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| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-03-04 06:27] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2023-05-08 11:38] (current) – nik |
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| ===== Scenario Methods ===== | ===== Scenario Methods ===== |
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| This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different methods and techniques that can be used in scenario building, particularly focusing on the ones that might be useful for Future Fabulators. There are many academic papers and consultants' websites describing a myriad of approaches to "how to build scenarios". Though possibly oversimplifying the issue, we could say that for Future Fabulators the most important difference between methods is whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most interesting work is that of 'backcasting' or 'retrocasting' as we prefer to call it (see chapter below). With exploratory scenarios much time is spent on identifying constants and variables of a situation, that make up the scenarios (as characters, events, plot-lines...). These scenario components are derived from the key factors in the wider context of an issue (e.g. from the internal and external envrionment, past and present conditions), as well as the 'drivers of change' (micro and macro forces that influence change in a community, organisation or system). Most scenario methods revolve around approximately the same phases: (1) delineating the space/issue/question (2) identifying elements of the scenario (factors, drivers, trends, measures, actors, events...) 3) selecting a reasonable amount of elements and creating a 'scenario logic' 4) combining (forecasting, projecting, extrapolating, visioning...) the elements into (different) scenarios and 5) using scenarios to (re)design decisions, strategies and actions in the present. Or, as Chris Stewart proposes: Input, Analysis, Interpretation and Application: | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different methods and techniques that can be used in scenario building, particularly focusing on the ones that might be useful for Future Fabulators. There are many academic papers and consultants' websites describing a myriad of approaches to "how to build scenarios". Though possibly oversimplifying the issue, we could say that for Future Fabulators the most important difference between methods is whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most interesting work is that of 'backcasting' or 'retrocasting' as we prefer to call it (see chapter below). With exploratory scenarios much time is spent on identifying constants and variables of a situation, that make up the scenarios (as characters, events, plot-lines...). These scenario components are derived from the key factors in the wider context of an issue (e.g. from the internal and external envrionment, past and present conditions), as well as the 'drivers of change' (micro and macro forces that influence change in a community, organisation or system). |
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| | An overview of [[https://apf.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015-SE-Compass-MethodsAnthology.pdf|scenario methods for strategy]] |
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| | Most scenario methods revolve around approximately similar phases: |
| | * 1) delineating the space/issue/question |
| | * 2) identifying elements of the scenario (factors, drivers, trends, measures, actors, events...) |
| | * 3) selecting a reasonable amount of elements and creating a 'scenario logic' |
| | * 4) combining (forecasting, projecting, extrapolating, visioning...) the elements into (different) scenarios and |
| | * 5) using scenarios to (re)design decisions, strategies and actions in the present. |
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| | Or, as Chris Stewart proposes: Input, Analysis, Interpretation and Application |
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| {{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-03-03_at_16.43.05.png?direct|}} | {{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-03-03_at_16.43.05.png?direct|}} |
| Figure from [[Integral Scenario Development]] by Chris C Steward | Figure from [[Integral Scenario Development]] by Chris C Steward |
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| There are many possible answers to the question "how to build scenarios". We won't attempt to collect them all on this page. As a filter in our research we decided to look at approaches that can help us move from forecasting to embodiment, from story to experience. In Future Fabulators we are primarily focused on creating (immersive) situations where possible futures / parallel histories or presents can be physically experienced (and then reflecting on how this experience can affect our present behaviours). Therefore for FFab it isn't extremely important to have the most accurate representation of past, present and possible futures. We are more curious to uncover conscious and unconscious assumptions that the participants might have about their lives and environments and seeing how these assumptions shape and distort their images of the future. The scenario process uses these assumptions as raw materials in creating storyworlds. During the scenario process our awareness of assumptions grows through non-judgmental observation and several waves of analysis and synthesis. On this page we review existing scenario building methods to have a wide palette of methods that we can apply and customise for different groups with whom we co-create scenarios. | There are many possible answers to the question "how to build scenarios". We won't attempt to collect them all on this page. As a filter in our research we decided to look at approaches that can help us move from forecasting to embodiment, from story to experience. In Future Fabulators we are primarily focused on creating (immersive) situations where possible futures / parallel histories or presents can be physically experienced (and then reflecting on how this experience can affect our present behaviours). Therefore for FFab it isn't extremely important to have the most accurate representation of past, present and possible futures. We are more curious to uncover conscious and unconscious assumptions that the participants might have about their lives and environments and seeing how these assumptions shape and distort their images of the future. The scenario process uses these assumptions as raw materials in creating storyworlds. During the scenario process our awareness of assumptions grows through non-judgmental observation and several waves of analysis and synthesis. On this page we review existing scenario building methods to make available a wide palette of methods to apply and customise for different groups with whom we co-create scenarios. |
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| The most rewarding moment in scenario building (in our experience) is when participants begin to recognise different scenarios as extreme versions or caricatures of their present, as if they have acquired a mysterious search-light, that can be used to illuminate different parts of an otherwise murky, entangled situation. By using appropriate scenario methods, we hope to amplify these moments of clarity that spark imagination and a pro-active engagement with the futures. We're also interested how to make the whole process more fluid, creative and mindful (of self, others and the environment). | The most rewarding moment in scenario building (in our experience) is when participants begin to recognise different scenarios as extreme versions or caricatures of their present, as if they have acquired a mysterious search-light, that can be used to illuminate different parts of an otherwise murky, entangled situation. By using appropriate scenario methods, we hope to amplify these moments of clarity that spark imagination and a pro-active engagement with the futures. We're also interested how to make the whole process more fluid, creative and mindful (of self, others and the environment). |
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| <blockquote>Methodology, though, is about more than the tools used: it involves careful attention to the stance taken by the practitioner in the use of tools to enact knowledge and understanding." -Floyd, Burns and Ramos</blockquote> | <blockquote>Methodology, though, is about more than the tools used: it involves careful attention to the stance taken by the practitioner in the use of tools to enact knowledge and understanding." -Floyd, Burns and Ramos((https://www.zotero.org/groups/future_fabulators/items/itemKey/U7XRUQAW))</blockquote> |
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| ==== Methods, comparisons ==== | ==== Methods, comparisons ==== |
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| A simple description of a scenario building process can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. Interesting [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, can be used as a checklist of what NOT to do in scenario building. | A simple description of a scenario building process can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. An counter-prespective can be found in [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, which provides a checklist of what NOT to do when creating scenarios. |
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| <blockquote>The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. (...) Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations." | <blockquote>The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. (...) Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations." |
| * cluster into themes | * cluster into themes |
| * after reaching the bottom layer, pick a different myth/narrative and create a scenario by moving up the other layers, up to the new events and behaviours in 'litany' | * after reaching the bottom layer, pick a different myth/narrative and create a scenario by moving up the other layers, up to the new events and behaviours in 'litany' |
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| | Image Credit: [[http://thinkingfutures.net|Thinking Futures]] |
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| === The Manoa Approach === | === The Manoa Approach === |
| [5] develop a summary metaphor or title \\ | [5] develop a summary metaphor or title \\ |
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| <html><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png"><img src="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png" width="400"></a></html> <html><a href="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"><img src="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"></a></html> | <html><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png"><img src="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/3a/9b/40/3a9b40a34e245adbfac3d91b030afac4.jpg" width="400"></a></html> <html><a href="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"><img src="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"></a></html> |
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| === Four Generic Futures === | === Four Generic Futures === |
| * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_impact_analysis|Cross Impact Analysis]] | * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_impact_analysis|Cross Impact Analysis]] |
| * [[http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3302&ei=Hm0VU-ODBsSikQWQzICwDw&usg=AFQjCNGIGowNnzsRvhMCmohNKF986pAUGA&sig2=bz9QES3qcTR6pZXu4Lj6Mw&bvm=bv.62286460,d.dGI|Trend Impact Analysis]] (quantitative) | * [[http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3302&ei=Hm0VU-ODBsSikQWQzICwDw&usg=AFQjCNGIGowNnzsRvhMCmohNKF986pAUGA&sig2=bz9QES3qcTR6pZXu4Lj6Mw&bvm=bv.62286460,d.dGI|Trend Impact Analysis]] (quantitative) |
| * [[morphological analysis]] [[field anomaly relaxation]] | * [[morphological analysis]] and [[field anomaly relaxation]] |
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| * // should we make our own STEEP (or similar) cards to avoid the 'business bias'?// probably, if we have the time, perhaps something related to causal layered analysis or [[integral scenario development]] focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...). | * // should we make our own STEEP (or similar) cards to avoid the 'business bias'?// probably, if we have the time, perhaps something related to causal layered analysis or [[integral scenario development]] focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...). |
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| <blockquote> | <blockquote> |
| * __Two axes method__: Scenarios generated using the ‘two axes’ process are illustrative rather than predictive; they tend to be high-level (although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added). They are particularly suited to testing medium to long-term policy direction, by ensuring that it is robust in a range of environments. Scenarios developed using this method tend to look out 10-20 years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] | * __Two axes method__: Scenarios generated using the ‘two axes’ process are illustrative rather than predictive; they tend to be high-level (although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added). They are particularly suited to testing medium to long-term policy direction, by ensuring that it is robust in a range of environments. Scenarios developed using this method tend to look out 10-20 years. |
| * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] | * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years. |
| * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers. </blockquote> | * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers. |
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| | </blockquote> |
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| From: [[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] | From: [[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]] |
| From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/14-2/A01.pdf|Alternative Futures at The Manoa School]] by Jim Dator | From [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/14-2/A01.pdf|Alternative Futures at The Manoa School]] by Jim Dator |
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| Another suggestion (from [[integral scenario development]] by Christ C Stewart: | |
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| * Apply 6 root questions (relating to factors and actors) and the AQAL framework (four quadrants by Wilber) to deepen the scenario stories | Other possibilities: |
| | An option from [[integral scenario development]] by Christ C Stewart is to Apply 6 root questions (relating to factors and actors) and the AQAL framework (four quadrants by Wilber) to deepen the scenario stories. Also, the layers from Causal Layered Analysis can be used as probes in fleshing out scenarios. Finally (something we haven't explored yet): the elements of the [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/summary-of-verge-ethnographic-futures-framework-devised-by-richard-lum-and-michele-bowman|Ethnographic Futures Framework]] (Bowman & Schultz, 2005) might be useful. |
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| Also, the layers from Causal Layered Analysis or the elements of the [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/summary-of-verge-ethnographic-futures-framework-devised-by-richard-lum-and-michele-bowman|Ethnographic Futures Framework]] (Bowman & Schultz, 2005) might be useful. | |
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| <html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html> | <html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html> |
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| | Theory of change model is essentially backcasting for specific goals: http://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/ |
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| //what are important things to focus on?// | //what are important things to focus on?// |
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| * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? |
| | * [[http://ideodesign.com.au/images/uploads/news/pdfs/FultonSuriBuchenau-Experience_PrototypingACM_8-00.pdf|experience prototyping]] |
| * [[http://ideodesign.com.au/images/uploads/news/pdfs/FultonSuriBuchenau-Experience_PrototypingACM_8-00.pdf|experience prototyping]] | * rapid prototyping, fabbing |
| * rapid prototyping, fabbing | * paper, scissors and tape |
| * ... | * ... |
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| More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] [[design fiction]], [[guerilla futures]] and [[experiential futures]] | More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] [[design fiction]], [[guerrilla futures]] and [[experiential futures]] |
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| ==== Prehearsals ==== | ==== Prehearsals ==== |
maja