Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

--- future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-14 06:47] – maja
+++ future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-21 08:43] – maja
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 ==== Scenario Planning ====
-This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators.
+This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios, look at [[scenario methods]].
 <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote>
 Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World
+<blockquote>... scenario writing (...) is fundamentally an act of evidence-based imagination" -Geoffrey Coyle </blockquote>
+<blockquote>"In my experience, scenario planning is an interpretive practice – it’s really closer to magic than technique. ... Look long enough, hard enough, and the pieces will fall into place. Magic is a very difficult thing – most people spend their whole life cutting magic out.” --Napier Collyns</blockquote>
+<blockquote>A good scenario grabs us by the collar and says, "Take a good look at this future. This could be your future. Are you going to be ready?"</blockquote>
+From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]]
+==== Scenarios as disruptions ====
+<blockquote>A basic tenet of futures studies is that images of the future inform the decisions people make and how they act. The notion that human purpose can affect the course of events to create futures that are significant transformations of the present underlies all of futures research.
+(…) these depictions are not predictions: while based on probabilistic forecasts, their primary purpose is to guide exploration of possible future states. Their goal is to "disturb the present," in Gaston Berger's words (1967). The best scenarios do so by describing alternative future outcomes that diverge significantly from the present. </blockquote>
+From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf|Roads Less Travelled]] by Wendy Schulz et al
 ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking====
@@ Line 52: / Line 69: @@
 From [[http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html|Futures Research Methodology]]
-==== How to Build Scenarios ====
+==== Scenarios and decisions ====
 <blockquote>Scenario planning derives from the observation that, given the impossibility of knowing precisely how the future will play out, a good decision or strategy to adopt is one that plays out well across several possible futures. To find that "robust" strategy, scenarios are created in plural, such that each scenario diverges markedly from the others. These sets of scenarios are, essentially, specially constructed stories about the future, each one modeling a distinct, plausible world in which we might someday have to live and work.
@@ Line 107: / Line 124: @@
 http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000433.html
+==== Strengths and weaknesses of scenarios ====
+<blockquote>A strength of scenario is to help develop plans that are viable over the wide range of possible futures—with both plans and a process that manage uncertainty. Scenario-based planning meets this strategic challenge. (…) Instead of each possibility being a potential threat to a rigid plan, they tend to be evaluated as sign posts, indicating paths along the way to alternative and anticipated futures.
+A weakness of scenarios is that they can be given to non-participants, who can then see the scenarios as the “official set of possible futures” and hence, control or limit their thinking to some degree. They have great ability to influence the reader in subtle ways due to the writer’s assumptions about cause and effect. The writer’s mental model of how the world works is transferred to the reader, and possibly unconsciously accepted. </blockquote>
+From: [[http://www.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3310&ei=R9n9UqixEIrmkAXymIDoBA&usg=AFQjCNGaA2QdNlSF3_6roa_YCSR0ez29SA&sig2=GEyGJ_CH5qo-INVR4kz0XQ&bvm=bv.61190604,d.dGI|Futures Research Methodology: Scenarios]]
 ==== Steps to developing scenarios ====
@@ Line 120: / Line 146: @@
   * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz
   * http://www.driversofchange.com/
-  * Related reference pages: [[:/forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]]
+  * Related reference pages: [[scenario_methods]], [[:/forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]]
   * Notes and [[confabulation]]
   * Related project: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]]
+  * More unstructured [[references]]