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| future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-19 06:58] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_building [2014-03-04 05:03] – [Scenario Building] maja |
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| ==== Scenario Planning ==== | ==== Scenario Building ==== |
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| This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios, look at [[scenario methods]]. | This page is a collection of quotes and references that inspire our development of [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios yourself, read through our evolving collection of [[scenario_methods]]. |
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| <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> | <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> |
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| From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]] | From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]] |
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| | ==== Scenarios as disruptions ==== |
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| | <blockquote>A basic tenet of futures studies is that images of the future inform the decisions people make and how they act. The notion that human purpose can affect the course of events to create futures that are significant transformations of the present underlies all of futures research. |
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| | (…) these depictions are not predictions: while based on probabilistic forecasts, their primary purpose is to guide exploration of possible future states. Their goal is to "disturb the present," in Gaston Berger's words (1967). The best scenarios do so by describing alternative future outcomes that diverge significantly from the present. </blockquote> |
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| | From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf|Roads Less Travelled]] by Wendy Schulz et al |
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| | ==== Future Histories ==== |
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| | <blockquote>[Scenarios] cannot be anything more than expressions of alternative interpretations of aspects of the current reality. Essentially we put ourselves at an imaginative future vantage point and describe what is going on right now as if we were looking at what is happening today from the perspective of a future historian. </blockquote> |
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| | Kees van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation |
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| ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== | ====Scenario planning & scenario thinking==== |
| * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/ | * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/ |
| * Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: http://www.slideshare.net/adgo/scenario-building-workshop-how-to-build-and-use-scenarios | * Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: http://www.slideshare.net/adgo/scenario-building-workshop-how-to-build-and-use-scenarios |
| * [[taleb's rules]] | * [[taleb_s_rules]] |
| * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz | * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz |
| * http://www.driversofchange.com/ | * http://www.driversofchange.com/ |
| * Related reference pages: [[scenario_methods]], [[:/forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]] | * Related reference pages: [[scenario_methods]], [[::forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]] |
| * Notes and [[confabulation]] | * Notes and [[confabulation]] |
| * Related project: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]] | * Related project: [[:resilients:future_preparedness]] |
| * More unstructured [[references]] | * More unstructured [[references]] |
alkan