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| future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-02 08:57] – nik | future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-04 13:33] – [drivers] maja | ||
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| ==== Food Horizons ==== | ==== Food Horizons ==== | ||
| - | a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http:// | + | a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http:// |
| eg. | eg. | ||
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| * > unknown health effects | * > unknown health effects | ||
| - | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects. | + | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers |
| * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http:// | * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http:// | ||
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| ===Environmental=== | ===Environmental=== | ||
| - | | + | |
| * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines | * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines | ||
| * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. | * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. | ||
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| * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
| - | | + | |
| * Climate change | * Climate change | ||
| - | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, | + | * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, |
| - | * > localized | + | * > localized food scarcity; |
| - | * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economical | + | * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic |
| * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | ||
| + | * See detailed results from IPCC report below. | ||
| * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
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| * > geopolitical instability. | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
| - | ===Economical=== | + | |
| + | reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} | ||
| + | |||
| + | IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==Change in Plant Crops Production== | ||
| + | |||
| + | * India: global loss in cereal production. | ||
| + | * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans. | ||
| + | * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy | ||
| + | * Europe: | ||
| + | * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates. | ||
| + | * Moderate change in Continental North. | ||
| + | * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates. | ||
| + | * Australia: global decrease. | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==Change in Livestock Production== | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy | ||
| + | * Europe: | ||
| + | * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields. | ||
| + | * Italy & Netherlands: | ||
| + | * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus | ||
| + | * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia. | ||
| + | * South America: | ||
| + | * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. | ||
| + | * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. | ||
| + | * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle. | ||
| + | * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields. | ||
| + | |||
| + | {{ : | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===Economic=== | ||
| * Increased globalization of economy | * Increased globalization of economy | ||
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| * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
| * > geopolitical instability. | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
| - | * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted | + | * Hyper-[[http:// |
| * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | ||
| * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
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| * Increased financiarisation of economy | * Increased financiarisation of economy | ||
| - | * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | + | |
| * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | ||
| * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
| * > geopolitical instability. | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
| - | * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | + | |
| * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
| * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
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| ===Demographic=== | ===Demographic=== | ||
| - | * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | + | * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted |
| * Increase of urban population | * Increase of urban population | ||
| - | * Massive amount of energy | + | * Massive amount of energy |
| * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
| * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
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| + | ====drivers==== | ||
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| + | {{> | ||
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| + | {{> | ||
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| + | {{> | ||
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| + | |||
| + | ====causal layered analysis==== | ||
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| + | {{> | ||
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| + | {{> | ||
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| + | {{> | ||
maja