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future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 16:01] – michkafuture_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-05-06 09:41] – nik
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 ==== Food Horizons ==== ==== Food Horizons ====
  
-a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/ +On this page we collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes, related to food, health and wellness. This is a preliminary step in the design of [[food scenarios]], that we then translated into a [[latelab_menu|tasting menu]] for [[http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/|Latelab Open Sauces]] at the Edinburgh Science Festival. 
  
-eg. +See the whole design process on the [[food futures]] page.
-https://delicious.com/zzkt/food \\ +
-http://agalmic.org/tagged/food+
  
-====misc/sort====+==== Current situation ====
  
-  * e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn +(looking back from 50-100 years to today, focusing on problems and possibilities)
-  * e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables +
-  * infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/ +
-  * historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html +
-  * "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honeywell_316#Kitchen_Computer +
-  * "Bul­li­pedia is a pro­fes­sional tool based on the cod­i­fi­ca­tion of a cre­ative discipline." from elBulli Foundation. http://hackingbullipedia.org/bullipedia3-2 +
-  * "A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity" by René Redzepi. http://nyjournalofbooks.com/review/work-progress-notes-food-cooking-and-creativity +
-  * "TASTED is a project that investigates the way we taste food and its flavor." http://www.simona-derosa.com/works/#/tasted/ +
-  * network analysis "Flavor network and the principles of food pairing". http://www.nature.com/srep/2011/111215/srep00196/full/srep00196.html +
-  * general principles of cooking with coconut milk. http://ask.metafilter.com/257507/What-are-the-general-principles-for-cooking-with-coconut-milk +
-  * An app for flavour profiling. https://www.gastrograph.com/+
  
-====Trends per Type====+  * hygiene, pasteurisation and the (anti)bacterial movement (better understanding of pathogens, pesticides, antibiotics and the rising dangers of antibiotic resistance) 
 +  * industrialisation of food production, focus on efficiency and feeding more people; less focus on taste, more on nutrition 
 +  * increased use of sugar, fat and meat (1995 the first deep-fried mars bar in Scotland) 
 +  * proliferation of cold chain transport - larger volume and longer distances (allowing for delocalisation and specialisation of production), availability of a wide range of products 
 +  * consumption patterns are changing: USA influence, food from around the world, seasonal flattening; food consumption moves from social to functional 
 +  * disposal: city scale, burned rather than composted 
 +  * wide spread of (bio-accumulative) toxins (packaging, hormones, slow-acting poisons, also in organic farming) 
 +  * the battle between bacteria and chemicals (and people who prefer one or the other) 
 +  * complex food distribution and production (present: focus on reduction of complexity and shortening of supply-chains) 
 +  * growing awareness of health risks 
 +  * present: refocusing on the local, respecialisation, relocalisation, bringing back forgotten varieties and species, focus on (hyper)seasonal products 
 +  * vicious circle of more people - more food: focus on cheap and voluminous rather than nutritious; lowering of household's food budgets - health risks due to consumption of junk food 
 +  * dangerous footprint of meat production (concentration of animal manure) and other industrial byproducts 
 +  * internet is changing distribution and consumption patterns, as well as non-industrial food production; information spreads faster and supply-chains are becoming more convoluted and personalised 
 +  * proliferation of foodies movements focused on healthy, tasty, virtuoso food preparation and consumption;  
 +  * open source food movements 
 +  * diet cults (and disconnection from food production and waste)
  
-Horizon: less than 50 years. 
  
-">" means "inducing" 
  
-[in square brackets are the references]+====drivers==== 
 + 
 +Social 
 + 
 +  * Health 
 +  * Diet 
 +  * Aging 
 +  * Urbanisation 
 +  * Food Culture 
 + 
 +Technological 
 + 
 +  * Agricultural Technology 
 +  * GMO / Synthetic biology 
 +  * Internet of Things 
 +  * Customisation 
 +  * Antibiotic availability 
 +  * Food science 
 + 
 +Economic 
 + 
 +  * Energy 
 +  * Financing 
 +  * Equality 
 +  * Dominant crops 
 +  * Scale 
 +  * Patenting 
 + 
 +Environment 
 + 
 +  * Pollution 
 +  * Unpredictability 
 +  * Degradation 
 +  * Availability of raw materials (water, seeds, soil...) 
 + 
 +Political 
 + 
 +  * Conservatism 
 +  * Nationalism 
 +  * Unconditional Basic Income 
 +  * Food Security 
 +  * Transnational Agreements 
 +  * Laws and Regulations 
 + 
 +Thematically clustered drivers: 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585393644/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585072463/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585034475/}} \\ 
 + 
 + 
 + 
 +====causal layered analysis==== 
 + 
 +Analysis of thematically clustered drivers looking at their social causes, underlying worldviews and cultural myths: 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604606344/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604224645/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604554614/}} \\ 
 + 
 + 
 + 
 +====Drivers in detail ==== 
 + 
 +Horizon: less than 50 years.
  
-===Social=== 
  
 ===Technological=== ===Technological===
Line 35: Line 104:
    * Development of "resource-efficient" large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation...) [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?|(in french), article on Reporterre on French government's strategy towards "industrial agro-ecology"]]    * Development of "resource-efficient" large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation...) [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?|(in french), article on Reporterre on French government's strategy towards "industrial agro-ecology"]]
      * > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4054|(in French), article on Reporterre on adverse environmental effects of large-scale methanisation]]      * > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4054|(in French), article on Reporterre on adverse environmental effects of large-scale methanisation]]
-   * development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share [[http://rue89.nouvelobs.com/2014/03/29/mobilisation-generale-contre-grand-mechant-marche-transatlantique-251038|(in French), article on how the US-EU free-trade zone will bring GMO food to Europe]]+ 
 +   * Development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share [[http://rue89.nouvelobs.com/2014/03/29/mobilisation-generale-contre-grand-mechant-marche-transatlantique-251038|(in French), article on how the US-EU free-trade zone will bring GMO food to Europe]]
      * > unknown health effects      * > unknown health effects
-   * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects. + 
-   * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[the lab-grown hamburger|http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23576143]]) +   * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers ([[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12267561|promoted by Right-to-Food special rapporteur Olivier de Schutter]]) > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects and mitigating the risk of such effects. 
 + 
 +   * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23576143|the lab-grown hamburger]]) 
      * > only for very rich people, with [[http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/08/is-lab-grown-meat-good-for-us/278778/|unknown impact on health]].      * > only for very rich people, with [[http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/08/is-lab-grown-meat-good-for-us/278778/|unknown impact on health]].
  
 ===Environmental=== ===Environmental===
  
-   * Massive pollution of water, soil and atmosphere > increased systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines; potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.+   * Increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere  
 +     * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines 
 +     * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity. 
    * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.    * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
-   * Increase of desertification > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.+ 
 +   * Changes in desertification and rainfall patterns > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. 
    * Climate change    * Climate change
-     * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, f. i. Floods & Droughts > localized high food scarcity; when combined with hyper-specialization  of food crops per location (see Economical trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.+     * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, e.g. Floods & Droughts  
 +       * > localized food scarcity;  
 +       * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.
      * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.      * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.
-   * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of available food crops; reduced resilience to change in seasinal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. +       * See detailed results from IPCC report below. 
-   * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on "traveling food" prices > when combined with increased inequities in personal wealth (see Economical Ttrends), reduce of food ingredients availability for most of the population (see Economical trends) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.+ 
 +   * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food  
 +     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people 
 +     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population 
 +     * > geopolitical instability. 
 + 
 +   * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on "traveling food" prices > when combined with increased inequities in personal wealth (see Economical Ttrends), reduce of food ingredients availability for most of the population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food  
 +     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people 
 +     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population 
 +     * > geopolitical instability. 
 + 
 + 
 +reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FGDall.pdf 
 + 
 +{{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} 
 + 
 +IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a 
 + 
 +==Change in Plant Crops Production== 
 + 
 +   * India: global loss in cereal production. 
 +   * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans. 
 +   * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy 
 +   * Europe:  
 +     * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates. 
 +     * Moderate change in Continental North. 
 +     * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates. 
 +   * Australia: global decrease. 
 + 
 +==Change in Livestock Production== 
 + 
 +   * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy 
 +   * Europe: 
 +     * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields. 
 +     * Italy & Netherlands: bad for mozzarella & gouda 
 +     * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus 
 +   * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia. 
 +   * South America: 
 +     * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. 
 +     * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. 
 +     * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle. 
 +   * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields. 
 + 
 +{{ :future_fabulators:giec_figure_ge_ne_rale_-_copie.jpg?800 |}}
  
-===Economical===+===Economic===
  
    * Increased globalization of economy    * Increased globalization of economy
-     * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. +     * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted  
-     * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;  
 +       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;  
 +       * > geopolitical instability. 
 +     * Hyper-[[http://www.postcarbon.org/article/305585-specialization-and-globalization-genies-at-our|specialisation]] of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted  
 +       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;  
 +       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;  
 +       * > geopolitical instability. 
    * Increased financiarisation of economy    * Increased financiarisation of economy
-     * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. +     * [[http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodprices.html|Adverse effects of speculation on food prices]] > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
-   * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. +       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;  
-   * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale > better global health at local population scale. +       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;  
-   * Global game changer: if a major demographic population, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income... > may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics > may induced better global health & wellness results.+       * > geopolitical instability. 
 + 
 +   * [[http://www.inegalites.fr/spip.php?page=analyse&id_article=1911&id_groupe=20&id_rubrique=28&id_mot=15|Increasing inequities in personal wealth]] > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food  
 +     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people 
 +     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population 
 +     * > geopolitical instability. 
 +    
 +   * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4806|(in French) integral cooperatives]], local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives  
 +     * > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale  
 +       * > better global health at local population scale. 
 +    
 +   * Global game changer: if a major demographic group, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income. It is about to be [[http://bien.ch/fr/node/417|voted by the population in Switzerland]] and has been proposed as a [[http://basicincome2013.eu/|popular initiative in Europe]]  
 +     * > [[http://www.projet-decroissance.net/?p=1640|depending on how it would be defined]], it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results. 
 + 
 + 
 +===Social & Cultural ===
  
-===Demographic===+   * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  
-   * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. 
    * Increase of urban population    * Increase of urban population
-     * Massive amount of energy needed to bring food to urban citizens  +     * Massive amount of energy used to bring food to urban citizens  
-       * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. +       * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food  
-       * > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to transport industry > adverse health effects. +         * > starvation for specific locations & poor people 
-     * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.+         * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population 
 +         * > geopolitical instability. 
 +       * > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to massive transport 
 +         * > adverse health effects. 
 +     * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food  
 +       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people 
 +       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population 
 +       * > geopolitical instability.
  
-===Cultural===+   * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...)  
 +     * > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture 
 +       * > pollution 
 +         * > adverse health effects 
 +     * > low food diversity 
 +       * > adverse health effects
  
-   * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ? +   * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?)  
-   * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) +     * > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ? 
-   * Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), at least localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health.+ 
 +   * Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health.
  
 ===Political=== ===Political===
-   * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties + 
 +   * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http://blogs.mediapart.fr/blog/malto-cortese/221113/agriculteurs-et-jardiniers-seront-ils-bientot-obliges-de-cultiver-dans-la-clandestinite|(in French), an article from Mediapart on seeds patenting]]
      * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture.      * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture.
-     * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. +     * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food  
-   * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements > (violent) incentive back to traditional cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ?+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people 
 +       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population 
 +       * > geopolitical instability.
  
 +   * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements [[http://www.lesinrocks.com/2012/05/29/actualite/le-fantasme-dune-arme-de-nonazis-11262225/|(in French), an article from les Inrocks analysing the situation of far-right parties in Europe]] > (violent) incentive back to traditional culture, and therefore cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ? 
 +
 +
 +
 +====misc/notes/sort====
 +
 +"People tend to find the taste of Soylent to be familiar: the predominant sensation is one of doughiness. The liquid is smooth but grainy in your mouth, and it has a yeasty, comforting blandness about it." [[http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2014/05/12/140512fa_fact_widdicombe?currentPage=all&mobify=0|Could Soylent Replace Food?]]
 +
 +  * e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn
 +  * e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables
 +  * https://delicious.com/zzkt/food 
 +  * http://agalmic.org/tagged/food
 +  * infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/
 +  * historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html
 +  * "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honeywell_316#Kitchen_Computer
 +  * "Bul­li­pedia is a pro­fes­sional tool based on the cod­i­fi­ca­tion of a cre­ative discipline." from elBulli Foundation. http://hackingbullipedia.org/bullipedia3-2
 +  * "A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity" by René Redzepi. http://nyjournalofbooks.com/review/work-progress-notes-food-cooking-and-creativity
 +  * "TASTED is a project that investigates the way we taste food and its flavor." http://www.simona-derosa.com/works/#/tasted/
 +  * network analysis "Flavor network and the principles of food pairing". http://www.nature.com/srep/2011/111215/srep00196/full/srep00196.html
 +  * general principles of cooking with coconut milk. http://ask.metafilter.com/257507/What-are-the-general-principles-for-cooking-with-coconut-milk
 +  * An app for flavour profiling. https://www.gastrograph.com/
  
-===Boiling it down=== 
  • future_fabulators/food_horizons.txt
  • Last modified: 2014-10-25 16:02
  • by maja