GLOBAL TRENDS 2030: ALTERNATIVE WORLDS as seen by the US National Intelligence Council »

There is no denying that imagining possible futures is interesting. The problem, however, is that despite the fact scenario planning has been with us for nearly forty years now, we’re still not very good at forecasting the future. And perhaps this is not surprising, as the number of possible scenarios grows exponentially when we look ahead just a few months, let alone years. Any forecasting exercise involving human interaction is ultimately flawed. It seems we just don’t have to tools for thinking about the future of society and business in the long run. Beyond what we call ‘epistemic arrogance’ or to put it more simply, imagining that people can predict things about people, professional forecasters commit three errors.

Future State 2030* from KPMG “The megatrends impacting governments into 2030 as they relate to changes in individuals, the global economy and physical environment.”

see also world in 2030, world in 2034, etc

(documented exercizes of forecasting and prediction)

  • future_fabulators/world_in_2030.txt
  • Last modified: 2014-06-27 09:55
  • by nik