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--- future_fabulators:non_predictive_strategy [2014-02-11 05:03] – created nik
+++ future_fabulators:non_predictive_strategy [2014-02-11 05:30] – nik
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 http://silberzahnjones.com/2011/10/10/gresham%E2%80%99s-law-of-strategy-why-bad-advice-drives-out-good-advice/
+"Scenario planning is not, or rather should not be, about forecasting the future. Instead, it is a tool for collective learning; what matters is what the scenario team learns in creating it.  As an exercise, it is useful; as a strategic map for outsiders, it is relatively useless.  Therefore, instead of using it as a map for your organization, ignore its conclusion, ignore the scenarios themselves, and think about the trends, forces and events that the NIC identifies, and then add your own, based on your intuition and expertise.
+In short:
+  * Don’t fall for the forecasting trap: think about the future, but don’t try to predict it.
+  * Treat others’ forecasts as a learning exercise: get your strategy team to engage in a strategic conversation about the future using the report as a starting point.
+  * Pay particular attention to what is not said or not written, and why: the NIC’s effort ignore crucial factors.
+  * Most importantly, impress upon your strategy team both the unpredictability of the long-term future and the fact that action is frequently the best way to forecast.  As Gandhi said in a different context:  “Be the change you would find in the world”.
+Ultimately, strategy is about a desired future and how to get there. So don’t ask what the future will be, but rather what future you desire, and how you will bring it about."
+http://www.forbes.com/sites/silberzahnjones/2013/01/17/lady-gaga-world-president-by-2030-why-the-forecasters-so-often-get-it-wrong/