Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

--- future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 07:53] – [misc/sort] nik
+++ future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-02 11:52] – michka
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ==== Food Horizons ====
-a page to collect drivers of change related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/
+a page to collect drivers of change and [[horizon scanning]] notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/
 eg.
 https://delicious.com/zzkt/food \\
 http://agalmic.org/tagged/food
+====Trends per Type====
+Horizon: less than 50 years.
+">" means "inducing"
+[in square brackets are the references] **NO`tE:** you can also add footnotes like so((well researched and referenced))
+===Social===
+===Technological===
+   * Development of "resource-efficient" large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation...) [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?|(in french), article on Reporterre on French government's strategy towards "industrial agro-ecology"]]
+     * > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4054|(in French), article on Reporterre on adverse environmental effects of large-scale methanisation]]
+   * Development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share [[http://rue89.nouvelobs.com/2014/03/29/mobilisation-generale-contre-grand-mechant-marche-transatlantique-251038|(in French), article on how the US-EU free-trade zone will bring GMO food to Europe]]
+     * > unknown health effects
+   * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers ([[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12267561|promoted by Right-to-Food special rapporteur Olivier de Schutter]]) > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects and mitigating the risk of such effects.
+   * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23576143|the lab-grown hamburger]])
+     * > only for very rich people, with [[http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/08/is-lab-grown-meat-good-for-us/278778/|unknown impact on health]].
+===Environmental===
+   * increasing pollution of water, soil and atmosphere
+     * > increasing systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines
+     * > potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.
+   * Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
+   * Changes in desertification and rainfall patterns > decrease of available arable soil surface > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
+   * Climate change
+     * Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, e.g. Floods & Droughts
+       * > localized food scarcity;
+       * > when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economic trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.
+     * Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.
+       * See detailed results from IPCC report below.
+   * Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of edible animal & plant species > reduced resilience to change in seasonal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+     * > geopolitical instability.
+   * Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on "traveling food" prices > when combined with increased inequities in personal wealth (see Economical Ttrends), reduce of food ingredients availability for most of the population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+     * > geopolitical instability.
+reference: IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7 "Food Security and Food Production Systems" http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FGDall.pdf
+{{ar5_fig_spm_2a.png}}
+IPCC AR5 WG2 Figure SPM.2a
+==Change in Plant Crops Production==
+   * India: global loss in cereal production.
+   * Brazil: loss in cereal, drastic increase in beans.
+   * US: no big change in cerelas, slight increase in Soy
+   * Europe:
+     * Increase in plant crops in Boreal, Alpine, North & Central Atlantic & South Continental climates.
+     * Moderate change in Continental North.
+     * Decrease in Atlantic South & Mediterranean climates.
+   * Australia: global decrease.
+==Change in Livestock Production==
+   * Africa: less Livestock & Dairy
+   * Europe:
+     * France: no impact on dairy yield, but impact both positive and negative + instability on forage fields.
+     * Italy & Netherlands: bad for mozzarella & gouda
+     * Disease increase: Bluetongue virus
+   * Oceania: decrease everywhere but South Australia.
+   * South America:
+     * Andean mountains: decrease of every livestock but sheep, which increase.
+     * Argentina & Chile: more beef cattle.
+     * Columbia, Venezuela & Ecuador: less beef cattle.
+   * North America: strong decrease of Dairy yields.
+{{ :future_fabulators:giec_figure_ge_ne_rale_-_copie.jpg?800 |}}
+===Economic===
+   * Increased globalization of economy
+     * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+     * Hyper-[[http://www.postcarbon.org/article/305585-specialization-and-globalization-genies-at-our|specialisation]] of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+   * Increased financiarisation of economy
+     * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people;
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population;
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+   * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+     * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+     * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+     * > geopolitical instability.
+   * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4806|(in French) integral cooperatives]], local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives
+     * > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale
+       * > better global health at local population scale.
+   * Global game changer: if a major demographic group, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income. It is about to be [[http://bien.ch/fr/node/417|voted by the population in Switzerland]] and has been proposed as a [[http://basicincome2013.eu/|popular initiative in Europe]]
+     * > [[http://www.projet-decroissance.net/?p=1640|depending on how it would be defined]], it may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics and may induced better global health & wellness results.
+===Demographic===
+   * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + food heavily polluted or low in nutrients > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
+   * Increase of urban population
+     * Massive amount of energy used to bring food to urban citizens
+       * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+         * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+         * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+         * > geopolitical instability.
+       * > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to massive transport
+         * > adverse health effects.
+     * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+===Cultural===
+   * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...)
+     * > existing demand stimulates production & thus industrial agriculture
+       * > pollution
+         * > adverse health effects
+     * > low food diversity
+       * > adverse health effects
+   * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?)
+     * > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ?
+   * Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health.
+===Political===
+   * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http://blogs.mediapart.fr/blog/malto-cortese/221113/agriculteurs-et-jardiniers-seront-ils-bientot-obliges-de-cultiver-dans-la-clandestinite|(in French), an article from Mediapart on seeds patenting]]
+     * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture.
+     * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food
+       * > starvation for specific locations & poor people
+       * > adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population
+       * > geopolitical instability.
+   * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements [[http://www.lesinrocks.com/2012/05/29/actualite/le-fantasme-dune-arme-de-nonazis-11262225/|(in French), an article from les Inrocks analysing the situation of far-right parties in Europe]] > (violent) incentive back to traditional culture, and therefore cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ?
 ====misc/sort====