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future_fabulators:horizon_scanning [2014-02-13 04:44] – maja | future_fabulators:horizon_scanning [2014-03-03 04:08] – maja | ||
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- | * [[http:// | + | * [[http:// |
* [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
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+ | < | ||
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+ | Thirteen rules for scanning (by D. Jarvis): | ||
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+ | * The future is already here, you need to find it | ||
+ | * Look for clues, not comprehensive evidence | ||
+ | * Go deep, explore, focus broadly | ||
+ | * Do not ignore evidence to the contrary, have an open mind | ||
+ | * Take a global perspective | ||
+ | * Look for the novel, unfamiliar and uninteresting | ||
+ | * Look for interactions and combinations | ||
+ | * Study history to understand the context | ||
+ | * Make scanning an ongoing, integrated activity | ||
+ | * Make scanning a shared, social process | ||
+ | * Identify credible sources | ||
+ | * Scanning should be relevant (to the organisation) | ||
+ | * Get out from behind the computer - the future isn’t online: | ||
+ | * "The future is not yet written down, it is concentrated in people and places - find and engage with remarkable people | ||
+ | * Learning journeys (seek out and learn from innovators and thinkers, have immersive experiences (" | ||
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+ | Existing scanning frameworks: | ||
+ | * STEEP(VD): Social, Technological, | ||
+ | * DEGEST: Demography, Environment, | ||
+ | * PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, | ||
+ | * FAFA (an [[integral futures]] method: | ||
+ | * Find: where and how to look for scanning hits | ||
+ | * Analyse: use cross-level analysis (as well as causal-layered analysis) to expand the interpretation of the resulting scanning hits | ||
+ | * Frame: create a framework for organising insights from the scanning hits | ||
+ | * Apply: use the insights to inform the subsequent phases of the project | ||
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+ | Phases of environmental scanning: | ||
+ | * Framing (understanding the need) | ||
+ | * Planning (sources and methods) | ||
+ | * Executing (monitor sources, perform searches…) | ||
+ | * Sense making (determine the relevance and implications) | ||
+ | * Adapting (review and adjust the system) | ||
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+ | Keep a scanning journal: title, source, summary, category (STEEP), creating/ | ||
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+ | </ | ||
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+ | From [[http:// |