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--- resilients:scenario_workshop_201205 [2012-05-31 08:57] – created nik
+++ resilients:scenario_workshop_201205 [2016-08-10 09:48] (current) – nik
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ===notes from scenario planning workshop at foam 20120530-31===
-(as part of [[:resilients]] and [[future preparedness]])
+(as part of [[:resilients]] and [[future_preparedness]]. [[:workshop notes]]. )
 present: amo,david,rasa,michka,maja,nik
@@ Line 31: / Line 31: @@
 ===Step 1 : Identify your focal challenge/problem===
-	Set a question/challenge
+  * Set a question/challenge
-	You may have a whole set.
+ 	You may have a whole set.
-	Tool 1 : Drivers of change cards based on food
+ 	Tool 1 : Drivers of change cards based on food
-		Questions based on social, env, eco, poli…
+ 		Questions based on social, env, eco, poli…
-	Identify the first question through this tool.
+ 	Identify the first question through this tool.
 	Critical uncertainties.
@@ Line 246: / Line 246: @@
 Position on the ruler.
 Look the scenarios through diverse characters.
-Panarchy for each scenario.
+[[:Panarchy]] analysis for each scenario.
 		Active, passive and real-time future.
 		Growth, death and organization.
+===20120531 (Day 2)===
+===Introductory discussion===
+Working with assumptions only arises the danger of having scenarios with no impact.
+Scenarios
+	Advocacy vehicle
+		Influencing on policy
+	Communication vehicle > assumptions is ok for this.
+		Testing
+Selecting scenarios 2 and 4, focusing on scenario 2.
+===Step 8 : use the foodprints ruler===
+Food logistics > Trade and distribution
+Cultural dimensions > Accessibility and affordability
+Ecosystem type > Wetland
+Environmental challenges > Resource depletion
+Environmental benefits > Maintenance of biodiversity
+Urban food sources > Food markets
+Farming methods > Conventional farming
+Urban elements > Building
+===Step 9 : generating the narrative===
+Physical environment : crime, corruption, groups, cheating, mafia, wide price range, buildings, lots of rain, cement, no green, bodyguards, shopfronts, eating places in bakcplaces, sound of activity but not visible, resources depletion > price rise > intolerance building up, a club against all the clubs, rats, club entrance are cleaned, biodiversity, food delivery, anthems and flags, pressure on food providers, independant distribution channels, front door guards hire new people for the club.
+===Step 10 : identify in which stage of the panarchy we are===
+Conservation phase.
+===Step 11 : generate three possible futures===
+**__Active Future__**
+	People act in the present to shape their future, they are aware of the link between the two, and actively try to bring the future they are waiting for.
+__Destruction phase...__
+Massive food fight, and then supplies run out.
+Everything turns into sludge on the ground.
+Police stucks the trucks, no one can move out.
+No one can see its club members : they are covered in food.
+Every one is pushed towards the square by javel attack.
+Fire, plasting bags, dead rats, cardboard, unwashed people, heavy smoke.
+Everything is stuck.
+__The following morning...__
+Anyway to move in the streets. Inaccessible area. Still some porosity, allowing some people to go out.
+Amplification and dissipation of power structures.
+Criminals get stuff in. They sell food against body services : maçonnerie and prostitution.
+But also… cooperation. People collaborating to build bridges, and sharing the last resources they have.
+Figgt between collaboration and club lords.
+Slowly, organisation around values rather than clubs.
+Sky walks, to avoid touching rotting food.
+Strange architectural stuff starts to appear > curiosity from outside the city.
+**__Passive Future__**
+	People do not change their behavior, they are aware of some possible futures, but they do not change anything to their present or try to influence their future.
+Resource scarcity > diversity and quality reduction > clubs loose of their pride > cheap affordable stuff.
+Gentrification happen.
+No one cleans the market > layers of stuff > bulldozers come and destroy everything > gentrification.
+**__Disconnected real-time future__**
+	People do not care or think about the future. They just live in the present moment without thinking of tomorrow.
+Helicopters bring people and supplies to the clubs.
+Poverty gaps.
+===Step 12 : Define the normative position===
+Compost knowledge.
+Do something with the TVs. Skywalks ?
+Put all the TV on the square so that they have to remove it before they have the market.
+Passive/disconnected future help understanding the normative position and the desirable future.
+===Evaluation of the process - Comments on how to improve it===
+Final step seeing if we have an answer for the question in the end > write a paragraph.
+Workshops for composting.
+Just define a street where you dump your organic waste.
+It's the interaction between a scenario and people's thought that is interesting.
+Civilians, Brooklyn, NYC
+Ruler
+	Added clarity and detail without providing new information.
+	Narrow things down.
+Tools are for conformation and clarifications, plus looking things at a whole (ex : wetlands).
+Difficult starting the drivers.
+Vantage points.
+	Way of defining scenarios.
+	Start the storyline.
+	Help realize you have to create a physical setting, look at the metabolism, in order to end up with a scenario.
+Ranking drivers.
+	Importance.
+	Uncertainty.
+	> Two most important and uncertain things.