✎ future_fabulators:food_horizons [the libarynth]

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==== Food Horizons ====

a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/

eg.
https://delicious.com/zzkt/food \\
http://agalmic.org/tagged/food

====Trends per Type====

Horizon: less than 50 years.

">" means "inducing"

[in square brackets are the references] **NO`tE:** you can also add footnotes like so((well researched and referenced))

===Social===

===Technological===

* Development of "resource-efficient" large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation...) [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?|(in french), article on Reporterre on French government's strategy towards "industrial agro-ecology"]]
     * > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4054|(in French), article on Reporterre on adverse environmental effects of large-scale methanisation]]

* Development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share [[http://rue89.nouvelobs.com/2014/03/29/mobilisation-generale-contre-grand-mechant-marche-transatlantique-251038|(in French), article on how the US-EU free-trade zone will bring GMO food to Europe]]
     * > unknown health effects

* Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers ([[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12267561|promoted by Right-to-Food special rapporteur Olivier de Schutter]]) > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects and mitigating the risk of such effects.

* Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23576143|the lab-grown hamburger]]) 
     * > only for very rich people, with [[http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/08/is-lab-grown-meat-good-for-us/278778/|unknown impact on health]].

===Environmental===

* increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere 
     * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines
     * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.

* Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

* Changes in desertification and rainfall patterns > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

* Climate change
     * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, e.g. Floods & Droughts 
       * > localized food scarcity; 
       * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.
     * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.
       * See detailed results from IPCC report below.

* Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
     * > geopolitical instability.

* Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on "traveling food" prices > when combined with increased inequities in personal wealth (see Economical Ttrends), reduce of food ingredients availability for most of the population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
     * > geopolitical instability.

reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FGDall.pdf

IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a

==Change in Plant Crops Production==

* India: global loss in cereal production.
   * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans.
   * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy
   * Europe: 
     * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates.
     * Moderate change in Continental North.
     * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates.
   * Australia: global decrease.

==Change in Livestock Production==

* Africa: less Livestock & Dairy
   * Europe:
     * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields.
     * Italy & Netherlands: bad for mozzarella & gouda
     * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus
   * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia.
   * South America:
     * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase.
     * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle.
     * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle.
   * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields.

===Economic===

* Increased globalization of economy
     * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted 
       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; 
       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; 
       * > geopolitical instability.
     * Hyper-[[http://www.postcarbon.org/article/305585-specialization-and-globalization-genies-at-our|specialisation]] of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted 
       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; 
       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; 
       * > geopolitical instability.

* Increased financiarisation of economy
     * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people; 
       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; 
       * > geopolitical instability.

* Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
     * > geopolitical instability.
   
   * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4806|(in French) integral cooperatives]], local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives 
     * > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale 
       * > better global health at local population scale.
   
   * Global game changer: if a major demographic group, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income. It is about to be [[http://bien.ch/fr/node/417|voted by the population in Switzerland]] and has been proposed as a [[http://basicincome2013.eu/|popular initiative in Europe]] 
     * > [[http://www.projet-decroissance.net/?p=1640|depending on how it would be defined]], it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results.

===Demographic===

* Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

* Increase of urban population
     * Massive amount of energy used to bring food to urban citizens 
       * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
         * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
         * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
         * > geopolitical instability.
       * > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to massive transport
         * > adverse health effects.
     * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
       * > geopolitical instability.

===Cultural===

* Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) 
     * > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture
       * > pollution
         * > adverse health effects
     * > low food diversity
       * > adverse health effects

* Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) 
     * > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ?

* Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health.

===Political===

* Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http://blogs.mediapart.fr/blog/malto-cortese/221113/agriculteurs-et-jardiniers-seront-ils-bientot-obliges-de-cultiver-dans-la-clandestinite|(in French), an article from Mediapart on seeds patenting]]
     * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture.
     * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food 
       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
       * > geopolitical instability.

* Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements [[http://www.lesinrocks.com/2012/05/29/actualite/le-fantasme-dune-arme-de-nonazis-11262225/|(in French), an article from les Inrocks analysing the situation of far-right parties in Europe]] > (violent) incentive back to traditional culture, and therefore cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ?

====misc/sort====

* e.g. http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/34/Garlic-Roasted-Potatoes/trn
  * e.g. https://www.quora.com/Cooking/What-are-some-technique-to-chopping-vegetables
  * infographics from foodnetwork http://www.wired.com/design/2013/10/26-amazing-food-infographics/
  * historical changes in ingredients http://cryptoforest.blogspot.be/2013/11/charting-geographical-origins-of.html
  * "The Honeywell Kitchen Computer or H316 [...] represented the first time a computer was offered as a consumer product." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honeywell_316#Kitchen_Computer
  * "Bullipedia is a professional tool based on the codification of a creative discipline." from elBulli Foundation. http://hackingbullipedia.org/bullipedia3-2
  * "A Work in Progress: Notes on Food, Cooking and Creativity" by René Redzepi. http://nyjournalofbooks.com/review/work-progress-notes-food-cooking-and-creativity
  * "TASTED is a project that investigates the way we taste food and its flavor." http://www.simona-derosa.com/works/#/tasted/
  * network analysis "Flavor network and the principles of food pairing". http://www.nature.com/srep/2011/111215/srep00196/full/srep00196.html
  * general principles of cooking with coconut milk. http://ask.metafilter.com/257507/What-are-the-general-principles-for-cooking-with-coconut-milk
  * An app for flavour profiling. https://www.gastrograph.com/

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