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| future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 15:23] – michka | future_fabulators:food_horizons [2014-04-01 16:35] – michka |
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| ====Trends per Type==== | ====Trends per Type==== |
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| For < 50 years. | Horizon: less than 50 years. |
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| | ">" means "inducing" |
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| | [in square brackets are the references] |
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| ===Social=== | ===Social=== |
| ===Technological=== | ===Technological=== |
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| * Development of "resource-efficient" large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation...) > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity | * Development of "resource-efficient" large-scale agriculture techniques (agro-ecological systems using bio-sourced fertilizers, methanisation...) [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?|(in french), article on Reporterre on French government's strategy towards "industrial agro-ecology"]] |
| * Appearance of luxury technofood (like the lab-grown hamburger) > only for very rich people, with unknown impact on health | * > adverse environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction in biodiversity [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4054|(in French), article on Reporterre on adverse environmental effects of large-scale methanisation]] |
| * Increase of GMO-food & seeds market share > probable adverse health effects, such as cancers [Gilles Seralini] | |
| * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers, holding the know-how for a potential rise after collapse. | * Development of GMO technology > combined with increased globalization of economy (see Economical trends), increase of GMO-food & GMO-seeds market share [[http://rue89.nouvelobs.com/2014/03/29/mobilisation-generale-contre-grand-mechant-marche-transatlantique-251038|(in French), article on how the US-EU free-trade zone will bring GMO food to Europe]] |
| | * > unknown health effects |
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| | * Existing minority, stable or decreasing, of small-scale sustainable farmers > preserving bio- and techno-diversity > increasing resilience to environmental crisis negative effects. |
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| | * Appearance of luxury technofood (like [[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23576143|the lab-grown hamburger]]) |
| | * > only for very rich people, with [[http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/08/is-lab-grown-meat-good-for-us/278778/|unknown impact on health]]. |
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| ===Environmental=== | ===Environmental=== |
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| * Increased globalization of economy | * Increased globalization of economy |
| * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility | * Prevalence of large-scale over small-scale food production > environmental impacts such as pollution & reduction of soil fertility > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. |
| * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends); what happens when transport becomes more expensive ? | * Hyper-specialisation of food crops grown on a given territory > reduced resilience to extreme climatic events (see Environmental trends) > potentially massive scarcity of a essential food crops > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. |
| * Increased financiarisation of economy | * Increased financiarisation of economy |
| * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > Reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > Adverse health effects such as obesity, cancers & neurodegenerative diseases due to massive exposition to polluted food | * Adverse effects of speculation on food prices > combined with increasing inequities in personal wealth, reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. |
| * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > Reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > Adverse health effects such as obesity, cancers & neurodegenerative diseases due to massive exposition to polluted food | * Increasing inequities in personal wealth > reduction of food availability and diversity for most of the world population > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. |
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| | * To a minor extent, localized alternative economies, such as integral cooperatives [[http://www.reporterre.net/spip.php?article4806|(in French) integral cooperatives]], local currencies, barter networks & gift economy initiatives > reduces inequities within economic players at local scale > better global health at local population scale. |
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| | * Global game changer: if a major demographic population, global economic player & industrial producer installs basic income... > may reverse the large-scale industrial dynamics > may induced better global health & wellness results. |
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| ===Demographic=== | ===Demographic=== |
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| * Increase of global population > More food needed | * Increase of global population > more food needed > combined with reduction of soil availability & fertility, reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. |
| * Increase of urban population | * Increase of urban population |
| * Massive amount of energy needed to bring food to urban citizens > Increase resource depletion | * Massive amount of energy needed to bring food to urban citizens |
| * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils | * > increase energetic resource depletion rate (also needed for industrial food production) > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. |
| | * > increase of atmospheric, water and soil pollution due to transport industry > adverse health effects. |
| | * Increased urban pressure on neighboring fertile soils > Reducing availability of fertile soils > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. |
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| ===Cultural=== | ===Cultural=== |
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| * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) | * Most prevalent religions & related food regimes (Pork-free Islam & Bee-free hinduism ?) > changing the demand thus the production balance of food crops at world scale ? |
| * Prevalent cultural impact to the food still produced industrially (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) | * Prevalent cultural preference to industrially-produced food (Nestlé, McDonalds, Pizza Hut, Exki...) |
| * Moderate rise of GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements | * Minority, stable or increasing, adhering to the GASAPs, Slow Food & Organic Food movements > combined with participation to alternative economic systems (see Economical trends), at least localized positive impacts on available food diversity & global health. |
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| ===Political=== | ===Political=== |
| | * Increase of patenting & decrease of authorized crop varieties [[http://blogs.mediapart.fr/blog/malto-cortese/221113/agriculteurs-et-jardiniers-seront-ils-bientot-obliges-de-cultiver-dans-la-clandestinite|(in French), an article from Mediapart on seeds patenting]] |
| * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements > back to traditional cooking & reduced diversity of cooking | * > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking > global impoverishment of food culture. |
| * Increase of patenting & reduction of authorized varieties > reduction of animal & plant species available for cooking. | * > decreased resilience to change in seasonal patterns & average climatic conditions > reduction of available quantity & diversity of food + most of the food heavily polluted > starvation for specific locations & poor people; adverse health effects for a wide range of the world population; geopolitical instability. |
| | * Increase of far-right, nationalist and identity-focused movements [[http://www.lesinrocks.com/2012/05/29/actualite/le-fantasme-dune-arme-de-nonazis-11262225/|(in French), an article from les Inrocks analysing the situation of far-right parties in Europe]] > (violent) incentive back to traditional culture, and therefore cooking > reduction of food ingredients diversity at local scale ? |
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| ===Boiling it down=== | ===Boiling it down=== |
maja