Historic, recent and contemporary manifestations of future_preparedness; case studies; disaster drills; mental exercises etc.

Nista Nas Ne smije Iznenaditi: Živimo kao da će vječno biti mir, a pripremajmo se kao da će sutra rat – Tito

• Nista Nas Ne smije Iznenaditi 'Nothing can surprise us' - cit /country wide catastrophe exercises organised by ONO i DSZ (Opstenarodna odbrana i drustvena samozastita, translation: 'Nation wide defence and social self protection committee') for the military, police, health system, but also civilians (including children) in former Yugoslavia.

• Historic document from 1978: preparing for NNNi by a university: http://orion.fesb.hr/DotNetNuke/Portals/0/docs/Listovi/NNNI_78_ratno_izdanje/FESB_NNNI_78.pdf

• The interesting thing about NNNI was that participants often had nothing in common: small entrepreneurs, CEOs, smugglers, drunks, and others whom we wouldn't see except for the day of the exercise… - Ono sto je u vjezbama Nista nas ne smije iznenaditi bilo zanimljivo jest cinjenica da su sudjelovali ljudi iz nasih mjesnih zajednica koji inace nisu imali nista zajednicko: sitni privatnici, direktori preduzeca, sverceri, pijanci, besposlicari i oni koje nikad ne bismo vidjali osim na dan vjezbe. Svih drugih dana u godini takvi su ostajali zatvoreni izmedju svoja cetiri zida ili su se bavili nekim poslovima o kojima do danas nista nismo saznali.
• http://www.bhdani.com/arhiva/115/citanka15.htm

See also: http://lib.fo.am/nnni

Eucatastrophe is a term coined by J. R. R. Tolkien which refers to the sudden turn of events at the end of a story which ensure that the protagonist does not meet some terrible, impending, and very plausible doom. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eucatastrophe

The consolation of fairy-stories, the joy of the happy ending: or more correctly of the good catastrophe, the sudden joyous “turn” (for there is no true end to any fairy-tale): this joy, which is one of the things which fairy-stories can produce supremely well, is not essentially 'escapist', nor 'fugitive'. In its fairy-tale—or otherworld—setting, it is a sudden and miraculous grace… http://tolkiengateway.net/wiki/Eucatastrophe

Buddhist philosphy and lifestyle have - over the centuries - developed a gentle yet resilient way of approaching uncertainty, discomfort and calamity, as well as exhaltation, happiness and excitement. The basic idea is that we have to be able to live in the present moment, no matter what it brings. It means dropping our expectations, hopes and wishes and be open to what life brings about - whether positive, negative or neutral. We should be able to face whatever situation with compassion and equanimity - qualities that enable us to observe, think and act clearly and effectively, without emotional turmoil. Here are a few buddhist (and related) teachings on how to face uncertainty without fear or aggression:

• Pema Chödrön: A teaching on becoming more comfortable with uncertainty in ourselves and the world, focusing on tonglen en metta meditation practices comfortable_with_uncertainty
• Chögyam Trungpa: A small booklet on the qualities and practices of a 'Shambala warrior' - a person able to face, know and smile at fear, including meditative exercises such as the warrior breath: http://lib.fo.am/smile_at_fear
• Thich Nhat Hanh: A short teaching on the art of flower arranging, or metaphorically the art of creating order and beauty in the chaotic environment around you. http://lib.fo.am/flower_arranging
• Lü Tung-Pin: The classic Taoist teaching on 'turning the light around' and being able to observe the chaotic thoughts and emotions, while resting in awareness: http://lib.fo.am/golden_flower
• Jon Kabat-Zinn: Notes from the audiobook Coming to Our Senses by the foremost mindfulness teacher and psychiatrist Kabat-Zinn, about the value of mindfulness in healing ourselves and the world: http://lib.fo.am/coming_to_our_senses
• Leonard Koren: Wabi-Sabi could be seen as a 'resilient aesthetics' - embracing change and decay as aesthetic qualities: http://lib.fo.am/wabi_sabi
• naikan: An introspective technique in which the practitioner looks at his/her life through relationships with people.

The most prominent face of Survivalist Green is that of the city dweller; the second is of the suburban or exurban dweller. (Covers everything from apartments along the rail line to Mega-Mansions in the exurb zone.)

The third face of SG extends to the house trailer next to Mom & Dad's farmstead and on to the Off Griders and Climate Doom Cultists.

A boom in kitchen gardening and, community gardening/husbandry - in urban areas, look for extensive membership in community supported agriculture.

A dramatic fall off in per-capital solid waste generation rates: as in developing nations now, an empty container of any sort is caught on the first bounce and put to good use. Recycle/re-use rates increase very dramatically across all three facets of society.

Hunting and fishing will experience a major resurgence. Appointment to a State fish and game management commission is a coveted political opportunity.

Existing suburban tract-home developments filled with 5+ bedroom mansions will be converted to multiplex condominiums and mixed use communities with combined heat and power (CHP) units to provide electricity and heat to all residents.

Single family homes without thermal solar panels, as a minimum icon of energy independence, will be thought of as undesirable - out of fashion. A “green'er upper.”

Condominiums located in old industrial areas near sources of water power will be retro-converted into industrial uses, leading to social conflicts over zoning.

Acoustic music, with a chamber component, experience a resurgence in popularity.

Bike and walking trail networks everywhere, of course.

Obesity rates in young people will drop dramatically.

Railroad stations in metro areas will be re-transitioned to urban market distribution centers - as the were in the early 20th Century.

Individual non-business overseas travel becomes rare - and typically is constrained to high school or university experience.

Business travel shrinks to that which is offset and, even then, much more of a rarity.

Supply chains for raw materials shrink dramatically. A much higher proportion of raw materials come from recycling or local extracted raw materials. As a result, consumer goods become less commoditized, designs more varied.

Self sufficiency and hard work replace workouts.

We could go on…and on. But first we must ask. Does this sound so bad?

Others have written well about overcoming the un-named, prospectively much darker outcome.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/02/survivalist_gre_1.php

imagining the future - http://www.worldchanging.com/archives//006811.html

• film & storytelling
• design and prototyping (fabbing)
• games – open source world building tools
• Scenaric Thinking, Framing and Visualizations – open source scenario planning tools, visualisation

• Smart Places and Spatial Interventions http://www.worldchanging.com/archives//004292.html

Critical Design, takes a critical theory based approach to design. Popularized by Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby through their firm, Dunne & Raby. Critical design uses designed artifacts as an embodied critique or commentary on consumer culture. Both the designed artifact (and subsequent use) and the process of designing such an artifact causes reflection on existing values, mores, and practices in a culture.

A critical design will often challenge its audience's preconceptions and expectations thereby provoking new ways of thinking about the object, its use, and the surrounding environment. Critical Designers generally believe design that provokes, inspires, makes us think, and questions fundamental assumptions can make a valuable contribution to debates about the role technology plays in everyday life. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_design

Speculative, science, design fiction - they could all be seen as ways of exploring the probable and improbable futures:

Speculative literature is a catch-all term meant to inclusively span the breadth of fantastic literature, encompassing literature ranging from hard science fiction to epic fantasy to ghost stories to horror to folk and fairy tales to slipstream to magical realism to modern myth-making and more.

• http://www.speculativeliterature.org/
• http://www.squidoo.com/speculativefiction
• http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/09/science-fiction-as-foresight.html

• disaster_studies

http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/colony/

After the euphoria of a catastrophe calms down, the survivors are left exhausted, sore and dirty. It is difficult to accept the new conditions of reality and abandon creature comforts. Being separated from family and friends causes emotional distress. Any reminder of home after a period of separation can cause powerful emotional experiences. They go through a grieving process to accept the loss of former life, but must look forward. A forward-looking attitude can make a difference for survival. What is normal is stripped away, inhibitions drop and you have to guard against complacency. Physical and mental capabilities diminish with exertion, sleep deprivation and malnutrition after 20-30 days. When mind and body near a breaking point, rational thought is severely compromised. One of the most common ways to guard against the influx of emotions is to immerse yourself in work, in a routine.

Water harvesting and filtering is one of the first things to sort out, and can be done easily with available materials. Dehydration can cause fatigue, cramps and nausea. After 4 days organs begin shutting down.

The change in diet makes people lose a lot of weight, which results in loss of energy and confusion, lowering of mental capacities – slow degradation of complex thought. People can starve in 30-40 days. Hunting and foraging, as well as food preservation becomes a crucial skill. The colonists construct a smoke house and fuel it with wet woodchips (but the construction catches fire and spoils the food). Root cellar: burrying food to keep it cool. Foraging for plants and eating insects are good options. Hunger makes you forget about basic security.

The colonists are worried about security of their home and resources. They need tools (for hunting, construction) and power - generators, fuel. The colonists decide to make gas from animal fat, that they can harvest from found rotting carcases of pigs, then make fuelcells out of car batteries. They make a forge to make metal tools and materials. They make a windmill. They make a fermentation pot to make ethanol out of sugar, yeast and water.

Maintaining hygene is crucial: washing hands, having showers… The air, water and ground can be spoilt with pollutants that can't be filtered out.

Vehicles: in order to be able to forage further, or leave if food and water aren't available.

When encountering strangers: a small group rebuilding a life, in a scarcity of information and resources – social structures breaks up and everything becomes equal (for a while at least). When two groups meet, there is an initial period of curiosity, after which suspicion and competition arise. There is an issue of trust, that relies on social skills to avoid unwelcome intrusions and stealing resources, but welcoming beneficial strangers. Introducing new people in a social group causes tension, animosity and internal conflict. Negotiation skills become very valuable (win more friends with honey than vinegar). An invite to meet outsiders should be dealt with caution – running a relay of information. Newcomers cause change in the rhythm of the group. It is difficult to establish trust, but if threats go up, survival takes over. Individual fight or flight instinct is strong, but the survival depends on the whole group staying out of harm's way.

In times of despair people themselves become a commodity. It is crucial to know your behaviour and if too hotheaded, allow yourself to stay back. In a hostage situation, the plan is most important. No emotions should take over.

Issues of leadership arise. There is always self-governance in the beginning, without a real leader. However people fall into their niche in frustrations. A single leader is useful: someone to check and oversee, not to give orders – an organiser, someone who can take on and take every member of the group into account. The choice of a leader can be done by a secret ballot. When struggling to survive, any person who can improve a situation becomes a beacon of hope, caution becomes secondary.

NOTE: these notes were taken watching a few episodes from series 1 and 2. I'm not passing any judgement on the correctness of this information, or the usefulness of the series. I couldn't watch more than a few episodes though, it was too much of a 'reality TV show' with all of its bombastic drama for my taste.