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--- the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-12 11:41] – maja
+++ the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-12 14:44] – maja
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 ==== Techniques from the workshop ====
-Experimented with a series of techniques to probe possible futures.
+During the [[https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/|Art of Futuring Workshop]] we experimented with a series of techniques to probe possible futures.
-The techniques included:
 === Divination ===
-Using [[http://superflux.in/index.php/and-now-for-something-completely-different/#|Instant Archetypes]] from Superflux:
+In the introduction round, we used [[http://superflux.in/index.php/and-now-for-something-completely-different/#|Instant Archetypes]] from Superflux...
+<blockquote>... a toolkit for anyone looking to open up possibilities, surface questions and untangle stubborn challenges. A reimagining of the timeless tropes of the Major Arcana for the 21st Century where the Fool is now the Consumer, the Chariot is a Drone, and the Moon is a Meme. </blockquote>
 {{>https://vimeo.com/296869333}}\\
-<blockquote> a toolkit for anyone looking to open up possibilities, surface questions and untangle stubborn challenges. A reimagining of the timeless tropes of the Major Arcana for the 21st Century where the Fool is now the Consumer, the Chariot is a Drone, and the Moon is a Meme. </blockquote>
-=== Futuring card games ===
+=== Card games ===
 Learning to work with constraints, wild cards, Four Archetypal Futures and speculative artefacts
   * [[https://www.kunsten.be/dossiers/internationaal-samenwerken-2/reframing-the-international/about-reframing-the-international#!|Reframing the International]] by Kunstenpunt
   * [[https://situationlab.org/project/the-thing-from-the-future/|The Thing from the Future]] by Situation Lab.
-   * Print your own cards [[http://situationlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FUTURETHING_Print-and-Play.pdf|here]]
 <blockquote> The Thing From The Future is an imagination game that helps players generate countless ideas for artifacts from the future; to amuse, delight, explore, and provoke. </blockquote>
+{{>http://vimeo.com/111582424}}\\
+You can print your own card deck [[http://situationlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FUTURETHING_Print-and-Play.pdf|here]]
@@ Line 34: / Line 39: @@
+Paraphrasing from [[https://www.scribd.com/document/18675626/Art-of-Powerful-Questions|The art of powerful questions]] a powerful question is a three-dimensional one. The three dimensions are: construction, scope and assumptions. Construction is about phrasing of the question (see the paragraphs above) - which words you use can inspire or demotivate people. The scope is about tailoring the question to the capacity of people's action - where can people make immediate difference (e.g. family, organisation, community, global society). Finally, every question will have your or wider assumptions built into it, assumptions that might not be shared in the group. We should be especially aware of negative assumptions (“what did we do wrong?” could be better phrased as “what can we learn from what happened?”). Having a question focus on the problem, can make people defensive or disengaged. It's helpful to check if the question encourages learning, reflection, collaboration and/or exploration rather than blaming, competition or justifying.
+=== Non-predictive strategy ===
+KPUU Framework is a structured technique to think about and discuss the present, based on what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable. KPUU helps distinguish facts from assumptions, uncover what the participants don't know, and define what is unknowable at this time.
+Read more about KPUU here: https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/kpuu_framework
+=== Horizon scanning ===
+Horizon scanning is about tracking change. Analysing current developments undergoing change, such as trends and megatrends and observing change on the micro-scale, looking for possible but improbable changes in the future, also known as weak signals and wild cards.
+Trend is a tendency or direction of change. It can be observed when analysing past and present events, and noticing patterns. Megatrends are long-term transformations, with wide-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing. Something that isn't important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation. You tend to find weak signals when you aren't looking for them. Wild Cards, or "[[black swan]]" events are things that are unlikely to happen, but when they do, they affect massive change.
+Read more about horizon scanning [[:/futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning|here]].
+An example of a horizon scanning aggregate website: http://community.iknowfutures.eu/
+== STEEP analysis ==
+STEEP stands for 'social, technological, environmental, economic and political' factors (aka trends, forces, change drivers) that are external to the system, issue or question examined in the futuring exercise, but can influence it.
+Read more about STEEP analysis [[:/futurist_fieldguide/steep|here]]
+=== Causal Layered Analysis ===
-Non-predictive strategy:
+Causal layered analysis is a futures research method focusing on in-depth analysis of current issues and identifying alternative futures.
-. KPUU (Known, Presumed, Unknown, Unknowable)
+<html><a href="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"><img src="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"></a></html>
-Horizon scanning:
+Read more about applying CLA [[:/futurist_fieldguide/causal_layered_analysis|here]].
-. Macro Trends/ Weak Signals
+<blockquote> As a theory [CLA] seeks to integrate empiricist, interpretive, critical, and action learning modes of knowing. As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. It is also likely to be useful in developing more effective—deeper, inclusive, longer term—policy.
-. Mapping change drivers into STEEP categories
+- [[http://metafuture.org/cla%20papers/Inayatullah%20%20Causal%20layered%20analysis%20-%20theory,%20historical%20context,%20and%20case%20studies.%20Intro%20chapter%20from%20The%20CLA%20Reader..pdf|Sohail Inayatullah]]
-    (Social, Technological,Environmental, Economic, Political)
-. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
+</blockquote>
 . Dot-voting
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   * https://www.zotero.org/groups/235804/future_fabulators/items/collectionKey/I55D6MNC
   * {{ ::future_of_the_world_jenny_andersson_9780198814337_print.pdf |Future of The World}}
+  * [[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bwy8eTupdOeKcWVmRUZHV09vOVU/view|Practical Foresight Guide]]