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futurist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-05-12 12:55] – maja | futurist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-05-20 14:06] (current) – alkan | ||
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- | ==== The Schwartz/GBN Approach ==== | + | ==== The Schwartz/Global Business Network |
- | This approach outlines how to build a scenario based on the model presented by Peter Schwartz in //The Art of the Long View//. It is one of the most commonly used scenario methods. The process is quite simple and can be easily implemented by novice facilitators. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which are more like caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. | + | This approach outlines how to build a scenario based on the model presented by Peter Schwartz in //The Art of the Long View//. It is one of the most commonly used scenario methods. The process is quite simple and can be easily implemented by novice facilitators. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful |
The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: | The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: | ||
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* the 2x2 matrix highlights ' | * the 2x2 matrix highlights ' | ||
- | At FoAM we use the GBN approach when a group has a complex but burning question. In these situations finding out what is most important and also most uncertain can illuminate the issue even without creating scenarios. Furthermore it is simple enough that it can be completed in a one-day or even half-day workshop (with some online follow-up afterwards). | + | At FoAM we use the Global Business Network (GBN) approach when a group has a complex but burning question. In these situations finding out what is most important and also most uncertain can illuminate the issue even without creating scenarios. Furthermore, it is simple enough that it can be completed in a one-day or even half-day workshop (with some online follow-up afterwards). |
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+ | === Process === | ||
- | ===Step 1: Focal Issue === | + | == Step 1: Focal Issue == |
- | Identify | + | __Identify |
- | Think about what is vital to your situation and formulate your focal issue as a question. A good way to start might be to ask yourself, | + | Think about what is vital to your situation and formulate your focal issue as a question. A good way to start might be to ask yourself, |
- | The key question can be phrased as something specific, along the lines of "Should we do A or B?" | + | The key question can be phrased as something specific, along the lines of //'Should we do A or B?'// |
It is essential to identify and explore the question with everyone involved and to agree that the question is fundamental for the future. Take your time to define a clear and memorable question and try to phrase it succinctly, as you will need to keep it in mind throughout the following steps. | It is essential to identify and explore the question with everyone involved and to agree that the question is fundamental for the future. Take your time to define a clear and memorable question and try to phrase it succinctly, as you will need to keep it in mind throughout the following steps. | ||
- | ===Step 2: Factors=== | + | == Step 2: Factors == |
- | Map the local situation and identify important | + | __Map the local situation and identify important |
Discuss what factors have an impact on the context or situation that will influence the outcome of your key question: people, places, resources (material, immaterial), | Discuss what factors have an impact on the context or situation that will influence the outcome of your key question: people, places, resources (material, immaterial), | ||
- | If you prefer a more structured conversation, | + | If you prefer a more structured conversation, |
- | ===Step 3: Drivers | + | == Step 3: Drivers == |
- | Identify | + | __Identify |
- | Research what emerging forces | + | Research what emerging forces have an impact on your local situation. Depending on whether you want to construct your scenario based on facts or more subjective assumptions of the people involved, you can do two things: |
- | * Research in depth and breadth: make an extensive survey about what changes in the wider context in which you operate. In futurist jargon this is called ' | + | * Research in depth and breadth: make an extensive survey about what changes in the wider context in which you operate. In futurist jargon this is called ' |
* Collect drivers from the group: discuss and list the key driving forces as the people in the group perceive them. It can still be useful to go through the STEEP/STEP categories to help make a comprehensive list of drivers. The outcome of this exercise will be strongly coloured by the perceptions, | * Collect drivers from the group: discuss and list the key driving forces as the people in the group perceive them. It can still be useful to go through the STEEP/STEP categories to help make a comprehensive list of drivers. The outcome of this exercise will be strongly coloured by the perceptions, | ||
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Make a list of all the driving forces you have discovered. | Make a list of all the driving forces you have discovered. | ||
- | ===Step 4: Ranking | + | == Step 4: Ranking == |
- | Rank driving forces | + | __Rank |
Identify the most important driving forces for the outcome of your key question. You can rank them on a scale from 1--10 from least to most important. Alternatively you can use a more relative measure (e.g. drawing a horizontal line and placing the drivers from left to right: important -> very important -> extremely important -> essential. | Identify the most important driving forces for the outcome of your key question. You can rank them on a scale from 1--10 from least to most important. Alternatively you can use a more relative measure (e.g. drawing a horizontal line and placing the drivers from left to right: important -> very important -> extremely important -> essential. | ||
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//Note: When the local factors seem to be where the core issue of a group lies, we rank both the local factors and external driving forces based on importance and uncertainty. This means that our scenario axes could be a mix of internal and external forces.// | //Note: When the local factors seem to be where the core issue of a group lies, we rank both the local factors and external driving forces based on importance and uncertainty. This means that our scenario axes could be a mix of internal and external forces.// | ||
- | ===Step 5: Critical uncertainties | + | == Step 5: Critical uncertainties == |
- | Select | + | __Select |
Select one to three (usually two) of the 'most important and most uncertain' | Select one to three (usually two) of the 'most important and most uncertain' | ||
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Plot the axes on a large piece of paper. If you have just one critical uncertainty, | Plot the axes on a large piece of paper. If you have just one critical uncertainty, | ||
- | ===Step 6: Scenarios | + | == Step 6: Scenarios == |
- | Create | + | __Create |
Review what would happen with each of your critical uncertainties in different scenarios. Bring different change drivers and local factors into the scenarios. What would happen to them in different worlds? How did the wider world evolve from the present to this particular future? How did your local situation change? Who are the main protagonists in this world? | Review what would happen with each of your critical uncertainties in different scenarios. Bring different change drivers and local factors into the scenarios. What would happen to them in different worlds? How did the wider world evolve from the present to this particular future? How did your local situation change? Who are the main protagonists in this world? | ||
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In a group, come up with an outline, a ' | In a group, come up with an outline, a ' | ||
- | === Step 7: Answers | + | == Step 7: Answers == |
Take a step back to get a sense what each of the worlds look like. How would you answer your core question (step 1) from each of the scenarios? What would your decisions look like in different futures? Explore what would have to happen to get from where you are now to the situation in the scenario. What opportunities and threats do you see in each of the worlds? | Take a step back to get a sense what each of the worlds look like. How would you answer your core question (step 1) from each of the scenarios? What would your decisions look like in different futures? Explore what would have to happen to get from where you are now to the situation in the scenario. What opportunities and threats do you see in each of the worlds? | ||
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- | === Step 8: Signals and Indicators | + | == Step 8: Signals and Indicators == |
- | Identify | + | __Identify |
Discuss the scenarios related to the actual situation and the people involved. Each of the scenarios in this exercise is more or less likely to unfold. It is interesting to observe which one the participants find most probable, which ones they prefer and which they dislike and why. Discuss the gaps and inconsistencies in the scenarios and find out where more information should be gathered from the micro or macro environments. | Discuss the scenarios related to the actual situation and the people involved. Each of the scenarios in this exercise is more or less likely to unfold. It is interesting to observe which one the participants find most probable, which ones they prefer and which they dislike and why. Discuss the gaps and inconsistencies in the scenarios and find out where more information should be gathered from the micro or macro environments. | ||
- | After getting a sense of how the group feels about the scenarios, identify trends or weak signals that could point to changes in the present moving towards one or the other scenario. Invite participants to use these signals to inform their decisions. | + | After getting a sense of how the group feels about the scenarios, identify trends or weak signals that could point to changes in the present moving towards one or the other scenario. Invite participants to use these signals to inform their decisions. |
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- | {{ : | + | {{ : |
Adapted from: Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley http:// | Adapted from: Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley http:// | ||