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--- future_fabulators:horizon_scanning [2014-02-18 03:57] – maja
+++ future_fabulators:horizon_scanning [2014-03-04 07:02] – maja
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   * [[http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/|Online collection of trends]]
   * [[http://www.trendwiki.fi/en/|TrendWiki]]
-  * [[http://www.futurescaper.com/|Futurescraper]]
+  * [[http://www.futurescaper.com/|Futurescaper]]
-  * [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/wls-three-horizons-18-sept-2013|Three horizons]]
+  * [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/wls-three-horizons-18-sept-2013|Three horizons]] and [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S04.pdf|The hero's Journey across Turbulent Systems]] by Wendy Schulz et al
-  * [[http://www.slideshare.net/dajarvis/mgt581-sensing-the-future|Overview of environmental scanning]]
   * [[http://www.superflux.in/work/tarotcards|Synbio Tarot]] downloadable from this page
+<blockquote>
+Thirteen rules for scanning (by D. Jarvis):
+  * The future is already here, you need to find it
+  * Look for clues, not comprehensive evidence
+  * Go deep, explore, focus broadly
+  * Do not ignore evidence to the contrary, have an open mind
+  * Take a global perspective
+  * Look for the novel, unfamiliar and uninteresting
+  * Look for interactions and combinations
+  * Study history to understand the context
+  * Make scanning an ongoing, integrated activity
+  * Make scanning a shared, social process
+  * Identify credible sources
+  * Scanning should be relevant (to the organisation)
+  * Get out from behind the computer - the future isn’t online:
+    * "The future is not yet written down, it is concentrated in people and places - find and engage with remarkable people
+    * Learning journeys (seek out and learn from innovators and thinkers, have immersive experiences ("Finding the future: Why "learning Journeys Give and Adaptive Edge" Nicole-Anne Boyer)
+Existing scanning frameworks:
+  * STEEP(VD): Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, (Values), (Demographic)
+  * DEGEST: Demography, Environment, Government, Economy, Society, Technology
+  * PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, (Legal), (Environmental)
+  * FAFA (an [[integral futures]] method:
+    * Find: where and how to look for scanning hits
+    * Analyse: use cross-level analysis (as well as causal-layered analysis) to expand the interpretation of the resulting scanning hits
+    * Frame: create a framework for organising insights from the scanning hits
+    * Apply: use the insights to inform the subsequent phases of the project
+Phases of environmental scanning:
+  * Framing (understanding the need)
+  * Planning (sources and methods)
+  * Executing (monitor sources, perform searches…)
+  * Sense making (determine the relevance and implications)
+  * Adapting (review and adjust the system)
+Keep a scanning journal: title, source, summary, category (STEEP), creating/confirming/countering (and why), impact and relevance
+</blockquote>
+From [[http://www.slideshare.net/dajarvis/mgt581-sensing-the-future|Overview of environmental scanning]] by D. Jarvis