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the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-12 13:35] – majathe_art_of_futuring [2019-03-12 15:21] – maja
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 === Causal Layered Analysis === === Causal Layered Analysis ===
  
-8. Dot-voting+Causal layered analysis is a futures research method focusing on in-depth analysis of current issues and identifying alternative futures. 
  
-9. Ranking Critical Uncertainties 
  
-10. Sociometry+<html><a href="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"><img src="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"></a></html>
  
-11. U process (presencing/silent reflection)+Read more about applying CLA [[:/futurist_fieldguide/causal_layered_analysis|here]].
  
-12. Scenario building (alternative futures) +<blockquote> As a theory [CLA] seeks to integrate empiricist, interpretive, critical, and action learning modes of knowing. As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. It is also likely to be useful in developing more effective—deeper, inclusive, longer term—policy.  
-    • 2x2 double uncertainty (GBN/Shell) +- [[http://metafuture.org/cla%20papers/Inayatullah%20%20Causal%20layered%20analysis%20-%20theory,%20historical%20context,%20and%20case%20studies.%20Intro%20chapter%20from%20The%20CLA%20Reader..pdf|Sohail Inayatullah]]
-    • scenario logic/scenario skeletons/plot elements+
  
 +</blockquote>  
  
-Incasting: 
  
-13. Answering core question from different vantage points+=== Scenario building ===
  
-14. Visualising scenario answers+We used the 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures.
  
 +The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties:
 +  * reducing the number of change drivers to two critical uncertainties can create tension in participants (but can also work quite well in some situations, when it distills the core of the problem)
 +  * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds.
  
-First-person scenarios:+{{ :resilients:scenario-process-diagram.png?1000 |Visual translation of 'Steps to developing scenarios' by P. Schwartz}}
  
-15. Closed eye visioning / mental time travel+   
 +Read more the GBN approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]
  
-16. Personal backstory+You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml 
 + 
 + 
 + 
 +=== Incasting === 
 + 
 +Incasting is about delving deeper into scenarios to create more complete worlds and stories filled with rich detail. While it's often fairly easy to agree on the general outline of a scenario, elaborating the specifics and complexities can raise surprising and revealing discussions. By exploring the details of a given scenario, various inconsistencies, assumptions and (cognitive) biases can surface. Furthermore, when incasting is applied to familiar contexts and using known formats, the differences and similarities between the present and future can become more apparent and open to further examination. 
 + 
 +At the Art of Futuring workshop we used several approaches to incasting: 
 + 
 +== Answering the core question == 
 + 
 +We asked the core question of the workshop from the vantage points of different scenarios.  four very different answers.  
 + 
 +== Visualising scenario answers == 
 + 
 +The answers were visualised as posters 
 + 
 +== Closed eye visioning / mental time travel == 
 + 
 +== Personal backstory == 
 + 
 +<blockquote> A backstory is a set of events invented for a plot, presented as preceding and leading up to that plot. It is a literary device of a narrative history all chronologically earlier than the narrative of primary interest. (...) It is the history of characters and other elements that underlie the situation existing at the main narrative's start. 
 + 
 +From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backstory </blockquote>
  
  
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 25. Invocation 25. Invocation
 +
 +
 +
 +
 +=== Dot-voting ===
 +
 +Dot-voting is a facilitation method used to describe voting with dot stickers or markers. Dot-voting is widely used for making quick collaborative decisions. It is a quick and simple method for prioritize a long list of options. 
 +
 +Read more about dot-voting here: http://dotmocracy.org/dot-voting/
 +
 +=== Sociometry ===
 +
 +Sociometry is a technique to visualise social relationships. It can show underlying patterns of a group which can be difficult to surface through conversation. A sociometric exercise begins with a question that the group is required to answer by moving in the space and finding appropriate positions for all its members relative to each other.
 +
 +Read more about sociometry [[:/futurist_fieldguide/sociometry|here]].
 +
 +See also the website of the Sociometry Training Network: http://www.sociometry.net/
 +
 +
 +
 +=== U process ===
  
  
  • the_art_of_futuring.txt
  • Last modified: 2024-04-02 12:33
  • by nik