Show pageOld revisionsBacklinksBack to top You've loaded an old revision of the document! If you save it, you will create a new version with this data. Media Files ===notes from scenario planning workshop at foam 20120530-31=== (as part of [[:resilients]] and [[future preparedness]]) present: amo,david,rasa,michka,maja,nik ===20120530 (Day 1)=== Annamaria * Food prints project : how to feed future cities > today, working on Molenbeek. * Quite a few scenario building toolkits. * Foodprints > ruler > five different scenarios * Create as symphony of scenarios using the toolkits. * 11 steps process. * Working with Stockholm resilience models. Rasa * Scenarios are about being aware > quicker than actually connecting people and doing the real stuff. David * Photography, design, public policy, food, drugs, and complex systems. * Discovering life in countryside in a cabin. Maja * Design forecasting background > prepare designers to help them act for social changes. * Resilience can be conservative, scenarios bring visionary aspects and fight the apathy. Nik * similar motivation as Maja, happy to discover new toolkits. ===Step 1 : Identify your focal challenge/problem=== * Set a question/challenge You may have a whole set. Tool 1 : Drivers of change cards based on food Questions based on social, env, eco, poli… Identify the first question through this tool. Critical uncertainties. Four scenarios. Decide which matrix we will use. Speculate on what exist, because today we have no experts. Identify the people that would be needed. Map > get the possibilities. Network of people, and connect through those channels. Role of food in the community. Physical stuff What we observe 1) Challenge : division between women and men related to food. Women > buy/grow and eat inside. Not accpetable to eat out. Men > eat out. They are happy when you do it, but they do not find it acceptable for their wives. Exception : street food. Market once a week Flee market once a year > How can street food become more diverse in Molenbeek ? > How can food as a daily routine become an instrument in making eating an all-inclusive experience ? Paradigm shift induced all year long. Farming, distribution, trade, diet > shifts in mindset. From Hungry City's book. Parameters : gender, age, culture. Molenbeek biggest surface area and youth population (60% of Molenbeek is youth, Molenbeek is 1/19 of Brussels region population). People live in appartments. Divided in neighborhoods. High unemployment. People are squeezed between gentrification and Flanders ! Seen as a ghetto, and the most criminal area - even if it may not be the worst. 2) Challenge : perception of Molenbeek > How could food improve the image of Molenbeek ? Positive, food diversity, shops open all the time. 3) Challenge : ramadan. Before sunset : hungry > aggressive. After sunset : sugar rush > fights. Daytime with sandwich > you can attack people. > How do you increase religious tolerance using food ? The challenge finally selected is : > How could food improve the contact and engagement in Molenbeek (trade, distribution, farming and diet) ? ===Step 2 : Set boundaries=== Time > which year, short-term, long-term > 2015 Place : As we are talking of contact, we should identify a hub. Canal, future street, prosperity street, and parvis Saint Jean-Baptiste. ===Step 3 : Mapping Molenbeek=== What is the available material and context to improve things ? Future street > there is the Dutch integration bureau for immigrants. Learn language and stuff. Square (market space) Bakery Green grocers - wonderful turkish women Tea place Rotating chicken places 5 mosks 1 rental church Hair dresser Dumpling take-away Rue de la prospérité School > 2.5-12 years old Rue de l'école VKat > cultural center Buildings along the streets Internal courtyards Station Compte de Flandre Some empty fields with trees Further Soy making Police French cultural center Theatre group who go get coffee in café House to help women get independent and find jobs Arab women solidarity association Park Spontaneous cricket match Waste Traffic Languages Psychological things Destructive against anything coming from an external source. Nothing to do, unemployment… Historical matter Canal was distributing food, flower, grain, coal Transportation/job/habitat Docks and wearhouses Low paid work Get historical photographs. ===Step 4, 5 and 6 : Drivers and critical uncertainties=== Critical uncertainties : select critical points for reaching the objective, and uncertain drivers - not plannable. Concentration of the young generation. 2 Diversity of available food. Urban policy 3 Intolerance 1 Gentrification Fear The others 1 Islamification Affordable food prices Lack of public growing places 2 Waste Climate change, gravity and solar flares Car use 3 Engagement Cultural identity Crime and violence Why growing plants ? Food prices Cultural identity Try to pair them as opposites. Choose two pairs to plot that are absolutely not correlated to assign them to two axis. We choose Food diversity / waste Curiosity / intolerance Generate four scenarios for the four squares - all combinations of words below. ===Step 7 : Vantage points=== Maybe define them after a first development of scenarios. Contextual Different settings for the future Happening here Beyond control because of larger whole Ex : young people, demographics, climate change… Normative Normative positionning is certain. Desirable paths to achieve the objective. Ex : crime reduction, cultural (incl. food) diversity, virtues… Metabolic Development principles, growing system, with life-like processes. Inputs, outputs, flows. Ex : regeneration, food imports, traffic, goods, people, waste. Spatial Specific spatial characteristics Ex : the squeeze, market, destruction, churches Basics for the narrative. Food diversity and curiosity Fiesta Different generations, different cultures Trying things out Colourful, good smells Leave no trace Music Talking Dancing Squeezed Everything is edible All-inclusive Continuous flow Everyone cooks Middle-eastern bazar Hawker center > street food courts Affordable Eater is selective Sharing and reduce variety Food diversity and intolerance Separate meals Eating clubs Inaccessible and selective Provider is selective Food fights Competition and micro-variety Intolerance and food/TV waste TV dinners Waste fights Throw away dinners > fast prepacked food, rotating chickens High crime rate Bad smell Abandoned Eerie quiet and erratic screams Sharp objects Cheap abandoned foods Fast eating Curiosity and waste Freeganism > dumpster diving Street-living Inventive composting Inventive recycling DIY food and compost Only what is available Social contact Tomorrow > names, fresh thoughts on scenario. Position on the ruler. Look the scenarios through diverse characters. [[:Panarchy]] analysis for each scenario. Active, passive and real-time future. Growth, death and organization. ===20120531 (Day 2)=== ===Introductory discussion=== Working with assumptions only arises the danger of having scenarios with no impact. Scenarios Advocacy vehicle Influencing on policy Communication vehicle > assumptions is ok for this. Testing Selecting scenarios 2 and 4, focusing on scenario 2. ===Step 8 : use the foodprints ruler=== Food logistics > Trade and distribution Cultural dimensions > Accessibility and affordability Ecosystem type > Wetland Environmental challenges > Resource depletion Environmental benefits > Maintenance of biodiversity Urban food sources > Food markets Farming methods > Conventional farming Urban elements > Building ===Step 9 : generating the narrative=== Physical environment : crime, corruption, groups, cheating, mafia, wide price range, buildings, lots of rain, cement, no green, bodyguards, shopfronts, eating places in bakcplaces, sound of activity but not visible, resources depletion > price rise > intolerance building up, a club against all the clubs, rats, club entrance are cleaned, biodiversity, food delivery, anthems and flags, pressure on food providers, independant distribution channels, front door guards hire new people for the club. ===Step 10 : identify in which stage of the panarchy we are=== Conservation phase. ===Step 11 : generate three possible futures=== **__Active Future__** People act in the present to shape their future, they are aware of the link between the two, and actively try to bring the future they are waiting for. __Destruction phase...__ Massive food fight, and then supplies run out. Everything turns into sludge on the ground. Police stucks the trucks, no one can move out. No one can see its club members : they are covered in food. Every one is pushed towards the square by javel attack. Fire, plasting bags, dead rats, cardboard, unwashed people, heavy smoke. Everything is stuck. __The following morning...__ Anyway to move in the streets. Inaccessible area. Still some porosity, allowing some people to go out. Amplification and dissipation of power structures. Criminals get stuff in. They sell food against body services : maçonnerie and prostitution. But also… cooperation. People collaborating to build bridges, and sharing the last resources they have. Figgt between collaboration and club lords. Slowly, organisation around values rather than clubs. Sky walks, to avoid touching rotting food. Strange architectural stuff starts to appear > curiosity from outside the city. **__Passive Future__** People do not change their behavior, they are aware of some possible futures, but they do not change anything to their present or try to influence their future. Resource scarcity > diversity and quality reduction > clubs loose of their pride > cheap affordable stuff. Gentrification happen. No one cleans the market > layers of stuff > bulldozers come and destroy everything > gentrification. **__Disconnected real-time future__** People do not care or think about the future. They just live in the present moment without thinking of tomorrow. Helicopters bring people and supplies to the clubs. Poverty gaps. ===Step 12 : Define the normative position=== Compost knowledge. Do something with the TVs. Skywalks ? Put all the TV on the square so that they have to remove it before they have the market. Passive/disconnected future help understanding the normative position and the desirable future. ===Evaluation of the process - Comments on how to improve it=== Final step seeing if we have an answer for the question in the end > write a paragraph. Workshops for composting. Just define a street where you dump your organic waste. It's the interaction between a scenario and people's thought that is interesting. Civilians, Brooklyn, NYC Ruler Added clarity and detail without providing new information. Narrow things down. Tools are for conformation and clarifications, plus looking things at a whole (ex : wetlands). Difficult starting the drivers. Vantage points. Way of defining scenarios. Start the storyline. Help realize you have to create a physical setting, look at the metabolism, in order to end up with a scenario. Ranking drivers. Importance. Uncertainty. > Two most important and uncertain things.Please fill all the letters into the box to prove you're human. 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