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future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-11 06:44] – maja | future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-13 03:59] – maja | ||
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{{future_fabulators: | {{future_fabulators: | ||
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+ | “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous” Dator’s 2nd Law of the Future (Dator 1995) | ||
==== external / rational ==== | ==== external / rational ==== | ||
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==== internal / irrational ==== | ==== internal / irrational ==== | ||
* divination / invocation | * divination / invocation | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== physical narratives ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http:// | ||
+ | * performing text on screen | ||
+ | * Varytale | ||
+ | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | ||
+ | * Very based around computer games. | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | ||
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+ | |||
+ | ====formalised decision making==== | ||
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+ | A lot of the scenario planning process has to do with [[Formalised Decision Making]] and how this is done in groups. | ||
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==== present / future ==== | ==== present / future ==== | ||
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* how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? | * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? | ||
* how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like Reactable for example) | * how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like Reactable for example) | ||
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- | Preparation beforehand | ||
- | * what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand? | ||
- | * what are the ideal settings (e.g. room size per person) for a scenario workshop? | ||
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- | Key question | ||
- | * what are good questions to ask? | ||
- | * [[http:// | ||
- | * how to better structure/ | ||
- | * [[https:// | ||
- | * how can we encourage an ' | ||
- | * why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | ||
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- | Mapping the present situation | ||
- | * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question? | ||
- | * [[KPUU Framework]] | ||
- | * when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/ | ||
- | * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist? | ||
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- | Key factors | ||
- | * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors | ||
- | * " | ||
- | * are we talking only about success criteria here? | ||
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- | Macro trends | ||
- | * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | ||
- | * how can we make assumptions and guesswork more apparent (i.e. indicating how drivers can be based on an assumption, guess or ' | ||
- | * what is the relevance of facts and data related to macro trends in experiential futurism? | ||
- | * how can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends which results in something more meaningful than a list of assumptions? | ||
- | * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs) | ||
- | * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | ||
- | * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the ' | ||
- | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | ||
- | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | ||
- | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | ||
- | * what does a ' | ||
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- | Ranking critical uncertainties | ||
- | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | ||
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- | Scenarios | ||
- | * when to use one, two, three or more axes? | ||
- | * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised? | ||
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- | From scenarios to story-worlds | ||
- | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | ||
- | * what elements do we need in a scenario database? | ||
- | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | ||
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- | Scenario testing (signals, how to get from here to there) | ||
- | * how is this done by others? | ||
- | * what are important things to focus on? | ||
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- | Visualising | ||
- | * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | ||
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- | Prototyping | ||
- | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | ||
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- | Prehearsals | ||
- | * how to design them? | ||
- | * how to host them? | ||
- | * how to evaluate them? | ||
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- | Follow-up | ||
- | * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | ||
- | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | ||
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==== scenario database ==== | ==== scenario database ==== | ||
- | 20140205 While editing [[scenarios]] | + | 20140205 While editing [[scenarios]] it became apparent how tricky it is to keep a consistency in information and layout of the scenarios. The scenario database we're planning to make should make this easier. Components that seem to be needed in all scenarios: |
* what is the question? | * what is the question? | ||
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* wikipedia | * wikipedia | ||
- | ==== reading/ | ||
- | * various [[:scifi]] threads re. possible future cultures, shifting relation between humans & their environment, | ||
- | * bloom, ventus, mars trilogy, incrementalists, | ||
- | * "A History of the Future in 100 Objects " >> [[https:// | ||
- | * 'the culture' | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * [[: | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * https:// | ||
- | * The Hermetic Library reading room >> http:// | ||
- | * Erwin Wagenhofer' | ||
- | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http:// | ||
- | * performing text on screen | ||
- | * Varytale | ||
- | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | ||
- | * Very based around computer games. | ||
- | * " | ||
- | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | ||
- | * [[http:// | ||
- | * Rekto:Verso over de toekomst: http:// | ||
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- | ==== via Lies Declerck ==== | ||
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- | (things to follow up) | ||
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- | Hanna Arendt and ' | ||
- | Voor Arendt is ' | ||
- | http:// | ||
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- | Sébastien Hendrickx en 'alsof strategie: | ||
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- | de ' | ||
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- | (...) | ||
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- | Toch bezit de kunst geen monopolie op de kritische zin en de kracht van de verbeelding. In tal van maatschappelijke domeinen wordt vandaag grondig nagedacht over alternatieven, | ||
- | Maar anders dan deze initiatieven hoeven de ' | ||
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- | (...) | ||
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- | Enerzijds slaan zij met een grote leergierigheid bruggen tussen kunst en leven: de verplaatsingen in andere maatschappelijke praktijken maken de inhoudelijke vragen binnen hun werk heel concreet en tastbaar en zorgen voor een uitbreiding van het veld van vormelijke mogelijkheden. Anderzijds blijven zij de kunst behoedzaam van het leven onderscheiden: | ||
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- | http:// | ||