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future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-02 09:54] – nik | future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-05-06 09:41] – nik | ||
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==== Food Horizons ==== | ==== Food Horizons ==== | ||
- | a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios | + | On this page we collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes, related to food, health and wellness. This is a preliminary step in the design |
- | eg. | + | See the whole design process on the [[food futures]] page. |
- | https:// | + | |
- | http:// | + | |
+ | ==== Current situation ==== | ||
- | ====Trends per Type==== | + | (looking back from 50-100 years to today, focusing on problems and possibilities) |
- | Horizon: | + | * hygiene, pasteurisation and the (anti)bacterial movement (better understanding of pathogens, pesticides, antibiotics and the rising dangers of antibiotic resistance) |
+ | * industrialisation of food production, focus on efficiency and feeding more people; | ||
+ | * increased use of sugar, fat and meat (1995 the first deep-fried mars bar in Scotland) | ||
+ | * proliferation of cold chain transport - larger volume and longer distances (allowing for delocalisation and specialisation of production), | ||
+ | * consumption patterns are changing: USA influence, food from around the world, seasonal flattening; food consumption moves from social to functional | ||
+ | * disposal: city scale, burned rather than composted | ||
+ | * wide spread of (bio-accumulative) toxins (packaging, hormones, slow-acting poisons, also in organic farming) | ||
+ | * the battle between bacteria and chemicals (and people who prefer one or the other) | ||
+ | * complex food distribution and production (present: focus on reduction of complexity and shortening of supply-chains) | ||
+ | * growing awareness of health risks | ||
+ | * present: refocusing on the local, respecialisation, | ||
+ | * vicious circle of more people - more food: focus on cheap and voluminous rather | ||
+ | * dangerous footprint of meat production (concentration of animal manure) and other industrial byproducts | ||
+ | * internet is changing distribution and consumption patterns, as well as non-industrial food production; information spreads faster and supply-chains are becoming more convoluted and personalised | ||
+ | * proliferation of foodies movements focused on healthy, tasty, virtuoso food preparation and consumption; | ||
+ | * open source food movements | ||
+ | * diet cults (and disconnection from food production and waste) | ||
- | ">" | ||
- | [in square brackets are the references] **NO`tE:** you can also add footnotes like so((well researched and referenced)) | ||
- | ===Social=== | + | ====drivers==== |
+ | |||
+ | Social | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Health | ||
+ | * Diet | ||
+ | * Aging | ||
+ | * Urbanisation | ||
+ | * Food Culture | ||
+ | |||
+ | Technological | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Agricultural Technology | ||
+ | * GMO / Synthetic biology | ||
+ | * Internet of Things | ||
+ | * Customisation | ||
+ | * Antibiotic availability | ||
+ | * Food science | ||
+ | |||
+ | Economic | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Energy | ||
+ | * Financing | ||
+ | * Equality | ||
+ | * Dominant crops | ||
+ | * Scale | ||
+ | * Patenting | ||
+ | |||
+ | Environment | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Pollution | ||
+ | * Unpredictability | ||
+ | * Degradation | ||
+ | * Availability of raw materials (water, seeds, soil...) | ||
+ | |||
+ | Political | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Conservatism | ||
+ | * Nationalism | ||
+ | * Unconditional Basic Income | ||
+ | * Food Security | ||
+ | * Transnational Agreements | ||
+ | * Laws and Regulations | ||
+ | |||
+ | Thematically clustered drivers: | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====causal layered analysis==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Analysis of thematically clustered drivers looking at their social causes, underlying worldviews and cultural myths: | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{> | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ====Drivers in detail ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Horizon: less than 50 years. | ||
===Technological=== | ===Technological=== | ||
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===Environmental=== | ===Environmental=== | ||
- | | + | |
* > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines | * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines | ||
* > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. | * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. | ||
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* > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients. | * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients. | ||
* Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide. | ||
+ | * See detailed results from IPCC report below. | ||
* Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | ||
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IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a | IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Change in Plant Crops Production== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * India: global loss in cereal production. | ||
+ | * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans. | ||
+ | * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy | ||
+ | * Europe: | ||
+ | * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates. | ||
+ | * Moderate change in Continental North. | ||
+ | * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates. | ||
+ | * Australia: global decrease. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Change in Livestock Production== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy | ||
+ | * Europe: | ||
+ | * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields. | ||
+ | * Italy & Netherlands: | ||
+ | * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus | ||
+ | * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia. | ||
+ | * South America: | ||
+ | * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. | ||
+ | * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. | ||
+ | * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle. | ||
+ | * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
===Economic=== | ===Economic=== | ||
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* Increased financiarisation of economy | * Increased financiarisation of economy | ||
- | * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | + | |
* > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; | ||
* > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; | ||
* > geopolitical instability. | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
- | * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food | + | |
* > starvation for specific locations & poor people | * > starvation for specific locations & poor people | ||
* > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
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* > [[http:// | * > [[http:// | ||
- | ===Demographic=== | + | |
+ | ===Social & Cultural | ||
* Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. | ||
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* > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population | ||
* > geopolitical instability. | * > geopolitical instability. | ||
- | |||
- | ===Cultural=== | ||
* Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) | * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) | ||
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+ | ====misc/ | ||
- | ====misc/sort==== | + | " |
* e.g. http:// | * e.g. http:// | ||
* e.g. https:// | * e.g. https:// | ||
+ | * https:// | ||
+ | * http:// | ||
* infographics from foodnetwork http:// | * infographics from foodnetwork http:// | ||
* historical changes in ingredients http:// | * historical changes in ingredients http:// |