
Ranking critical uncertainties | Ranking critical uncertainties | ||
* what are different ways in which this is done by others? | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | ||
- | |||
Scenarios | Scenarios | ||
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* wikipedia | * wikipedia | ||
- | ==== reading/ | ||
- | * various [[:scifi]] threads re. possible future cultures, shifting relation between humans & their environment, | ||
- | * bloom, ventus, mars trilogy, incrementalists, | ||
- | * "A History of the Future in 100 Objects " >> [[https:// | ||
- | * 'the culture' | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * [[: | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * The Hermetic Library reading room >> http:// | ||
- | * Erwin Wagenhofer' | ||
- | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http:// | ||
- | * performing text on screen | ||
- | * Varytale | ||
- | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | ||
- | * Very based around computer games. | ||
- | * " | ||
- | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | ||