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a page to collect drivers of change and horizon scanning notes related to food, health and wellness, to design scenarios and a menu for http://fo.am/late-lab-open-sauces/

eg. https://delicious.com/zzkt/food
http://agalmic.org/tagged/food

Horizon: less than 50 years.

“>” means “inducing”

[in square brackets are the references]

Social

Technological

  • Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects.

Environmental

  • Massive pollution of water, soil and atmosphere > increased systemic diseases such as cancer & neurodegenerative medicines; potentially contributing to a loss in biodiversity.
  • Decrease of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  • Increase of desertification > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people, adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  • Climate change
    • Increase of Extreme Climatic Events, f. i. Floods & Droughts > localized high food scarcity; when combined with hyper-specialization of food crops per location (see Economical trends), world-wide scarcity of specific ingredients.
    • Change in seasonal patterns and average climatic conditions > change of food crops production balance worldwide.
  • Decrease of Biodiversity > decrease of available food crops; reduced resilience to change in seasinal patterns & climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  • Decrease of available energetic resources > Increase on “traveling food” prices > when combined with increased inequities in personal wealth (see Economical Ttrends), reduce of food ingredients availability for most of the population (see Economical trends) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

Economical

  • Increased globalization of economy
    • Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
    • Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  • Increased financiarisation of economy
    • Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  • Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  • To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as integral cooperatives (in French) integral cooperatives, local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale > better global health at local population scale.
  • Global game changer: if a major demographic population, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income… > may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics > may induced better global health & wellness results.

Demographic

  • Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  • Increase of urban population
    • Massive amount of energy needed to bring food to urban citizens
      • > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
      • > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to transport industry > adverse health effects.
    • Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.

Cultural

  • Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ?
  • Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki…)
  • Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), at least localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health.

Political

  • Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties (in French), an article from Mediapart on seeds patenting
    • > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture.
    • > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability.
  • Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements (in French), an article from les Inrocks analysing the situation of far-right parties in Europe > (violent) incentive back to traditional culture, and therefore cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ?

Boiling it down

  • future_fabulators/food_horizons.1396370146.txt.gz
  • Last modified: 2014-04-01 16:35
  • by michka
  • Currently locked by: 38.153.170.26