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future_fabulators:background [2014-02-21 08:44] – Links to future_fabulators:scenario_planning changed to future_fabulators:scenario_building majafuture_fabulators:background [2019-03-19 15:48] (current) – maja
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 ==== Background Research ==== ==== Background Research ====
  
-This page aggregates background research that is in progress on the Future Fabulators wiki+This page aggregates background research in progress on the Future Fabulators wiki. This review of related work is far from comprehensive: it is filled with both large gaps and rabbit holes that call for further exploration. If you, dear reader, are interested in following up on any of the (related) topics, we would very much appreciate if you would share your findings, comments, notes or any other form of documentation directly on this wiki.
  
-  * [[possible futures parallel presents]] on design fiction, futurescaping and other prototyping techniques +=== Scenario Thinking === 
-  * [[scenario_building]] has notes and quotes related to building (possible future) scenarios +  * [[scenario building]] has notes and quotes related to building (possible/probable/preferred future) scenarios 
-  * [[scenario methods]] inquires into different methods we can use in scenario building experiments+  * [[scenario methods]] inquires into different methods and techniques we could use in scenario building experiments, including the 2x2 uncertainty matrix, cone of plausibility, FAR, CLA, the Manoa approach and many others. we also look at how to improve elements of the scenario building process (such as creating powerful questions, inquiring into the past and present, horizon/environmental scanning, drivers of change, mapping uncertainty, scenario logics, backcasting, visioning, etc.  
 +    * [[inquiring mind]] explores the questioning mindset 
 +    * [[cognitive bias]] and dealing with assumptions in scenario development; see also [[affective forecasting]] 
 +    * [[kpuu framework]] as a way to map out the present situation 
 +    * [[analogs framework]] looks at comparing past with the present 
 +    * [[formalised decision making]] looks at how to help groups make decisions about what is important and uncertain in a mass of change drivers 
 +    * [[horizon scanning]] and similar identification of change drivers 
 +    * [[field anomaly relaxation]], a scenario building method based on Lewin's social field theory and the related [[morphological analysis]] 
 +    * [[four generic futures]] method of the Manoa School 
 +    * [[integral scenario development]] talks about adopting principles and techniques from integral theory and [[integral futures]] in scenario building 
 +    * [[vuca]] a possible framework for testing resilience of scenarios in the face of turbulence 
 + 
 +=== Prototyping and experiencing possible futures === 
 +  * [[experiential futures]] merging design, futures and politics. see also [[the futures of everyday life]] with reading notes from the thesis by Stuart Candy and  [[guerrilla futures]] (a chapter in the same thesis) 
 +  * [[design fiction]]  or speculative design on the cross-section between design, fiction and future studies 
 +  * [[action foresight]] combining futures studies and action research, including anticipatory action research 
 +  * [[possible futures parallel presents]] looks at creating change in the present using futures techniques without a focus on the future 
 +  * [[red team]] or how to include conflicting positions in real and simulated situations 
 +  * [[prehearsal methods]] looks at fields and disciplines we can borrow from to design future pre-enactments/prehearsals 
 +    * [[prehearsal pocket guide]] designed by FoAM, inherited by FFab from the [[:resilients/future_preparedness/|Resilients' Future Preparedness]] case study 
 +    * [[prehearsing the future]] written by FoAM for the [[:resilients/future_preparedness/|Resilients' Future Preparedness]] case study, describing our motivation behind future pre-enactments/prehearsals 
 + 
 +=== Futures studies === 
 +  * [[https://medium.com/@wendyinfutures/assembling-a-futures-foresight-toolkit-c55a956a3676|Assembling a futures toolkit]] by Wendy Schultz, a good overview of various futuring techniques 
 +  * [[the future of futures]] reflection on the futures of futures studies 
 +  * [[the history of futures]] and a reflection on the past 
 +  * [[integral futures]] and embodied foresight inquiries in the futures with a holistic worldview based on o.a. integral theory of Ken Wilber and others
   * [[non predictive strategy]] looks at ways to avoid the trap of thinking that we can predict the future   * [[non predictive strategy]] looks at ways to avoid the trap of thinking that we can predict the future
-  * [[:/forecasting]] page looks at the reality of forecasting and foresight (on the libarynth, not ffab subwiki) +  * [[crowdsourced futures]] and online/distributed participation in future studies
-  * [[formalised decision making]] looks at how to help groups make decisions +
-  * [[experiential futures]] and other design research approaches +
-  * [[crowdsourced futures]] and participation in future studies +
-  * [[horizon scanning]] and similar identification of change drivers+
   * [[improv foresight]]: notes from a strategy paper looking at improvisation as real time foresight   * [[improv foresight]]: notes from a strategy paper looking at improvisation as real time foresight
 +  * [[:/forecasting]] page looks at the wider world of forecasting and foresight (on the libarynth, not ffab subwiki)
 +  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_Futures_studies|Wiki Prokect on Future Studies]]
  
-  * further reading can be found on the [[references]] page 
  
 +=== Thriving in turbulence ===
 +
 +  * [[strategies for antifragility]] and [[taleb s rules|Taleb's Rules]]
 +  * [[doing democracy]] talks about principles for creating and maintaining social movements
 +  * [[rewilding etiquette]] on the possible futures of manners by Karl Schroeder
 +  * [[Non Predictive Strategy]] - reducing depending on scenarios
 +
 +
 +=== Miscellaneous ===
 +
 +  * [[antipodean_musings|musings]] from the Future Fabulators research retreat by Maja Kuzmanovic and Nik Gaffney
 +  * further reading can be found on the [[references]] page
   * a rather unstructured collection of thought processes can be found on the [[confabulations]] page   * a rather unstructured collection of thought processes can be found on the [[confabulations]] page
 +
 +NOTE: other relevant pages can be found by following links on each of the pages above, as well as looking through the [[http://lib.fo.am/future_fabulators/?do=recent|recent changes]] on this wiki
 +
 +
 +<blockquote>My work is that of a limited man who must deal with a limitless situation --Paul Virilio</blockquote>
 +
 +

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