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--- future_fabulators:non_predictive_strategy [2014-03-05 00:08] – nik
+++ future_fabulators:non_predictive_strategy [2014-03-05 00:09] – nik
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-"Some have assumed that key to successfully dealing with uncertainty is to take a deep dive into the long-term future.  Even when the difficulty of prediction is acknowledged, effort is still devoted to imagining alternative possible futures. This is the case of scenario planning, one of the most popular of such approaches. [...]  There is, in fact, a fundamental flaw in such approaches: it assumes that we can somehow successfully imagine the central aspects of the future.  There is ample evidence, however, that this is not true.  We do a terrible job imagining the future, sometimes with dreadful consequences, and scenario planning (developed commercially beginning forty years ago at Shell) hasn’t helped us much."
+"Some have assumed that key to successfully dealing with uncertainty is to take a deep dive into the long-term future.  Even when the difficulty of prediction is acknowledged, effort is still devoted to imagining alternative possible futures. This is the case of scenario planning, one of the most popular of such approaches. [...]  There is, in fact, a fundamental flaw in such approaches: it assumes that we can somehow successfully imagine the central aspects of the future.  There is ample evidence, however, that this is not true.  We do a terrible job imagining the future, sometimes with dreadful consequences, and scenario planning (developed commercially beginning forty years ago at Shell) hasn’t helped us much." --Silberzahn & Jones
 Related: [[KPUU Framework]] and [[Strategies for Antifragility]]