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| future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-12 01:32] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-14 06:49] – [Scenario Planning] maja |
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| ==== Scenario Planning ==== | ==== Scenario Planning ==== |
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| This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. | This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios, look at [[scenario methods]]. |
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| <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> | <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> |
| http://www.forbes.com/sites/silberzahnjones/2013/01/17/lady-gaga-world-president-by-2030-why-the-forecasters-so-often-get-it-wrong/ | http://www.forbes.com/sites/silberzahnjones/2013/01/17/lady-gaga-world-president-by-2030-why-the-forecasters-so-often-get-it-wrong/ |
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| | ==== What is the purpose of scenarios? ==== |
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| ==== How to Build Scenarios ==== | <blockquote>Herman Kahn defined scenarios as narrative descriptions of the future that focus attention on causal processes and decision points. (Kahn 1967) No scenario is ever probable; the probability of any scenario ever being realized is minute. Scenarios should be judged by their ability to help decisionmakers make policy now, rather than whether they turn out to be right or wrong. “Good” scenarios are those that are: 1) Plausible (a rational route from here to there that make causal processes and decisions explicit); 2) Internally consistent (alternative scenarios should address similar issues so that they can be compared; and 3) Sufficiently interesting and exciting to make the future “real” enough to affect decision making. |
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| | (...) |
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| | The purpose of scenarios is to systematically explore, create, and test both possible and desirable future conditions. Scenarios can help generate long-term policies, strategies, and plans, which help bring desired and likely future circumstances in closer alignment. They can also expose ignorance; show that we do not know how to get to a specific future or that it is impossible. |
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| | Exploratory or descriptive scenarios describe events and trends as they could evolve based on alternative assumptions on how these events and trends may influence the future. Normative scenarios describe how a desirable future can emerge from the present. |
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| | (...) |
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| | In general, the term scenario has been used in two different ways: first, to describe a snapshot in time or the conditions of important variables at some particular time in the future; second, to describe a future history—that is, the evolution from present conditions to one of several futures. |
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| | (...) |
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| | The latter approach is generally preferred because it can lay out the causal chain of decisions and circumstances that lead from the present. The most useful scenarios are those that display the conditions of important variables over time. |
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| | The goal of generating scenarios is to understand the mix of strategic decisions that are of maximum benefit in the face of various uncertainties and challenges posed by the external environment. Scenario building, in conjunction with a careful analysis of the driving forces, fosters systematic study of potential future possibilities—both good and bad. |
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| | </blockquote> |
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| | From [[http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html|Futures Research Methodology]] |
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| | ==== Scenarios and decisions ==== |
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| <blockquote>Scenario planning derives from the observation that, given the impossibility of knowing precisely how the future will play out, a good decision or strategy to adopt is one that plays out well across several possible futures. To find that "robust" strategy, scenarios are created in plural, such that each scenario diverges markedly from the others. These sets of scenarios are, essentially, specially constructed stories about the future, each one modeling a distinct, plausible world in which we might someday have to live and work. | <blockquote>Scenario planning derives from the observation that, given the impossibility of knowing precisely how the future will play out, a good decision or strategy to adopt is one that plays out well across several possible futures. To find that "robust" strategy, scenarios are created in plural, such that each scenario diverges markedly from the others. These sets of scenarios are, essentially, specially constructed stories about the future, each one modeling a distinct, plausible world in which we might someday have to live and work. |
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