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| resilients:foreground_research [2013-02-11 06:59] – Links to resilients:future_preparedness_overview changed to resilients:future_preparedness nik | resilients:future_preparedness_notes [2014-11-04 16:13] – [Disaster studies] maja |
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| ==== Future preparedness in practice ==== | ==== Future preparedness Scrapbook ==== |
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| Historic, recent and contemporary manifestations of [[future_preparedness]]; case studies; disaster drills; mental exercises etc. | Historic, recent and contemporary manifestations of [[future_preparedness]] and related fields. |
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| ==== NNNI ==== | |
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| <blockquote>Nista Nas Ne smije Iznenaditi: Živimo kao da će vječno biti mir, a pripremajmo se kao da će sutra rat | ==== A few guidelines ==== |
| -- Tito</blockquote> | |
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| * [[:NNNI|Nista Nas Ne smije Iznenaditi]] 'Nothing can surprise us' - cit /country wide catastrophe exercises organised by ONO i DSZ (Opstenarodna odbrana i drustvena samozastita, translation: 'Nation wide defence and social self protection committee') for the military, police, health system, but also civilians (including children) in former Yugoslavia. | * Notes from Joi Ito's Resiliency, Risk, and a [[a_good_compass|Good Compass]]: Tools for the Coming Chaos |
| | * [[taleb_s_rules|Taleb's Rules]]: A number of guidelines to create systems which are less fragile during exposure to black swan events (aka taleb robustness) |
| | * [[http://www.holmgren.com.au/DLFiles/PDFs/Essence_of_PC_eBook.pdf|Permaculture Design Principles]] in pdf |
| | * [[:/future_fabulators/vuca|VUCA]] or volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of general conditions and situations. |
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| * Historic document from 1978: preparing for NNNi by a university: http://orion.fesb.hr/DotNetNuke/Portals/0/docs/Listovi/NNNI_78_ratno_izdanje/FESB_NNNI_78.pdf | |
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| * The interesting thing about NNNI was that participants often had nothing in common: small entrepreneurs, CEOs, smugglers, drunks, and others whom we wouldn't see except for the day of the exercise... - Ono sto je u vjezbama Nista nas ne smije iznenaditi bilo zanimljivo jest cinjenica da su sudjelovali ljudi iz nasih mjesnih zajednica koji inace nisu imali nista zajednicko: sitni privatnici, direktori preduzeca, sverceri, pijanci, besposlicari i oni koje nikad ne bismo vidjali osim na dan vjezbe. Svih drugih dana u godini takvi su ostajali zatvoreni izmedju svoja cetiri zida ili su se bavili nekim poslovima o kojima do danas nista nismo saznali. | ==== Arts & Disaster Relief ==== |
| * http://www.bhdani.com/arhiva/115/citanka15.htm | |
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| See also: http://lib.fo.am/nnni | * [[http://www.burnerswithoutborders.org/|Burners without borders]]: "BWB promotes activities around the globe that support a community's inherent capacity to thrive by encouraging innovative approaches to disaster relief and grassroots initiatives that make a positive impact. (...) Following the 2005 Burning Man event, several participants headed south into the Hurricane Katrina disaster area to help people rebuild their devastated communities. What does this look like? The important thing is to create collaborations and bring as much creativity and fun to the project as possible." |
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| ==== Eucatastrophe ==== | * [[http://architectureforhumanity.org/|Architecture for Humanity]]: "We are a leader in creating responses to disaster reconstruction that go beyond the “one and done” projects that leave communities vulnerable to future crises. Instead, we focus on creating long-term solutions in partnership with the affected communities." |
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| Eucatastrophe is a term coined by J. R. R. Tolkien which refers to the sudden turn of events at the end of a story which ensure that the protagonist does not meet some terrible, impending, and very plausible doom. | |
| http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eucatastrophe | |
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| The consolation of fairy-stories, the joy of the happy ending: or more correctly of the good catastrophe, the sudden joyous “turn” (for there is no true end to any fairy-tale): this joy, which is one of the things which fairy-stories can produce supremely well, is not essentially 'escapist', nor 'fugitive'. In its fairy-tale—or otherworld—setting, it is a sudden and miraculous grace... | |
| http://tolkiengateway.net/wiki/Eucatastrophe | |
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| | ==== NNNI ==== |
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| ==== Meditative exercises ==== | <blockquote>Nista Nas Ne smije Iznenaditi: Živimo kao da će vječno biti mir, a pripremajmo se kao da će sutra rat. //(Transl. Live as if the peace is eternal, prepare as if the war will start tomorrow)// |
| | -- Josip Broz Tito</blockquote> |
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| Buddhist philosphy and lifestyle have - over the centuries - developed a gentle yet resilient way of approaching uncertainty, discomfort and calamity, as well as exhaltation, happiness and excitement. The basic idea is that we have to be able to live in the present moment, no matter what it brings. It means dropping our expectations, hopes and wishes and be open to what life brings about - whether positive, negative or neutral. We should be able to face whatever situation with compassion and equanimity - qualities that enable us to observe, think and act clearly and effectively, without emotional turmoil. Here are a few buddhist (and related) teachings on how to face uncertainty without fear or aggression: | * [[::nnni|Nista Nas Ne smije Iznenaditi]] 'Nothing can surprise us' - cit /country wide catastrophe exercises organised by ONO i DSZ (Opstenarodna odbrana i drustvena samozastita, translation: 'Nation wide defence and social self protection committee') for the military, police, health system, but also civilians (including children) in former Yugoslavia. |
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| * Pema Chödrön: A teaching on becoming more comfortable with uncertainty in ourselves and the world, focusing on tonglen en metta meditation practices [[comfortable_with_uncertainty]] | * Historic document from 1978: preparing for NNNi by a university: http://orion.fesb.hr/DotNetNuke/Portals/0/docs/Listovi/NNNI_78_ratno_izdanje/FESB_NNNI_78.pdf |
| * Chögyam Trungpa: A small booklet on the qualities and practices of a 'Shambala warrior' - a person able to face, know and smile at fear, including meditative exercises such as the warrior breath: http://lib.fo.am/smile_at_fear | |
| * Thich Nhat Hanh: A short teaching on the art of flower arranging, or metaphorically the art of creating order and beauty in the chaotic environment around you. http://lib.fo.am/flower_arranging | |
| * Lü Tung-Pin: The classic Taoist teaching on 'turning the light around' and being able to observe the chaotic thoughts and emotions, while resting in awareness: http://lib.fo.am/golden_flower | |
| * Jon Kabat-Zinn: Notes from the audiobook Coming to Our Senses by the foremost mindfulness teacher and psychiatrist Kabat-Zinn, about the value of mindfulness in healing ourselves and the world: http://lib.fo.am/coming_to_our_senses | |
| * Leonard Koren: Wabi-Sabi could be seen as a 'resilient aesthetics' - embracing change and decay as aesthetic qualities: http://lib.fo.am/wabi_sabi | |
| * [[Naikan]]: An introspective technique in which the practitioner looks at his/her life through relationships with people. | |
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| ==== Survivalist green ==== | * The interesting thing about NNNI was that participants often had nothing in common: small entrepreneurs, CEOs, smugglers, drunks, and others whom we wouldn't see except for the day of the exercise... - Ono sto je u vjezbama Nista nas ne smije iznenaditi bilo zanimljivo jest cinjenica da su sudjelovali ljudi iz nasih mjesnih zajednica koji inace nisu imali nista zajednicko: sitni privatnici, direktori preduzeca, sverceri, pijanci, besposlicari i oni koje nikad ne bismo vidjali osim na dan vjezbe. Svih drugih dana u godini takvi su ostajali zatvoreni izmedju svoja cetiri zida ili su se bavili nekim poslovima o kojima do danas nista nismo saznali. |
| | * http://www.bhdani.com/arhiva/115/citanka15.htm |
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| The most prominent face of Survivalist Green is that of the city dweller; the second is of the suburban or exurban dweller. (Covers everything from apartments along the rail line to Mega-Mansions in the exurb zone.) | See also: http://lib.fo.am/nnni |
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| The third face of SG extends to the house trailer next to Mom & Dad's farmstead and on to the Off Griders and Climate Doom Cultists. | ==== Disaster studies ==== |
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| A boom in kitchen gardening and, community gardening/husbandry - in urban areas, look for extensive membership in community supported agriculture. | * [[http://theintelhub.com/2012/10/31/military-holds-mock-zombie-apocalypse-drill-on-halloween-in-populated-area/|Zombie Apocalypse]] for the US Military organised by Halo Corp. |
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| A dramatic fall off in per-capital solid waste generation rates: as in developing nations now, an empty container of any sort is caught on the first bounce and put to good use. Recycle/re-use rates increase very dramatically across all three facets of society. | <blockquote>"This is a very real exercise, this is not some type of big costume party," said Brad Barker, president of Halo Corp, a security firm hosting the Oct. 31 training demonstration during the summit at a 44-acre Paradise Point Resort island on a San Diego bay. "Everything that will be simulated at this event has already happened, it just hasn't happened all at once on the same night. But the training is very real, it just happens to be the bad guys we're having a little fun with."</blockquote> |
| | More in [[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/29/zombie-apocalypse-trainining-military-halo-corp-_n_2036996.html| this article ]] from Huffington Post |
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| Hunting and fishing will experience a major resurgence. Appointment to a State fish and game management commission is a coveted political opportunity. | * [[http://futuryst.blogspot.be/2007/05/future-shock-hits-san-francisco.html|Guerilla Futures by the Red Cross]] |
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| Existing suburban tract-home developments filled with 5+ bedroom mansions will be converted to multiplex condominiums and mixed use communities with combined heat and power (CHP) units to provide electricity and heat to all residents. | <blockquote>The last statistics out of the USGS predict that there is a 62 percent chance that a catastrophic earthquake will hit the Bay Area in the next 30 years—leaving an estimated 3,400 dead, 63,000 seriously injured, and over 400,000 people homeless. These statistics and the staggering realization that only a small percentage of Bay Area residents are actually prepared for an emergency prompted the ARCBA to focus on an even edgier campaign that would shock, force people to think, and then take action to get prepared.</blockquote> |
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| Single family homes without thermal solar panels, as a minimum icon of energy independence, will be thought of as undesirable - out of fashion. A "green'er upper." | |
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| Condominiums located in old industrial areas near sources of water power will be retro-converted into industrial uses, leading to social conflicts over zoning. | --- |
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| Acoustic music, with a chamber component, experience a resurgence in popularity. | * [[http://www.bosfib.be/home.php|BOS/FIB]] (Brusselse Onafhankelijke Strijdkrachten/ Forces Indépendantes Bruxelloises) creating photographic, fictional war situations if Belgium would engage in a civil war. They proclaim to be ready and defend the Brusseleer and Brussels as an independent area with dutch-speaking and french-speaking multicultural ethnicities. |
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| Bike and walking trail networks everywhere, of course. | |
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| Obesity rates in young people will drop dramatically. | |
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| Railroad stations in metro areas will be re-transitioned to urban market distribution centers - as the were in the early 20th Century. | ==== Eucatastrophe ==== |
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| Individual non-business overseas travel becomes rare - and typically is constrained to high school or university experience. | Eucatastrophe is a term coined by J. R. R. Tolkien which refers to the sudden turn of events at the end of a story which ensure that the protagonist does not meet some terrible, impending, and very plausible doom. |
| | http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eucatastrophe |
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| Business travel shrinks to that which is offset and, even then, much more of a rarity. | <blockquote>The consolation of fairy-stories, the joy of the happy ending: or more correctly of the good catastrophe, the sudden joyous “turn” (for there is no true end to any fairy-tale): this joy, which is one of the things which fairy-stories can produce supremely well, is not essentially 'escapist', nor 'fugitive'. In its fairy-tale—or otherworld—setting, it is a sudden and miraculous grace...</blockquote> |
| | http://tolkiengateway.net/wiki/Eucatastrophe |
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| Supply chains for raw materials shrink dramatically. A much higher proportion of raw materials come from recycling or local extracted raw materials. As a result, consumer goods become less commoditized, designs more varied. | |
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| Self sufficiency and hard work replace workouts. | ==== Fragility and Anti Fragility ==== |
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| We could go on...and on. But first we must ask. Does this sound so bad? | <blockquote>If we take a step back and more generally consider the issue of partitioned versus connected systems, partitioned systems are more stable, and connected systems are both more vulnerable and have more opportunities for collective action. Vulnerability (fragility) is connectivity without responsiveness. Responsiveness enables connectivity to lead to opportunity. If collective action can be employed to address threats, or to take advantage of opportunities, then the vulnerability can be mitigated and outweighed by the benefits. This is the basic relationship between the idea of sensitivity as we described it and your concept of [[:fragility_and_antifragility|antifragility]]. –Yaneer Bar-Yam</blockquote> |
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| Others have written well about overcoming the un-named, prospectively much darker outcome. | |
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| http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/02/survivalist_gre_1.php | ==== Meditative exercises ==== |
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| | Buddhist philosphy and lifestyle have - over the centuries - developed a gentle yet resilient way of approaching uncertainty, discomfort and calamity, as well as exhaltation, happiness and excitement. The basic idea is that we have to be able to live in the present moment, no matter what it brings. It means dropping our expectations, hopes and wishes and be open to what life brings about - whether positive, negative or neutral. We should be able to face whatever situation with compassion and equanimity - qualities that enable us to observe, think and act clearly and effectively, without emotional turmoil. Here are a few buddhist (and related) teachings on how to face uncertainty without fear or aggression: |
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| imagining the future - http://www.worldchanging.com/archives//006811.html | * Pema Chödrön: A teaching on becoming more comfortable with uncertainty in ourselves and the world, focusing on tonglen en metta meditation practices [[comfortable_with_uncertainty]] |
| | * Chögyam Trungpa: A small booklet on the qualities and practices of a 'Shambala warrior' - a person able to face, know and smile at fear, including meditative exercises such as the warrior breath: http://lib.fo.am/smile_at_fear |
| | * Thich Nhat Hanh: A short teaching on the art of flower arranging, or metaphorically the art of creating order and beauty in the chaotic environment around you. http://lib.fo.am/flower_arranging |
| | * Lü Tung-Pin: The classic Taoist teaching on 'turning the light around' and being able to observe the chaotic thoughts and emotions, while resting in awareness: http://lib.fo.am/golden_flower |
| | * Jon Kabat-Zinn: Notes from the audiobook Coming to Our Senses by the foremost mindfulness teacher and psychiatrist Kabat-Zinn, about the value of mindfulness in healing ourselves and the world: http://lib.fo.am/coming_to_our_senses |
| | * Leonard Koren: Wabi-Sabi could be seen as a 'resilient aesthetics' - embracing change and decay as aesthetic qualities: http://lib.fo.am/wabi_sabi |
| | * [[naikan]]: An introspective technique in which the practitioner looks at his/her life through relationships with people. |
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| | ==== Imagining the Future ==== |
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| ==== future making ==== | |
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| * film & storytelling | [[survivalist_green|Survivalist Green]]: notes about how surviving doesn't have to be so bad |
| * design and prototyping (fabbing) | |
| * games – open source world building tools | "The future is a process, not a theme park."- Bruce Sterling quoted from: http://www.worldchanging.com/archives//006811.html |
| * Scenaric Thinking, Framing and Visualizations – open source scenario planning tools, visualisation | |
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| ==== Mapping ==== | ==== Mapping ==== |
| * Smart Places and Spatial Interventions http://www.worldchanging.com/archives//004292.html | |
| | Smart Places and Spatial Interventions http://www.worldchanging.com/archives//004292.html |
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| ==== Critical Design ==== | ==== Critical Design ==== |
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| Critical Design, takes a critical theory based approach to design. Popularized by Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby through their firm, Dunne & Raby. Critical design uses designed artifacts as an embodied critique or commentary on consumer culture. Both the designed artifact (and subsequent use) and the process of designing such an artifact causes reflection on existing values, mores, and practices in a culture. | <blockquote>Critical Design, takes a critical theory based approach to design. Popularized by Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby through their firm, Dunne & Raby. Critical design uses designed artifacts as an embodied critique or commentary on consumer culture. Both the designed artifact (and subsequent use) and the process of designing such an artifact causes reflection on existing values, mores, and practices in a culture. |
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| A critical design will often challenge its audience's preconceptions and expectations thereby provoking new ways of thinking about the object, its use, and the surrounding environment. Critical Designers generally believe design that provokes, inspires, makes us think, and questions fundamental assumptions can make a valuable contribution to debates about the role technology plays in everyday life. | A critical design will often challenge its audience's preconceptions and expectations thereby provoking new ways of thinking about the object, its use, and the surrounding environment. Critical Designers generally believe design that provokes, inspires, makes us think, and questions fundamental assumptions can make a valuable contribution to debates about the role technology plays in everyday life.</blockquote> |
| http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_design | http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_design |
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| ==== Fiction as forecasting ==== | ==== Fiction as forecasting ==== |
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| Speculative, science, design fiction - they could all be seen as ways of exploring the probable and improbable futures: | Speculative, science, design fiction - ways of exploring the probable and improbable futures: |
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| | <blockquote>Speculative literature is a catch-all term meant to inclusively span the breadth of fantastic literature, encompassing literature ranging from hard science fiction to epic fantasy to ghost stories to horror to folk and fairy tales to slipstream to magical realism to modern myth-making and more.</blockquote> |
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| Speculative literature is a catch-all term meant to inclusively span the breadth of fantastic literature, encompassing literature ranging from hard science fiction to epic fantasy to ghost stories to horror to folk and fairy tales to slipstream to magical realism to modern myth-making and more. | |
| * http://www.speculativeliterature.org/ | * http://www.speculativeliterature.org/ |
| * http://www.squidoo.com/speculativefiction | * http://www.squidoo.com/speculativefiction |
| * http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/09/science-fiction-as-foresight.html | * http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/09/science-fiction-as-foresight.html |
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| | Speculative Design for a [[jesusautobot]] from Theun Karelse |
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| ==== Brussels Autonomous Army ==== | ==== Reading notes on indigenous research ==== |
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| * [[Disaster Studies]] | Notes collected by Cocky Eek: |
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| ==== Notes from TV series The Colony ==== | * I think it's important that the elder didn't just tell them the relationship between the mud and the fish, but took them to a place where they could discover that relationship for themselves. That is what relationality and relation accountability are all about. |
| | * In an indigenous ontology, reality is the relationship that one has with the truth (rather than the truth being something that is 'out there' or external. Reality is not an object, but a process of relationships |
| | * In indigenous research, knowledge is relational. It is not just interpersonal relationships, not just with the research subjects, but its' a relationship with all of creation. It is with the cosmos, the animals, the plants and with the earth that we share this knowledge. |
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| http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/colony/ | |
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| After the euphoria of a catastrophe calms down, the survivors are left exhausted, sore and dirty. It is difficult to accept the new conditions of reality and abandon creature comforts. Being separated from family and friends causes emotional distress. Any reminder of home after a period of separation can cause powerful emotional experiences. They go through a grieving process to accept the loss of former life, but must look forward. A forward-looking attitude can make a difference for survival. What is normal is stripped away, inhibitions drop and you have to guard against complacency. Physical and mental capabilities diminish with exertion, sleep deprivation and malnutrition after 20-30 days. When mind and body near a breaking point, rational thought is severely compromised. One of the most common ways to guard against the influx of emotions is to immerse yourself in work, in a routine. | ==== Notes from TV series The Colony ==== |
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| Water harvesting and filtering is one of the first things to sort out, and can be done easily with available materials. Dehydration can cause fatigue, cramps and nausea. After 4 days organs begin shutting down. | Some insights from an otherwise quite dreadful reality TV series [[The Colony]] about surviving disasters. |
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| The change in diet makes people lose a lot of weight, which results in loss of energy and confusion, lowering of mental capacities – slow degradation of complex thought. People can starve in 30-40 days. Hunting and foraging, as well as food preservation becomes a crucial skill. The colonists construct a smoke house and fuel it with wet woodchips (but the construction catches fire and spoils the food). Root cellar: burrying food to keep it cool. Foraging for plants and eating insects are good options. Hunger makes you forget about basic security. | http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/colony/ |
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| The colonists are worried about security of their home and resources. They need tools (for hunting, construction) and power - generators, fuel. The colonists decide to make gas from animal fat, that they can harvest from found rotting carcases of pigs, then make fuelcells out of car batteries. They make a forge to make metal tools and materials. They make a windmill. They make a fermentation pot to make ethanol out of sugar, yeast and water. | |
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| Maintaining hygene is crucial: washing hands, having showers... The air, water and ground can be spoilt with pollutants that can't be filtered out. | |
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| Vehicles: in order to be able to forage further, or leave if food and water aren't available. | ==== To follow-up ==== |
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| When encountering strangers: a small group rebuilding a life, in a scarcity of information and resources – social structures breaks up and everything becomes equal (for a while at least). When two groups meet, there is an initial period of curiosity, after which suspicion and competition arise. There is an issue of trust, that relies on social skills to avoid unwelcome intrusions and stealing resources, but welcoming beneficial strangers. Introducing new people in a social group causes tension, animosity and internal conflict. Negotiation skills become very valuable (win more friends with honey than vinegar). An invite to meet outsiders should be dealt with caution – running a relay of information. Newcomers cause change in the rhythm of the group. It is difficult to establish trust, but if threats go up, survival takes over. Individual fight or flight instinct is strong, but the survival depends on the whole group staying out of harm's way. | * Future-making in film & storytelling |
| | * Prototyping techniques and personal fabrication (fabbing) |
| | * World building games and open source world building tools |
| | * Scenaric Thinking, framing and visualizations – open source scenario planning tools, info-vis |
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| In times of despair people themselves become a commodity. It is crucial to know your behaviour and if too hotheaded, allow yourself to stay back. In a hostage situation, the plan is most important. No emotions should take over. | |
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| Issues of leadership arise. There is always self-governance in the beginning, without a real leader. However people fall into their niche in frustrations. A single leader is useful: someone to check and oversee, not to give orders – an organiser, someone who can take on and take every member of the group into account. The choice of a leader can be done by a secret ballot. When struggling to survive, any person who can improve a situation becomes a beacon of hope, caution becomes secondary. | |
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| NOTE: these notes were taken watching a few episodes from series 1 and 2. I'm not passing any judgement on the correctness of this information, or the usefulness of the series. I couldn't watch more than a few episodes though, it was too much of a 'reality TV show' with all of its bombastic drama for my taste. | |
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maja