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| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-05-19 14:27] – [Scenario Methods] nik | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2023-05-08 11:38] (current) – nik |
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| This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different methods and techniques that can be used in scenario building, particularly focusing on the ones that might be useful for Future Fabulators. There are many academic papers and consultants' websites describing a myriad of approaches to "how to build scenarios". Though possibly oversimplifying the issue, we could say that for Future Fabulators the most important difference between methods is whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most interesting work is that of 'backcasting' or 'retrocasting' as we prefer to call it (see chapter below). With exploratory scenarios much time is spent on identifying constants and variables of a situation, that make up the scenarios (as characters, events, plot-lines...). These scenario components are derived from the key factors in the wider context of an issue (e.g. from the internal and external envrionment, past and present conditions), as well as the 'drivers of change' (micro and macro forces that influence change in a community, organisation or system). | This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different methods and techniques that can be used in scenario building, particularly focusing on the ones that might be useful for Future Fabulators. There are many academic papers and consultants' websites describing a myriad of approaches to "how to build scenarios". Though possibly oversimplifying the issue, we could say that for Future Fabulators the most important difference between methods is whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most interesting work is that of 'backcasting' or 'retrocasting' as we prefer to call it (see chapter below). With exploratory scenarios much time is spent on identifying constants and variables of a situation, that make up the scenarios (as characters, events, plot-lines...). These scenario components are derived from the key factors in the wider context of an issue (e.g. from the internal and external envrionment, past and present conditions), as well as the 'drivers of change' (micro and macro forces that influence change in a community, organisation or system). |
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| Most scenario methods revolve around approximately similar phases: (1) delineating the space/issue/question (2) identifying elements of the scenario (factors, drivers, trends, measures, actors, events...) 3) selecting a reasonable amount of elements and creating a 'scenario logic' 4) combining (forecasting, projecting, extrapolating, visioning...) the elements into (different) scenarios and 5) using scenarios to (re)design decisions, strategies and actions in the present. Or, as Chris Stewart proposes: Input, Analysis, Interpretation and Application: | An overview of [[https://apf.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015-SE-Compass-MethodsAnthology.pdf|scenario methods for strategy]] |
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| | Most scenario methods revolve around approximately similar phases: |
| | * 1) delineating the space/issue/question |
| | * 2) identifying elements of the scenario (factors, drivers, trends, measures, actors, events...) |
| | * 3) selecting a reasonable amount of elements and creating a 'scenario logic' |
| | * 4) combining (forecasting, projecting, extrapolating, visioning...) the elements into (different) scenarios and |
| | * 5) using scenarios to (re)design decisions, strategies and actions in the present. |
| | |
| | Or, as Chris Stewart proposes: Input, Analysis, Interpretation and Application |
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| {{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-03-03_at_16.43.05.png?direct|}} | {{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-03-03_at_16.43.05.png?direct|}} |
| ==== Methods, comparisons ==== | ==== Methods, comparisons ==== |
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| A simple description of a scenario building process can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. Interesting [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, can be used as a checklist of what NOT to do in scenario building. | A simple description of a scenario building process can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. An counter-prespective can be found in [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, which provides a checklist of what NOT to do when creating scenarios. |
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| <blockquote>The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. (...) Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations." | <blockquote>The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. (...) Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations." |
| * cluster into themes | * cluster into themes |
| * after reaching the bottom layer, pick a different myth/narrative and create a scenario by moving up the other layers, up to the new events and behaviours in 'litany' | * after reaching the bottom layer, pick a different myth/narrative and create a scenario by moving up the other layers, up to the new events and behaviours in 'litany' |
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| | Image Credit: [[http://thinkingfutures.net|Thinking Futures]] |
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| === The Manoa Approach === | === The Manoa Approach === |
| [5] develop a summary metaphor or title \\ | [5] develop a summary metaphor or title \\ |
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| <html><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png"><img src="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png" width="400"></a></html> <html><a href="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"><img src="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"></a></html> | <html><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png"><img src="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/3a/9b/40/3a9b40a34e245adbfac3d91b030afac4.jpg" width="400"></a></html> <html><a href="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"><img src="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"></a></html> |
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| === Four Generic Futures === | === Four Generic Futures === |
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| <html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html> | <html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html> |
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| | Theory of change model is essentially backcasting for specific goals: http://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/ |
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| //what are important things to focus on?// | //what are important things to focus on?// |
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| * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? |
| | * [[http://ideodesign.com.au/images/uploads/news/pdfs/FultonSuriBuchenau-Experience_PrototypingACM_8-00.pdf|experience prototyping]] |
| * [[http://ideodesign.com.au/images/uploads/news/pdfs/FultonSuriBuchenau-Experience_PrototypingACM_8-00.pdf|experience prototyping]] | * rapid prototyping, fabbing |
| * rapid prototyping, fabbing | * paper, scissors and tape |
| * ... | * ... |
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nik