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| future_fabulators:scenario_building [2014-02-21 08:44] – Page name changed from future_fabulators:scenario_planning to future_fabulators:scenario_building maja | future_fabulators:scenario_building [2014-07-06 16:57] – [References and further reading] nik |
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| ==== Scenario Planning ==== | ==== Scenario Building ==== |
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| This page is a collection of quotes and references on which we build to develop [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios, look at [[scenario_methods]]. | This page is a collection of quotes and references that inspire our development of [[scenarios]] with Future Fabulators. If you are interested in how to build scenarios yourself, read through our evolving collection of [[scenario_methods]]. |
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| <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> | <blockquote>Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”</blockquote> |
| Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World | From: Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World |
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| <blockquote>... scenario writing (...) is fundamentally an act of evidence-based imagination" -Geoffrey Coyle </blockquote> | <blockquote>... scenario writing (...) is fundamentally an act of evidence-based imagination" -Geoffrey Coyle </blockquote> |
| <blockquote>A good scenario grabs us by the collar and says, "Take a good look at this future. This could be your future. Are you going to be ready?"</blockquote> | <blockquote>A good scenario grabs us by the collar and says, "Take a good look at this future. This could be your future. Are you going to be ready?"</blockquote> |
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| From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]] | From: [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|the current state of scenario development]] by Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins |
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| ==== Scenarios as disruptions ==== | ==== Scenarios as disruptions ==== |
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| From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf|Roads Less Travelled]] by Wendy Schulz et al | From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf|Roads Less Travelled]] by Wendy Schulz et al |
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| | ==== Future Histories ==== |
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| | <blockquote>[Scenarios] cannot be anything more than expressions of alternative interpretations of aspects of the current reality. Essentially we put ourselves at an imaginative future vantage point and describe what is going on right now as if we were looking at what is happening today from the perspective of a future historian. </blockquote> |
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| | Kees van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation |
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| http://news.noahraford.com/?p=313 | http://news.noahraford.com/?p=313 |
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| ==== Crowdsourced Futures ==== | |
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| "Next generation futures systems will therefore have to address the synthesis and interpretation of results in a way that is more substantial and useful than most crowdsourcing solutions today. At the same time, they will also need to engage the social dynamics of participation more directly; why people contribute, what they get out of it, and how it factors into the final product (which will most likely be for a very different, paying, audience)." | |
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| http://noahraford.com/?p=1603 | |
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| ==== Scenarios and permaculture ==== | ==== Scenarios and permaculture ==== |
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| <blockquote>FutureScenarios.org presents an integrated approach to understanding the potential interaction between Climate Change and Peak Oil using a scenario planning model. In the process I introduce permaculture as a design system specifically evolved over the last 30 years to creatively respond to futures that involve progressively less and less available energy. </blockquote> | <blockquote>FutureScenarios.org presents an integrated approach to understanding the potential interaction between Climate Change and Peak Oil using a scenario planning model. In the process I introduce permaculture as a design system specifically evolved over the last 30 years to creatively respond to futures that involve progressively less and less available energy. </blockquote> |
| * David Holmgren's website on [[http://www.futurescenarios.org/|Future Scenarios]], where he mixes scenario planning and permaculture design methods. | From David Holmgren's website on [[http://www.futurescenarios.org/|Future Scenarios]], where he mixes scenario planning and permaculture design methods. |
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| ==== Scenarios ==== | ==== Characteristics of Scenarios ==== |
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| | <blockquote> |
| * They're provocative -- they push the readers to think about possibilities they'd often rather not face. While this often means confronting unpleasant outcomes, it can also mean admitting the possibility of success, what it would take to get there, and what one would do if it happened. | * They're provocative -- they push the readers to think about possibilities they'd often rather not face. While this often means confronting unpleasant outcomes, it can also mean admitting the possibility of success, what it would take to get there, and what one would do if it happened. |
| * They're plausible -- they make use of real-world facts and models to construct a set of futures that could actually come about. This is important, especially for organizations trying to make the world face up to the challenges in front of it. | * They're plausible -- they make use of real-world facts and models to construct a set of futures that could actually come about. This is important, especially for organizations trying to make the world face up to the challenges in front of it. |
| * They're broad -- while they usually have a specific issue as a focal question, they can't simply look at the actions of the organization or group at the issue's heart. Good scenarios look at the context of an issue, and examine changes across a wide spectrum of concerns. | * They're broad -- while they usually have a specific issue as a focal question, they can't simply look at the actions of the organization or group at the issue's heart. Good scenarios look at the context of an issue, and examine changes across a wide spectrum of concerns. |
| * They're diverse -- they acknowledge that the future is ultimately unknowable, so the best way to plan for what will really happen is to think about broadly different possibilities. This was, for me, the singular failing of the Pentagon abrupt climate change scenario -- it only told one story. | * They're diverse -- they acknowledge that the future is ultimately unknowable, so the best way to plan for what will really happen is to think about broadly different possibilities. This was, for me, the singular failing of the Pentagon abrupt climate change scenario -- it only told one story. |
| * Finally, they're open -- even readers not directly involved with the issue at hand can start thinking about their own choices and plans as shaped by the scenario narratives. | * Finally, they're open -- even readers not directly involved with the issue at hand can start thinking about their own choices and plans as shaped by the scenario narratives. |
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| | </blockquote> |
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| http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000433.html | http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000433.html |
| From: [[http://www.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3310&ei=R9n9UqixEIrmkAXymIDoBA&usg=AFQjCNGaA2QdNlSF3_6roa_YCSR0ez29SA&sig2=GEyGJ_CH5qo-INVR4kz0XQ&bvm=bv.61190604,d.dGI|Futures Research Methodology: Scenarios]] | From: [[http://www.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3310&ei=R9n9UqixEIrmkAXymIDoBA&usg=AFQjCNGaA2QdNlSF3_6roa_YCSR0ez29SA&sig2=GEyGJ_CH5qo-INVR4kz0XQ&bvm=bv.61190604,d.dGI|Futures Research Methodology: Scenarios]] |
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| ==== Steps to developing scenarios ==== | |
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| {{ :resilients:scenario-process-diagram.png?1000 |Visual translation of "Steps to developing scenarios" by P. Schwartz}} | |
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| Diagram prepared with [[http://vue.tufts.edu | VUE]] | |
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| ==== References and further reading ==== | ==== References and further reading ==== |
| * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/ | * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/ |
| * Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: http://www.slideshare.net/adgo/scenario-building-workshop-how-to-build-and-use-scenarios | * Slideshow on building scenarios by futuresavvy.com: http://www.slideshare.net/adgo/scenario-building-workshop-how-to-build-and-use-scenarios |
| * [[taleb_s_rules]] | * [[taleb_s_rules|Taleb's Rules]] |
| * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz | * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz |
| * http://www.driversofchange.com/ | * http://www.driversofchange.com/ |
alkan