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| future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-19 06:58] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-21 08:43] – maja |
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| From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]] | From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]] |
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| | ==== Scenarios as disruptions ==== |
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| | <blockquote>A basic tenet of futures studies is that images of the future inform the decisions people make and how they act. The notion that human purpose can affect the course of events to create futures that are significant transformations of the present underlies all of futures research. |
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| | (…) these depictions are not predictions: while based on probabilistic forecasts, their primary purpose is to guide exploration of possible future states. Their goal is to "disturb the present," in Gaston Berger's words (1967). The best scenarios do so by describing alternative future outcomes that diverge significantly from the present. </blockquote> |
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| | From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf|Roads Less Travelled]] by Wendy Schulz et al |
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| ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== | ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== |
alkan