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future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-11 08:22] – nik | future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-14 06:49] – [Scenario Planning] maja | ||
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==== Scenario Planning ==== | ==== Scenario Planning ==== | ||
- | This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. | + | This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. |
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+ | Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World | ||
====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== | ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== | ||
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http:// | http:// | ||
+ | ==== What is the purpose of scenarios? ==== | ||
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+ | The purpose of scenarios is to systematically explore, create, and test both possible and desirable future conditions. Scenarios can help generate long-term policies, strategies, and plans, which help bring desired and likely future circumstances in closer alignment. They can also expose ignorance; show that we do not know how to get to a specific future or that it is impossible. | ||
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+ | Exploratory or descriptive scenarios describe events and trends as they could evolve based on alternative assumptions on how these events and trends may influence the future. Normative scenarios describe how a desirable future can emerge from the present. | ||
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+ | In general, the term scenario has been used in two different ways: first, to describe a snapshot in time or the conditions of important variables at some particular time in the future; second, to describe a future history—that is, the evolution from present conditions to one of several futures. | ||
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+ | The latter approach is generally preferred because it can lay out the causal chain of decisions and circumstances that lead from the present. The most useful scenarios are those that display the conditions of important variables over time. | ||
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+ | The goal of generating scenarios is to understand the mix of strategic decisions that are of maximum benefit in the face of various uncertainties and challenges posed by the external environment. Scenario building, in conjunction with a careful analysis of the driving forces, fosters systematic study of potential future possibilities—both good and bad. | ||
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+ | </ | ||
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+ | From [[http:// | ||
- | ==== How to Build Scenarios ==== | + | ==== Scenarios |
< | < |