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future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-02 09:34] – michkafuture_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-04 13:33] – [drivers] maja
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 ==== Food Horizons ==== ==== Food Horizons ====
  
-a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/ +a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/ as developed in [[food futures]]
  
 eg. eg.
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 ===Environmental=== ===Environmental===
  
-   * increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere +   * Increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere 
      * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines      * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines
      * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.      * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.
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        * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.        * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.
      * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.      * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.
 +       * See detailed results from IPCC report below.
  
    * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food     * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
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      * > geopolitical instability.      * > geopolitical instability.
  
 +
 +reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FGDall.pdf
  
 {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}}
  
 IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a
 +
 +==Change in Plant Crops Production==
 +
 +   * India: global loss in cereal production.
 +   * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans.
 +   * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy
 +   * Europe: 
 +     * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates.
 +     * Moderate change in Continental North.
 +     * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates.
 +   * Australia: global decrease.
 +
 +==Change in Livestock Production==
 +
 +   * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy
 +   * Europe:
 +     * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields.
 +     * Italy & Netherlands: bad for mozzarella & gouda
 +     * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus
 +   * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia.
 +   * South America:
 +     * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase.
 +     * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle.
 +     * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle.
 +   * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields.
 +
 +{{ :future_fabulators:giec_figure_ge_ne_rale_-_copie.jpg?800 |}}
  
 ===Economic=== ===Economic===
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    * Increased financiarisation of economy    * Increased financiarisation of economy
-     * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food+     * [[http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodprices.html|Adverse effects of speculation on food prices]] > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
        * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;         * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; 
        * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;         * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; 
        * > geopolitical instability.        * > geopolitical instability.
  
-   * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food +   * [[http://www.inegalites.fr/spip.php?page=analyse&id_article=1911&id_groupe=20&id_rubrique=28&id_mot=15|Increasing inequities in personal wealth]] > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
      * > starvation for specific locations & poor people      * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
      * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population      * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
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 +====drivers====
 +
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585393644/}} \\
 +
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585072463/}} \\
 +
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585034475/}} \\
 +
 +
 +====causal layered analysis====
 +
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604606344/}} \\
 +
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604224645/}} \\
 +
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604554614/}} \\
  
  
  • future_fabulators/food_horizons.txt
  • Last modified: 2014-10-25 16:02
  • by maja