Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

Link to this comparison view

Both sides previous revision Previous revision
Next revision		 Previous revision
Last revisionBoth sides next revision
future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-02 08:58] – nikfuture_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-05-06 09:41] – nik
Line 1: Line 1:
 ==== Food Horizons ==== ==== Food Horizons ====
  
-a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/ +On this page we collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes, related to food, health and wellness. This is a preliminary step in the design of [[food scenarios]], that we then translated into a [[latelab_menu|tasting menu]] for [[http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/|Latelab Open Sauces]] at the Edinburgh Science Festival. 
  
-eg. +See the whole design process on the [[food futures]] page.
-https://delicious.com/zzkt/food \\ +
-http://agalmic.org/tagged/food+
  
 +==== Current situation ====
  
-====Trends per Type====+(looking back from 50-100 years to today, focusing on problems and possibilities)
  
-Horizon: less than 50 years.+  * hygiene, pasteurisation and the (anti)bacterial movement (better understanding of pathogens, pesticides, antibiotics and the rising dangers of antibiotic resistance) 
 +  * industrialisation of food production, focus on efficiency and feeding more people; less focus on taste, more on nutrition 
 +  * increased use of sugar, fat and meat (1995 the first deep-fried mars bar in Scotland) 
 +  * proliferation of cold chain transport - larger volume and longer distances (allowing for delocalisation and specialisation of production), availability of a wide range of products 
 +  * consumption patterns are changing: USA influence, food from around the world, seasonal flattening; food consumption moves from social to functional 
 +  * disposal: city scale, burned rather than composted 
 +  * wide spread of (bio-accumulative) toxins (packaging, hormones, slow-acting poisons, also in organic farming) 
 +  * the battle between bacteria and chemicals (and people who prefer one or the other) 
 +  * complex food distribution and production (present: focus on reduction of complexity and shortening of supply-chains) 
 +  * growing awareness of health risks 
 +  * present: refocusing on the local, respecialisation, relocalisation, bringing back forgotten varieties and species, focus on (hyper)seasonal products 
 +  * vicious circle of more people - more food: focus on cheap and voluminous rather than nutritious; lowering of household's food budgets - health risks due to consumption of junk food 
 +  * dangerous footprint of meat production (concentration of animal manure) and other industrial byproducts 
 +  * internet is changing distribution and consumption patterns, as well as non-industrial food production; information spreads faster and supply-chains are becoming more convoluted and personalised 
 +  * proliferation of foodies movements focused on healthy, tasty, virtuoso food preparation and consumption;  
 +  * open source food movements 
 +  * diet cults (and disconnection from food production and waste)
  
-">" means "inducing" 
  
-[in square brackets are the references] **NO`tE:** you can also add footnotes like so((well researched and referenced)) 
  
-===Social===+====drivers==== 
 + 
 +Social 
 + 
 +  * Health 
 +  * Diet 
 +  * Aging 
 +  * Urbanisation 
 +  * Food Culture 
 + 
 +Technological 
 + 
 +  * Agricultural Technology 
 +  * GMO / Synthetic biology 
 +  * Internet of Things 
 +  * Customisation 
 +  * Antibiotic availability 
 +  * Food science 
 + 
 +Economic 
 + 
 +  * Energy 
 +  * Financing 
 +  * Equality 
 +  * Dominant crops 
 +  * Scale 
 +  * Patenting 
 + 
 +Environment 
 + 
 +  * Pollution 
 +  * Unpredictability 
 +  * Degradation 
 +  * Availability of raw materials (water, seeds, soil...) 
 + 
 +Political 
 + 
 +  * Conservatism 
 +  * Nationalism 
 +  * Unconditional Basic Income 
 +  * Food Security 
 +  * Transnational Agreements 
 +  * Laws and Regulations 
 + 
 +Thematically clustered drivers: 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585393644/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585072463/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13585034475/}} \\ 
 + 
 + 
 + 
 +====causal layered analysis==== 
 + 
 +Analysis of thematically clustered drivers looking at their social causes, underlying worldviews and cultural myths: 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604606344/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604224645/}} \\ 
 + 
 +{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/13604554614/}} \\ 
 + 
 + 
 + 
 +====Drivers in detail ==== 
 + 
 +Horizon: less than 50 years. 
  
 ===Technological=== ===Technological===
Line 26: Line 108:
      * > unknown health effects      * > unknown health effects
  
-   * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects.+   * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers ([[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12267561|promoted by Right-to-Food special rapporteur Olivier de Schutter]]) > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects and mitigating the risk of such effects.
  
    * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23576143|the lab-grown hamburger]])     * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23576143|the lab-grown hamburger]]) 
Line 33: Line 115:
 ===Environmental=== ===Environmental===
  
-   * Massive pollution of water, soil and atmosphere +   * Increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere 
      * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines      * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines
      * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.      * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.
Line 39: Line 121:
    * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.    * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  
-   * Increase of desertification > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.+   * Changes in desertification and rainfall patterns > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  
    * Climate change    * Climate change
-     * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, f. i. Floods & Droughts  +     * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, e.g. Floods & Droughts  
-       * > localized high food scarcity;  +       * > localized food scarcity;  
-       * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economical trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.+       * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.
      * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.      * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.
 +       * See detailed results from IPCC report below.
  
    * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food     * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
Line 57: Line 140:
      * > geopolitical instability.      * > geopolitical instability.
  
 +
 +reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FGDall.pdf
  
 {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}} {{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}}
Line 62: Line 147:
 IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a
  
-===Economical===+==Change in Plant Crops Production== 
 + 
 +   * India: global loss in cereal production. 
 +   * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans. 
 +   * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy 
 +   * Europe:  
 +     * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates. 
 +     * Moderate change in Continental North. 
 +     * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates. 
 +   * Australia: global decrease. 
 + 
 +==Change in Livestock Production== 
 + 
 +   * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy 
 +   * Europe: 
 +     * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields. 
 +     * Italy & Netherlands: bad for mozzarella & gouda 
 +     * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus 
 +   * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia. 
 +   * South America: 
 +     * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase. 
 +     * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle. 
 +     * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle. 
 +   * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields. 
 + 
 +{{ :future_fabulators:giec_figure_ge_ne_rale_-_copie.jpg?800 |}} 
 + 
 +===Economic===
  
    * Increased globalization of economy    * Increased globalization of economy
Line 69: Line 181:
        * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;         * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; 
        * > geopolitical instability.        * > geopolitical instability.
-     * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted +     * Hyper-[[http://www.postcarbon.org/article/305585-specialization-and-globalization-genies-at-our|specialisation]] of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted 
        * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;         * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; 
        * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;         * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; 
Line 75: Line 187:
  
    * Increased financiarisation of economy    * Increased financiarisation of economy
-     * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food+     * [[http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodprices.html|Adverse effects of speculation on food prices]] > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
        * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;         * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; 
        * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;         * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; 
        * > geopolitical instability.        * > geopolitical instability.
  
-   * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food +   * [[http://www.inegalites.fr/spip.php?page=analyse&id_article=1911&id_groupe=20&id_rubrique=28&id_mot=15|Increasing inequities in personal wealth]] > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
      * > starvation for specific locations & poor people      * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
      * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population      * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
Line 92: Line 204:
      * > [[http://www.projet-decroissance.net/?p=1640|depending on how it would be defined]], it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results.      * > [[http://www.projet-decroissance.net/?p=1640|depending on how it would be defined]], it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results.
  
-===Demographic=== 
  
-   * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.+===Social & Cultural === 
 + 
 +   * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  
    * Increase of urban population    * Increase of urban population
-     * Massive amount of energy needed to bring food to urban citizens +     * Massive amount of energy used to bring food to urban citizens 
        * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food         * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
          * > starvation for specific locations & poor people          * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
Line 108: Line 221:
        * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population        * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
        * > geopolitical instability.        * > geopolitical instability.
- 
-===Cultural=== 
  
    * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...)     * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) 
Line 136: Line 247:
  
  
 +====misc/notes/sort====
  
-====misc/sort====+"People tend to find the taste of Soylent to be familiar: the predominant sensation is one of doughiness. The liquid is smooth but grainy in your mouth, and it has a yeasty, comforting blandness about it." [[http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2014/05/12/140512fa_fact_widdicombe?currentPage=all&mobify=0|Could Soylent Replace Food?]]
  
   * e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn   * e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn
   * e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables   * e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables
 +  * https://delicious.com/zzkt/food 
 +  * http://agalmic.org/tagged/food
   * infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/   * infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/
   * historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html   * historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html
  • future_fabulators/food_horizons.txt
  • Last modified: 2014-10-25 16:02
  • by maja
  • Currently locked by: 18.191.202.45