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| future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-14 06:49] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-18 04:26] – maja |
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| ==== Scenario Planning ==== | ==== Scenario Planning ==== |
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| This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios, look at [[scenario methodologies]]. | This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios, look at [[scenario methods]]. |
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| <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> | <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> |
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| http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000433.html | http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000433.html |
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| | ==== Strengths and weaknesses of scenarios ==== |
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| | <blockquote>A strength of scenario is to help develop plans that are viable over the wide range of possible futures—with both plans and a process that manage uncertainty. Scenario-based planning meets this strategic challenge. (…) Instead of each possibility being a potential threat to a rigid plan, they tend to be evaluated as sign posts, indicating paths along the way to alternative and anticipated futures. |
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| | A weakness of scenarios is that they can be given to non-participants, who can then see the scenarios as the “official set of possible futures” and hence, control or limit their thinking to some degree. They have great ability to influence the reader in subtle ways due to the writer’s assumptions about cause and effect. The writer’s mental model of how the world works is transferred to the reader, and possibly unconsciously accepted. </blockquote> |
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| | From: [[http://www.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3310&ei=R9n9UqixEIrmkAXymIDoBA&usg=AFQjCNGaA2QdNlSF3_6roa_YCSR0ez29SA&sig2=GEyGJ_CH5qo-INVR4kz0XQ&bvm=bv.61190604,d.dGI|Futures Research Methodology: Scenarios]] |
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| ==== Steps to developing scenarios ==== | ==== Steps to developing scenarios ==== |
| * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz | * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz |
| * http://www.driversofchange.com/ | * http://www.driversofchange.com/ |
| * Related reference pages: [[:/forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]] | * Related reference pages: [[scenario_methods]], [[:/forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]] |
| * Notes and [[confabulation]] | * Notes and [[confabulation]] |
| * Related project: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]] | * Related project: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]] |
| | * More unstructured [[references]] |
alkan