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| future_fabulators:scenario_planning [2014-02-21 08:43] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_building [2014-03-04 05:12] – [Crowdsourced Futures] maja |
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| ==== Scenario Planning ==== | ==== Scenario Building ==== |
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| This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios, look at [[scenario methods]]. | This page is a collection of quotes and references that inspire our development of [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios yourself, read through our evolving collection of [[scenario_methods]]. |
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| <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> | <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> |
| Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World | From: Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World |
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| <blockquote>... scenario writing (...) is fundamentally an act of evidence-based imagination" -Geoffrey Coyle </blockquote> | <blockquote>... scenario writing (...) is fundamentally an act of evidence-based imagination" -Geoffrey Coyle </blockquote> |
| <blockquote>A good scenario grabs us by the collar and says, "Take a good look at this future. This could be your future. Are you going to be ready?"</blockquote> | <blockquote>A good scenario grabs us by the collar and says, "Take a good look at this future. This could be your future. Are you going to be ready?"</blockquote> |
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| From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]] | From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]] by Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins |
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| ==== Scenarios as disruptions ==== | ==== Scenarios as disruptions ==== |
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| From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf|Roads Less Travelled]] by Wendy Schulz et al | From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf|Roads Less Travelled]] by Wendy Schulz et al |
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| | ==== Future Histories ==== |
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| | <blockquote>[Scenarios] cannot be anything more than expressions of alternative interpretations of aspects of the current reality. Essentially we put ourselves at an imaginative future vantage point and describe what is going on right now as if we were looking at what is happening today from the perspective of a future historian. </blockquote> |
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| | Kees van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation |
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| http://news.noahraford.com/?p=313 | http://news.noahraford.com/?p=313 |
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| ==== Crowdsourced Futures ==== | |
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| "Next generation futures systems will therefore have to address the synthesis and interpretation of results in a way that is more substantial and useful than most crowdsourcing solutions today. At the same time, they will also need to engage the social dynamics of participation more directly; why people contribute, what they get out of it, and how it factors into the final product (which will most likely be for a very different, paying, audience)." | |
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| http://noahraford.com/?p=1603 | |
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| ==== Scenarios and permaculture ==== | ==== Scenarios and permaculture ==== |
| * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/ | * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/ |
| * Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: http://www.slideshare.net/adgo/scenario-building-workshop-how-to-build-and-use-scenarios | * Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: http://www.slideshare.net/adgo/scenario-building-workshop-how-to-build-and-use-scenarios |
| * [[taleb's rules]] | * [[taleb_s_rules]] |
| * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz | * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz |
| * http://www.driversofchange.com/ | * http://www.driversofchange.com/ |
| * Related reference pages: [[scenario_methods]], [[:/forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]] | * Related reference pages: [[scenario_methods]], [[::forecasting]], [[non_predictive_strategy]] |
| * Notes and [[confabulation]] | * Notes and [[confabulation]] |
| * Related project: [[:resilients/future_preparedness]] | * Related project: [[:resilients:future_preparedness]] |
| * More unstructured [[references]] | * More unstructured [[references]] |
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